Israel's Changing Strategic Calculus

This analysis, published on Reason.com, examines a shift in Israeli strategic thinking following the Hamas attacks that breached not only borders but also a long-held conceptual framework. The author, referencing Nahum Kaplan's work, argues that the post-Oslo Israeli security establishment believed Palestinian institutions could become responsible partners, economic prosperity would reduce violence, and threats could be managed through technology and limited operations. The Hamas massacres and hostage-taking shattered this paradigm, revealing that a genocidal movement could not be indefinitely managed through surveillance and concessions. The piece critiques a Western strategic pathology of interpreting ideological conviction as theatrical language, warning that assuming adversaries share Western desires for stability and prosperity leads to vulnerability. It concludes that some enemies seek victory and domination, and failing to comprehend this is not humane but dangerous.