Tending the planetary: Toward an ecology of institutions for Earth system tipping points

This Brookings Institution analysis examines the governance challenges posed by Earth system tipping points, such as coral reef collapse, Amazon rainforest transformation, and AMOC slowdown. It argues that current financial, political, and multilateral institutions are calibrated for incremental, stable, and nationally demarcated issues, making them ill-equipped to address nonlinear, irreversible climate risks. The article highlights governance innovations under Brazil's COP30 presidency, including the Belém Declaration's first political recognition of tipping elements, enhanced regional cooperation through the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization, and proposals for a new U.N. Climate Change Council. It also introduces the concept of Tipping Element Monitoring and Response Facilities (TEMRFs) as a globally networked architecture grounded in regional leadership. The piece emphasizes the need for institutions that can sense nonlinear change, route signals to appropriate actors, and coordinate diverse experimentation to prevent and prepare for dramatic Earth system changes.