Israel's Changing Strategic Calculus

This analysis, published on Reason.com, examines a fundamental shift in Israeli strategic thinking following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The author reflects on the collapse of the post-Oslo Accords security paradigm, which assumed that Palestinian institutions could become responsible partners, economic prosperity would reduce violence, and that threats could be managed through technology, limited military operations, and diplomacy. The article argues that Hamas's breach of the border also breached this conceptual architecture, shattering faith in managing a genocidal movement through surveillance and economic concessions. It criticizes Western governments for interpreting ideological conviction as theatrical language and assuming all actors seek stability and prosperity, warning that this vulnerability stems from an inability to comprehend adversaries who seek victory and domination.