Federal Reserve raises rates 25bp to 3.75%-4%, first hike since July 2023
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first rate hike since July 2023, ending a three-year pause. The unanimous 12-0 FOMC vote cited persistent inflation and rising global energy prices from geopolitical conflicts. The dot plot shows most officials expect one more hike this year, with 2026 PCE inflation forecast raised to 3.7%. The White House called the decision "regrettable."
Reference imageEditorial responsibility
- No named human review is recorded for this page.
- Reports are grouped by semantic similarity and deterministic rules. Language models may assist titles, summaries, translation and cross-source analysis; the page reads the event directly, while its address stays stable when the title changes.
- Summary covers the current reports
Cross-source coverage
Common ground
- The Fed's rate hike is performative, driven by a loss of credibility and fear of being wrong again, rather than solid economic data.
- The rate hike disproportionately harms the Global South through currency collapses, rising debt costs, and higher food prices.
- The current global financial system was built by colonial powers and concentrates power in a few hands, leaving vulnerable countries with no real voice.
- Neither the US-led system nor China's alternatives truly serve the interests of people in the Global South.
- The debate often ignores the human reality—families in places like Beirut and Cairo struggling to afford basic needs due to decisions made far away.
Points of contention
- Whether China's currency swaps and BRICS mechanisms are a genuine alternative to dollar hegemony or just a slower form of imperialism.
- Whether the Fed's actions are a result of structural flaws in a unipolar system or simply poor domestic policy and institutional cowardice.
- Whether the solution is a multipolar financial system or a completely new, democratic global architecture that neither Washington nor Beijing controls.
- Whether the data (like Core PCE) is a useful guide or a privileged metric that ignores the real-world impact on the Global South.
- Whether countries in the Global South have genuine choice or are simply choosing between two forms of dependency.
Blind spots
- The debate largely ignores the possibility of a genuinely democratic global financial system that is not controlled by any major power.
- There is little discussion of concrete steps to give countries in the Global South real bargaining power and economic sovereignty.
- The focus on which empire is worse avoids the deeper issue that the entire system is designed for extraction, not development.
- The human cost—like families choosing between medicine and rent—is often treated as a side note rather than the central issue.
WorldAttention’s read
The Fed's rate hike is a symptom of a broken global financial system where the people who suffer most have no say in the decisions that ruin them. While there is broad agreement that the current system is unjust and that the hike is a performative act of panic, the panel remains divided on whether China's alternatives offer a real escape or just a different kind of trap. The most honest truth, voiced by the Regional Agent, is that neither Washington nor Beijing will build a system that truly serves the Global South. Until we confront the colonial roots of global finance and build institutions that center human outcomes over imperial competition, every rate hike will repeat the same story with different victims.
Reporting timeline
Fed May Not Have Entered New Rate Hike Cycle Despite September Increase
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, the first hike in three years, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The move was driven by persistently high inflation, with the Fed aiming to return it to the 2% target. While some Fed officials, including Jeffrey Schmid and Neel Kashkari, have signaled hawkish stances, citing broad-based inflation and the impact of oil prices, analysts suggest this may not mark the start of a new tightening cycle. AllianceBernstein argues the hike is a policy adjustment rather than a new cycle, noting no official expects rates to rise more than 75 basis points. They forecast a possible further 25-basis-point hike in December, but a pause in early 2024 if inflation eases. ICBC International's chief economist Cheng Shi emphasizes that future policy will depend on inflation persistence, cost pass-through, and labor market conditions. The article highlights that the Fed's focus remains on inflation data, with Chairman Powell indicating decisions will be guided by medium-term trends rather than single data points, though the August CPI surprise may have influenced the September decision.
Read sourceFed's Kashkari Says Inflation Too High Across Economy, Hints at More Hikes
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari stated on Sunday that inflation remains too high across all sectors of the U.S. economy, not just in rising oil prices. He emphasized that the Fed's job is to bring inflation back to its 2% target, but interest rate policy cannot address geopolitical factors like the Strait of Hormuz or oil prices. The Fed recently voted unanimously to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and the 'dot plot' indicates most officials expect at least one more 25-basis-point hike this year. Rate futures markets show a two-thirds probability of the policy rate landing in the 4.00%-4.25% range by end-2026, with a strong chance of at least one more 25-basis-point increase by mid-2027. Other Fed officials, including Kevin Warsh and Jeff Schmid, echoed similar hawkish views, noting that inflation is broad-based and not solely energy-driven. According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the October meeting is 56.5%. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have both revised their forecasts to predict a rate hike in October.
Read sourceFed's Kashkari Says Inflation Still Too High, Spreading Across US Economy
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari stated that inflation remains too high and has spread beyond the impact of oil price shocks from the Middle East conflict, affecting all parts of the U.S. economy. The Fed recently raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, the first hike since July 2023, aiming to curb inflation. Fed Chair Warsh described the move as withdrawing some accommodation. The Fed's latest projections show PCE inflation not returning to the 2% target until 2029, later than previously expected. Kashkari, who favored a rate hike in July, warned that waiting too long risks entrenched inflation. He noted the economy remains resilient with a strong labor market, and expressed hope that easing conflicts and economic growth could help lower inflation. The Fed's dot plot indicates most officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, with the median federal funds rate forecast at 4.1% by end of 2026, signaling a higher-for-longer policy path.
Read sourceShow 17 older updatesHide older updates
Fed Hikes Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4%, Signals Higher Long-Term Rate Path Amid Inflation Risks
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resuming hikes for the first time since July 2023. The decision was unanimous. The dot plot signaled one more hike expected by most officials this year, with medium-to-long-term rate projections revised upward: the 2027 rate center rose to 4.1% from 3.6%. Inflation language turned hawkish, with Chair Warsh stating inflation is 'too high' and the committee lacks confidence in reaching the 2% target. Economic growth forecasts were raised, with AI-related capital expenditure cited as a key driver. Market reaction was hawkish: the dollar rose, Treasury yields increased, and stocks fell. Chen Xing, Chief Macro Analyst at Huafu Securities, assesses that tight labor market conditions persist and inflation risks remain elevated due to energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and AI-related demand. He expects long-term U.S. Treasury yields to align with potential growth, leaving room for further increases.
Read sourceCITIC Securities Forecasts One More Fed Rate Hike This Year, Possible Hold Next Year
On September 17, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.0%, in line with market expectations. This is the first rate increase since July 2023. The Fed cited persistent inflation and rising global energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts as reasons for the move, noting that current policy is insufficient to reach its 2% inflation target. Surging energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have increased pressure on the Fed, fueling expectations of further hikes. CITIC Securities forecasts one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year, with rates likely holding steady next year, and advises investors to seek fundamentally supported assets rather than those relying on liquidity. Huatai Securities sees a diminished need for an October hike and expects a December increase as the base case. The Fed's rate path through 2027 will depend on economic data, particularly labor market improvements and inflation trends.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Key Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points, First Hike Since July 2023
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023 and ending a pause of over three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed, with market expectations for further hikes rising. The Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long. The dot plot indicated that 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases. This follows 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, six rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025, and five consecutive steady meetings from January to July this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, First Hike Since July 2023
On September 16 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a pause of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons for the move, stating that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly raised forecasts for inflation and economic growth this year, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised up to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on price stability, noting inflation remains elevated. The dot plot indicated that 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases. This follows 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, six rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025, and five consecutive holds from January to July this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After More Than Three Years
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a pause of over three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have added pressure, with market expectations for further hikes rising. The Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward from 3.8% to 4.1%, and projections for 2027 and 2028 were each raised by 50 basis points. Fed Chair Warsh stated the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long. The dot plot indicated 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases. This follows 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, six rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025, and five consecutive holds from January to July this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After More Than Three Years
On September 16 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, raising the benchmark rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This marks the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a hiatus of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent surges in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed. According to the Summary of Economic Projections, officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward from 3.8% to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that U.S. inflation remains elevated. The Fed's dot plot showed that 12 out of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a pause of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have added pressure. The Summary of Economic Projections showed slightly raised forecasts for inflation and economic growth this year, with the median unemployment rate forecast lowered from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long. The dot plot indicated that 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases. This follows 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, six rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025, and five consecutive holds from January to July this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a hiatus of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent surges in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have increased market expectations for further rate hikes. According to the Summary of Economic Projections, officials slightly raised forecasts for inflation and economic growth, lowered the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%, and revised the median federal funds rate forecast for this year upward from 3.8% to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long. The dot plot indicated that 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases. This follows 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, six rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025, and five consecutive holds from January to July this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, raising the benchmark rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This marks the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a pause of more than three years. In its policy statement, the Fed noted that persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts have left current monetary policy insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed, with market expectations for further rate hikes continuing to rise. The Summary of Economic Projections showed that officials slightly raised their forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median projection for this year's unemployment rate from 4.3% in June to 4.1%. The median forecast for this year's federal funds rate was revised upward from 3.8% in June to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that U.S. inflation remains elevated and has persisted for too long. The Fed's dot plot indicated that 12 out of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year; four anticipate two hikes; and two expect no further increases.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, raising the benchmark rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This marks the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a hiatus of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy remains insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward from 3.8% to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that U.S. inflation remains elevated and has persisted for too long. The Fed's dot plot indicated that 12 out of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year; four anticipate two hikes; and two expect no further increases.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, raising the benchmark rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This marks the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a hiatus of more than three years. In its policy statement, the Fed noted that persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts have rendered current monetary policy insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent surges in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed, with market expectations for further rate hikes continuing to rise. According to the Summary of Economic Projections, officials slightly raised their forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median projection for this year's unemployment rate from 4.3% in June to 4.1%. The median forecast for the federal funds rate this year was revised upward from 3.8% in June to 4.1%, and the median projections for 2027 and 2028 were both increased by 50 basis points. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that U.S. inflation remains elevated and has persisted for too long. The Fed's dot plot indicates that 12 out of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year; four anticipate two hikes; and two expect no further increases.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023 and ending a pause of over three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed, with market expectations for further rate hikes rising. The Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward from 3.8% to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that U.S. inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long. The Fed's dot plot indicated that 12 out of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year; four anticipate two hikes; and two expect no further increases.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, First Hike Since July 2023
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023 and ending a pause of over three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have added pressure, with market expectations for further hikes rising. According to the Summary of Economic Projections, officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, lowered the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%, and revised the median federal funds rate forecast upward from 3.8% to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long, and that the Fed will ensure energy and food price increases do not pass through to broader inflation. The dot plot showed 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases. This decision follows 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, six rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025, and five consecutive holds from January to July this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After More Than Three Years
On September 16 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, raising the benchmark rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This marks the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a hiatus of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed, with market expectations for further rate hikes continuing to rise. According to the Summary of Economic Projections, officials slightly raised their forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median projection for this year's unemployment rate from 4.3% in June to 4.1%. The median forecast for the federal funds rate this year was revised upward from 3.8% in June to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that U.S. inflation remains elevated and has persisted for too long. The Fed's dot plot showed that 12 out of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year; four anticipate two hikes; and two expect no further increases.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, First Hike Since July 2023
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a pause of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have added pressure. The Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly raised forecasts for inflation and economic growth this year, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised up to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long. The dot plot indicated 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases. This follows 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, six rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025, and five consecutive holds from January to July this year.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, raising the benchmark rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This marks the first rate hike since July 2023, ending a pause of more than three years. The Fed stated that persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts mean current monetary policy remains insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed, with market expectations for further rate hikes continuing to rise. According to the Summary of Economic Projections, officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward from 3.8% to 4.1%. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting that U.S. inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long. The Fed's dot plot showed that 12 out of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year; four anticipate two hikes; and two expect no further increases.
Read sourceFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points After Three-Year Pause
On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target range, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023 after a hiatus of more than three years. The Fed cited persistent inflationary pressures and rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts as reasons that current monetary policy is insufficient to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Recent increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields have placed significant pressure on the Fed, with market expectations for further rate hikes rising. The Summary of Economic Projections showed officials slightly raised forecasts for this year's inflation and economic growth, while lowering the median unemployment rate projection from 4.3% in June to 4.1%. The median federal funds rate forecast for this year was revised upward from 3.8% to 4.1%, and median projections for 2027 and 2028 were each raised by 50 basis points. Fed Chair Warsh stated that the Fed's primary focus is price stability, noting inflation remains elevated and has persisted too long, and that the Fed will ensure energy and food price increases do not pass through to broader inflation. The dot plot indicated 12 of 18 officials expect another 25-basis-point hike this year, four anticipate two hikes, and two expect no further increases.
Read source