Prediction Market Gives SpaceX 62% Chance of $2 Trillion IPO Valuation

SpaceX is poised to launch what could be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, with reports indicating a roadshow starting in June 2026. Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns a 62% probability that SpaceX will close above a $2 trillion valuation on its first trading day, a figure that has risen steadily from 45% in early April. The company benefits from converging trends in the space economy and artificial intelligence, with significant assets including Falcon rockets, Starlink, xAI, and platform X. However, financial analysts warn retail investors against chasing this historic debut. Historical data suggests that mega-IPOs often underperform shortly after listing; for example, Meta Platforms lost 38% of its value in the six months following its debut, and Saudi Aramco dropped 15% in the same period. Despite the hype surrounding Elon Musk’s conglomerate and the potential for superior sales growth, experts argue that investor enthusiasm may be overzealous. The article highlights the risks associated with buying into high-profile listings at peak valuations, suggesting that while the immediate market reaction might be positive, long-term regret is a likely outcome for those entering at the top.