US jobs data and eurozone inflation set to guide Fed, ECB rate decisions next week
Global markets focus next week on the US September nonfarm payrolls report due October 2, which will help determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates for a second consecutive month. Money markets price a 64% probability of a hike on October 28. ING economist James Knightley says the jobs report and September CPI on October 14 will largely decide the Fed's move. In Europe, the eurozone September inflation flash estimate will be watched for energy price pass-through, as the ECB has already raised rates this month and markets price up to four more quarter-point hikes over the next year. Oil prices remain volatile amid Middle East tensions, with Brent crude near $104/barrel.
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US Jobs Data, Eurozone Inflation to Shape Fed, ECB Rate Paths Next Week
Next week's global market focus centers on key economic data that could determine central bank policy. The US September nonfarm payrolls report, due October 2, is the primary signal for whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October, following its September hike. Money markets price a 64% probability of a consecutive rate increase. ING economist James Knightley notes the jobs report and the September CPI data on October 14 will be critical for the Fed's decision. Other US data includes August PCE inflation, Q2 GDP final, and consumer confidence. In Europe, the eurozone September inflation print is the key focus, as high energy prices risk feeding into core inflation. The European Central Bank has already raised rates this month, with markets pricing up to four more quarter-point hikes over the next year. ECB President Lagarde will speak on Monday. The UK also faces potential rate hikes if energy prices stay high. Geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive oil price volatility and supply concerns, with Brent crude near $104/barrel. Gold prices fell on rate hike expectations, though Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish long-term outlook citing central bank buying.
Read sourceUS Jobs Data and Eurozone Inflation to Shape Fed and ECB Policy Next Week
This article previews key global economic events for the week ahead, focusing on the US September jobs report and its potential to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on a second consecutive rate hike in October. Market pricing suggests a 64% probability of a rate hike on October 28. The article cites ING economist James Knightley, who states that the jobs report and the September inflation data on October 14 will largely determine the Fed's decision. Other US data includes August PCE inflation, Q2 GDP final, and consumer confidence. In Europe, the eurozone September inflation print is the main focus, with markets pricing up to four more rate hikes from the ECB over the next year. The article also covers ongoing volatility in oil markets due to Middle East tensions and diplomatic efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, noting that Brent crude's near-term spread indicates supply tightness. Gold prices are under pressure from rising rate expectations and a stronger US dollar, though a bank forecast maintains a bullish long-term outlook for gold due to central bank buying.
Read sourceUS Jobs Data, Eurozone Inflation to Guide Fed, ECB Rate Paths Next Week
Next week's global market focus centers on key economic data that could determine central bank policy. The US September nonfarm payrolls report, due October 2, is the primary focus for investors assessing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Money markets currently price a 64% probability of a consecutive rate increase on October 28. ING economist James Knightley states the jobs report and the September CPI data on October 14 will largely decide the Fed's move, with the jobs data likely remaining resilient enough to keep a hike possible. Other US data includes August PCE inflation, Q2 GDP final, and September consumer confidence. In Europe, the eurozone September inflation flash estimate will be watched for signs of energy price pass-through, as the ECB has already raised rates this month. The Bank of England may also face pressure to hike in November if energy prices stay high. Geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive oil price volatility and global bond sell-offs, with WTI crude at $92.41 and Brent at $104.32 per barrel. Gold prices fell 2.27% to $4,286.20 as rate hike expectations strengthened the dollar and pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to its highest since 2007.
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US Jobs Data, Eurozone Inflation to Guide Fed, ECB Rate Paths Next Week
The article previews key global market events for the upcoming week, focusing on U.S. and European economic data. The central focus is the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, which will be critical in determining whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October, following a September hike. Money markets currently price a 64% probability of a consecutive rate increase. ING economist James Knightley notes that the jobs report and the September inflation data (due Oct 14) will largely decide the Fed's move. Other important U.S. data includes August PCE inflation, Q2 GDP final, and consumer confidence. In Europe, the eurozone September inflation flash estimate will be watched for signs of second-round effects from high energy prices, potentially influencing ECB policy. The article also covers volatile oil prices amid Middle East tensions, with Brent crude near $104/barrel, and a decline in gold prices due to a stronger dollar and rising rate expectations. Goldman Sachs lowered its gold price target but maintains a bullish long-term view. The UK's fiscal situation and Labour Party conference are also noted as potential market movers.
Read sourceUS Jobs Data, PCE Inflation to Guide Fed's October Rate Decision Next Week
This article previews key global economic events for the week ahead, with a central focus on the US September nonfarm payrolls report due Friday, October 2. The data will help investors assess whether the US economy can withstand a second consecutive rate hike, as money markets price a 64% probability of a Fed rate increase on October 28. Other important US releases include August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, August JOLTS job openings, September ADP private payrolls, and weekly jobless claims. In Europe, the eurozone September inflation flash estimate will be watched for signs of energy price pass-through to core inflation. The European Central Bank has already raised rates this month, and markets price up to four more 25-basis-point hikes over the next year. ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak on Monday. The article also covers volatile oil prices amid Middle East tensions, with WTI crude falling 3.82% and Brent rising 0.43% for the week. Gold and silver declined on rate hike expectations. The UK's fiscal situation and Labour Party conference are also noted as potential market movers.
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