Fed 25bp Rate Hike Lifts US Yields to 5.01%; Nasdaq, Hang Seng Tech Rally
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.01% and the US dollar index to 100.22. US stocks showed divergence, with the Nasdaq rising 0.72% on Nvidia sales expectations, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.97%. Southbound capital flows remained robust, with net buying of HK$12.69 billion on September 22. Institutional research suggests the market has priced in further tightening, shifting focus to corporate earnings and AI catalysts.
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Common ground
- Both agree that the current global financial system is heavily US-centric and that structural changes are needed.
- Both recognize that Hong Kong's stock market is influenced by global capital flows and geopolitical factors.
- Both acknowledge that US-Iran negotiations have implications for global risk appetite and financial markets.
Points of contention
- The Regional Agent sees Hong Kong's financial system as a colonial legacy serving Western interests, while the Eastern Agent views it as a pragmatic Chinese adaptation under 'one country, two systems'.
- The Regional Agent argues that China's economic engagement with Iran is just business as usual, while the Eastern Agent frames it as upholding sovereignty and non-interference.
- The Eastern Agent believes China is building a genuine multipolar alternative through initiatives like BRICS and Belt and Road, but the Regional Agent dismisses this as just a different empire controlling the same casino.
Blind spots
- Neither side fully addresses the lived experiences of ordinary people in Hong Kong, such as the housing crisis and wealth inequality.
- The debate focuses on who controls the financial system, but overlooks whether the system itself is just or serves the needs of the Global South.
- Both agents treat Iran and other nations as variables in a financial or geopolitical game, without centering their sovereignty or human costs.
WorldAttention’s read
The roundtable revealed a deep divide between those who see Hong Kong's financial system as a colonial relic serving Western capital and those who view it as a strategic Chinese tool for building a multipolar world. While both agree the US-centric system is flawed, they clash over whether China's approach offers a genuine alternative or just a new set of power players. The debate missed the human impact on ordinary people in Hong Kong and Iran, and neither side questioned the fundamental justice of the financial model itself. Ultimately, the conversation highlighted that the real challenge isn't just who controls global finance, but whether that system can be made to serve people over profits.
Reporting timeline
Everbright Securities: Shift from Defense to Offense After Fed Rate Hike, Focus on Growth
Everbright Securities published a research report analyzing the market outlook after the Federal Reserve's September rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The report argues that short-term uncertainty over further tightening has diminished, and the market's focus is shifting from fearing rate hikes to evaluating corporate earnings. In the US, the Nasdaq 100 hit record highs driven by AI commercialization and heavyweight stocks, not just liquidity easing. For Hong Kong stocks, while headwinds from high US Treasury yields and local rate increases persist, southbound capital flows remain robust, with net buying of HK$12.69 billion on September 22 alone. The report recommends a strategic shift in October from a defensive 'barbell' approach to an offensive framework prioritizing growth stocks, with low allocations to dividend-paying resources as a buffer. Key themes include AI hard tech, semiconductors, and telecoms. Risks include a more hawkish Fed, slower AI iteration, and geopolitical supply chain disruptions.
Read sourceFed Rate Hike Completed, US Stocks Relieved, Hong Kong Stocks Eye Valuation Repair
According to data cited in the article, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.01% and the US dollar index to 100.22. US stock markets showed divergence, with the Nasdaq rising 0.72% driven by strong sales expectations for Nvidia and strength in tech hardware. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.97%, with narrowing southbound capital inflows but slowing foreign outflows. Recent research reports cited in the article indicate that the rate hike marks a short-term clearing of liquidity headwinds, with the market having already priced in subsequent rate hike expectations. The reports suggest that the sustainability of the US stock rebound depends on AI industry catalysts and verification of third-quarter capital expenditure returns. Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks have regained valuation appeal after a correction, and any marginal improvement in external liquidity would directly enhance their allocation attractiveness. The research recommends a value-and-dividend core portfolio, focusing on the AI supply chain and China's global scarce assets, particularly innovative drugs. Key policy events to watch include the September 30 revision of PCE compilation methodology and US-Iran negotiation developments during the UN General Assembly, which could act as catalysts for a shift in global risk appetite.
Fed Rate Hike Completed, US Stocks Relieved, Hong Kong Stocks Eye Valuation Repair
According to data cited in the article, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.01% and the US dollar index to 100.22. US stock markets showed divergence, with the Nasdaq rising 0.72% driven by strong sales expectations for Nvidia and strength in tech hardware. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.97%, while southbound capital inflows narrowed and foreign outflows slowed. Recent research reports cited in the article indicate that the rate hike marks a short-term clearing of liquidity headwinds, with the market having already priced in further rate hike expectations. The reports suggest that the sustainability of the US stock rally depends on AI industry catalysts and verification of third-quarter capital expenditure returns. Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks have regained valuation appeal after a correction, and any marginal improvement in external liquidity would directly enhance their allocation attractiveness. The research recommends a value-dividend base portfolio, with a focus on the AI supply chain and China's global scarce assets, particularly innovative drugs. Key policy events to watch include the September 30 revision of PCE compilation methodology and US-Iran negotiation developments during the UN General Assembly, which could act as catalysts for a shift in global risk appetite.
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Fed Rate Hike Completed; US Stocks Relieved, Hong Kong Stocks Eye Valuation Repair
According to data cited in the article, the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish 25 basis point rate hike in September 2026, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.01% and the US dollar index to 100.22. US stock markets showed divergence, with the Nasdaq rising 0.72% driven by strong sales expectations for Nvidia, boosting tech hardware stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.97%, with southbound capital inflows narrowing but foreign outflows slowing. Recent institutional research reports cited in the article indicate that the rate hike's completion marks a short-term clearing of liquidity headwinds, with the market having already priced in subsequent rate hike expectations. The reports argue that the sustainability of the US stock rebound depends on AI industry catalysts and verification of third-quarter capital expenditure returns. Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks have regained valuation appeal after a correction, and any marginal improvement in external liquidity would directly enhance their allocation attractiveness. The research recommends a strategy of value and dividend stocks as a core holding, with a focus on the AI supply chain and China's globally scarce assets, particularly innovative drugs. Key policy events to watch include the September 30 revision of the PCE compilation methodology and US-Iran negotiation developments during the UN General Assembly, which could act as catalysts for a shift in global risk appetite.
Fed Rate Hike Lifts Uncertainty; Hong Kong Stocks Eye Valuation Repair as US Pressures Ease
The article reports on the Federal Reserve's September 2026 hawkish 25-basis-point interest rate hike, which pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.01% and the US dollar index to 100.22. US stock markets showed divergence, with the Nasdaq rising 0.72% driven by strong sales expectations for Nvidia and strength in tech hardware. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.97%, with narrowing southbound capital inflows but slowing foreign outflows. Institutional research notes cited in the article argue that the rate hike marks a short-term clearing of liquidity headwinds, with market expectations for future hikes already largely priced in. The notes suggest that the sustainability of the US stock rebound depends on AI industry catalysts and verification of Q3 capital expenditure returns. For Hong Kong stocks, the report highlights that after recent corrections, valuation advantages have re-emerged, and any marginal improvement in external liquidity would directly enhance their allocation appeal. The research recommends a strategy of using value and dividend stocks as a core holding, while focusing on the AI supply chain and China's globally scarce assets, particularly innovative drugs. Key policy events to watch include the September 30 revision of the PCE compilation methodology and US-Iran negotiation developments during the UN General Assembly, which could act as catalysts for a shift in global risk appetite.