Study: Abrupt USAID Shutdown Increased Violence in Africa
A new peer-reviewed study reveals that the abrupt termination of USAID operations in early 2025 led to a roughly 10-percent increase in conflict events and combat deaths across Africa. Researchers from Europe and the United States analyzed security data from 870 subnational African regions between March 2024 and November 2025. The findings indicate that the sudden collapse of aid, orchestrated by the Trump administration, triggered violent upheavals including riots, battles, and attacks on civilians. Unlike well-planned aid reductions, this unexpected economic shock devastated local economies and wages, effectively destroying the 'outside option' for individuals and lowering the opportunity cost of joining armed groups. Austin Wright, a co-author from the University of Chicago, emphasized that the scale of the disruption cannot be easily replaced by uncoordinated non-governmental organizations. The study joins other analyses suggesting that the human and security costs of shutting down USAID far exceed any financial savings. Additionally, separate research published in The Lancet estimates that millions could die due to these cuts by 2030, highlighting the severe humanitarian consequences of the policy decision.
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Study: Abrupt USAID Shutdown Increased Violence in Africa
A new peer-reviewed study reveals that the abrupt termination of USAID operations in early 2025 led to a roughly 10-percent increase in conflict events and combat deaths across Africa. Researchers from Europe and the United States analyzed security data from 870 subnational African regions between March 2024 and November 2025. The findings indicate that the sudden collapse of aid, orchestrated by the Trump administration, triggered violent upheavals including riots, battles, and attacks on civilians. Unlike well-planned aid reductions, this unexpected economic shock devastated local economies and wages, effectively destroying the 'outside option' for individuals and lowering the opportunity cost of joining armed groups. Austin Wright, a co-author from the University of Chicago, emphasized that the scale of the disruption cannot be easily replaced by uncoordinated non-governmental organizations. The study joins other analyses suggesting that the human and security costs of shutting down USAID far exceed any financial savings. Additionally, separate research published in The Lancet estimates that millions could die due to these cuts by 2030, highlighting the severe humanitarian consequences of the policy decision.