Tending the planetary: Toward an ecology of institutions for Earth system tipping points

This Brookings Institution analysis examines the challenge of governing Earth system tipping points—irreversible, self-reinforcing changes in systems like coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It argues that current financial, political, and multilateral institutions are calibrated for incremental, stable, nationally demarcated issues and struggle to digest the risks of nonlinear change. The article highlights that communities in the Arctic, Finland, and Brazil already face growing unpredictability. It discusses governance innovations under Brazil's COP30 Presidency, including the Belém Declaration's recognition of tipping elements, regional cooperation against environmental crimes, and proposals for a U.N. Climate Change Council. The piece also outlines the concept of Tipping Element Monitoring and Response Facilities (TEMRFs) as a globally networked architecture grounded in regional leadership to sense, route signals, and coordinate responses to Earth system tipping points.