Fed raises rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, Dow drops 631 points, Turkey market triggers circuit breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16-17, 2026, the first hike since July 2023 and under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The unanimous decision triggered a broad U.S. stock decline, with the Dow dropping 631 points. Turkey's BIST 100 index plunged over 7%, triggering a circuit breaker, amid a domestic fund redemption crisis and new regulatory caps. The dollar index rose above 100, pressuring emerging markets.
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Fed Hikes Rates 25 Basis Points; US Stocks Fall, Turkish Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023 and under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The FOMC voted unanimously 12-0. The dot plot revealed upward revisions to rate forecasts for 2026-2028, with core PCE inflation expected to return to 2% only by 2029, signaling a new tightening cycle. US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The energy sector led losses at -2.97%, followed by financials at -1.63%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.002%. In Turkey, the BIST 100 index fell 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, and later widened to over 7%. The crash was driven by a technical default at asset manager Pusula Portföy, new fund regulations forcing liquid asset sales, and the Fed's rate hike tightening external financing conditions. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28. The article notes that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25% on September 18, potentially reversing yen carry trades. For China, the PBOC conducted reverse repo operations to stabilize short-term rates, while the yuan remained relatively stable. The analysis concludes that 'higher for longer' is now an official projection path, and emerging markets with high external debt face the greatest pressure.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Basis Points; US Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, the first hike since July 2023 and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The updated dot plot shows median rate projections for 2026-2028 revised upward, with 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year. The Fed now expects core PCE inflation to return to 2% only by 2029. US stocks fell broadly: the Dow dropped 631 points (1.21%), the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, and the Nasdaq edged down 0.01%. The energy sector led losses (-2.97%), followed by financials (-1.63%). The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.002%. In Turkey, the BIST 100 index fell 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, then extended losses beyond 7%. The selloff was triggered by a technical default at asset manager Pusula Portföy and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, compounded by the Fed's rate hike. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28. The article notes that for China, the rate hike narrows room for rate cuts and increases capital-flow management pressures, though the yuan midpoint remained stable at 6.7628.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates, US Stocks Fall, Turkey's Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the first hike since July 2023 and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The Fed's updated dot plot showed a median rate forecast of 4.1% by end-2026, with 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year. Core PCE inflation is now not expected to return to the 2% target until 2029. US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The energy and financial sectors led declines. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.002%. In Turkey, the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 index fell 6%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker, amid a domestic fund liquidity crisis and new regulatory caps on fund holdings. The dollar index rose to 100.28. The article warns that higher-for-longer US rates will pressure emerging markets with high external debt and fragile financial systems, citing Turkey as a case study. It notes China's central bank is conducting reverse repo operations to stabilize short-term rates.
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Fed Raises Rates 25bps; U.S. Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, the first hike since July 2023 and under Chair Kevin Warsh. The dot plot showed median rate projections for 2026-2028 revised upward, with core PCE inflation expected to return to 2% only by 2029, signaling a new tightening cycle. U.S. stocks fell, with the Dow dropping 631 points and energy and financial sectors leading losses. The Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index fell over 7% after triggering a circuit breaker, driven by a Turkish asset manager default and new fund regulations, exacerbated by the Fed's rate hike. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28, pressuring emerging-market currencies and debt. The article notes that for China, the rate hike narrows room for rate cuts and increases pressure on capital flows, though the yuan remained relatively stable.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Bps, US Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
On September 17, the Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The FOMC voted unanimously. The dot plot revealed upward revisions to rate forecasts for 2026-2028, with core PCE inflation now expected to return to 2% only by 2029, signaling a new tightening cycle. US stocks fell broadly, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The energy sector led losses at -2.97%, followed by financials at -1.63%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.002%. Turkey's BIST 100 index fell 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, amid a fund redemption crisis at asset manager Pusula Portföy and new regulatory caps on fund holdings. The stronger dollar, rising to 100.28, tightened external financing for emerging markets. The article notes the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates to 1.25% on September 18, pressuring yen carry trades. For China, the PBOC conducted reverse repo operations to stabilize short-term rates, with the RMB midpoint at 6.7628.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates, US Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, marking the first rate hike since July 2023 and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The updated dot plot shows a median forecast for the federal funds rate at 4.1% by end-2026, with 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year. Core PCE inflation is now not expected to return to the 2% target until 2029. US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The energy and financial sectors led declines. Turkey's stock market triggered a circuit breaker after the BIST 100 index fell over 7%, driven by domestic fund redemption crises and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, compounded by Fed-induced dollar strength. The dollar index rose above 100. The analysis warns of capital outflows from emerging markets, pressure on yen carry trades, and rising debt costs for high-external-debt economies. The article notes China's central bank is conducting reverse repo operations to manage liquidity, but sees narrowing room for rate cuts.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Basis Points, US Stocks Fall, Turkey Stock Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, the first hike since July 2023 and under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The FOMC voted unanimously 12-0. Warsh stated inflation remains elevated and the move aims to bring it to the 2% target more quickly. The dot plot shows median rate projections for 2026 raised to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 members expecting at least one more hike this year. Core PCE inflation is now expected to return to 2% only by 2029. US stocks fell, with the Dow dropping 631 points (1.21%), led by energy (-2.97%) and financials (-1.63%). The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.002%. Turkey's BIST 100 index plunged 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, amid fund redemption failures and new regulatory caps on stock holdings. The dollar index rose to 100.28, pressuring emerging markets. The article notes the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates to 1.25% on September 18. For China, the PBOC conducted reverse-repo operations to smooth liquidity, with the yuan central parity at 6.7628.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates, US Stocks Fall, Turkish Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, the first hike since July 2023 and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The Fed's updated dot plot showed higher rate projections for 2027 and 2028, and core PCE inflation is now not expected to reach the 2% target until 2029, signaling a new tightening cycle. US stocks fell broadly, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The Turkish stock market triggered a circuit breaker after a 6% plunge, driven by domestic fund redemption issues and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, exacerbated by the Fed's rate hike and a stronger US dollar. The dollar index rose above 100, putting pressure on emerging market currencies and debt. The article notes that for China, the Fed's move narrows room for monetary easing and increases pressure on capital flow management.
Read sourceFed Rate Hike Triggers Broad US Stock Decline; Turkish Market Halts Trading
The US Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The decision was unanimous. The Fed's updated economic projections indicated a higher-for-longer rate path, with the median forecast for 2026 year-end rates raised to 4.1% and core PCE inflation not expected to return to the 2% target until 2029. US stocks fell broadly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 631 points, led by energy and financial sectors. The Turkish stock market triggered a circuit breaker after the BIST 100 index fell over 7%, driven by domestic fund liquidity issues and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, exacerbated by the Fed's hawkish stance. The US dollar index rose above 100, putting pressure on emerging market currencies and debt. The article notes that China's central bank is maintaining a stable yuan through open market operations but faces narrowing policy space.
Read sourceFed Hikes Rates 25 Bps, US Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, the first hike since July 2023 and under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The accompanying dot plot showed a hawkish outlook, with the median end-2026 rate forecast raised to 4.1% and core PCE inflation not expected to return to 2% until 2029. US stocks fell broadly, with the Dow dropping 631 points and the S&P 500 declining 0.45%, led by energy and financial sectors. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5%. The Turkish stock market (BIST 100) fell over 7%, triggering a circuit breaker, driven by a fund redemption crisis at asset manager Pusula Portföy and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, exacerbated by the Fed's tightening. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28, pressuring emerging market currencies and raising concerns about capital outflows and debt costs. The article notes the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, and China's policy room is narrowing.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Basis Points, US Stocks Fall, Turkish Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023 and under Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The dot plot revealed a hawkish outlook: end-2026 rate forecast raised to 4.1%, and median projections for 2027 and 2028 revised up by 50 basis points each. The Fed now expects core PCE inflation to return to 2% only by 2029. US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The energy sector led losses, falling 2.97%, followed by financials at -1.63%. The Turkish stock market (BIST 100) fell 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, after a two-day plunge linked to domestic fund redemption failures and new regulatory caps. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28. The article notes that the Fed's move tightens external financing conditions for emerging markets, with Turkey, Argentina, and South Africa most strained. For China, the article states the rate hike narrows room for rate cuts and increases pressure on capital-flow management.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Basis Points; US Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
On September 16-17, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023 and under Chair Kevin Warsh. The FOMC voted unanimously 12-0. The dot plot showed median rate projections for 2026 raised to 4.1%, and for 2027 and 2028 each revised up by 50 basis points to 4.1% and 3.9% respectively. Core PCE inflation is now expected to return to 2% only by 2029. US stocks fell: Dow dropped 631 points (1.21%), S&P 500 fell 0.45%, Nasdaq edged down 0.01%. The energy sector led losses at -2.97%, financials fell 1.63%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.002%. The Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index plunged 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, then fell beyond 7%. The crash was linked to a technical default by Turkish asset manager Pusula Portföy and new fund regulations. The Dollar Index rose from 99.83 to 100.28. The article notes increased pressure on emerging markets, yen carry trades, and China's narrowing policy room.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates, US Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, the first hike since July 2023 and under Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed's dot plot projections indicated a higher-for-longer rate path, with 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year and inflation not seen returning to 2% until 2029. US stocks fell broadly, with the Dow dropping 631 points. Turkey's stock market triggered a circuit breaker after a 6% plunge, driven by domestic fund redemption crises and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, exacerbated by the Fed's tightening. The US dollar index rose above 100, pressuring emerging market currencies and assets. The analysis attributes the Turkish market turmoil to a combination of external liquidity tightening and internal financial vulnerabilities, warning of broader risks for high-debt emerging economies.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25bps, US Stocks Fall, Turkish Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed's dot plot indicated a longer tightening path, with end-2026 rate forecasts raised to 4.1% and inflation not expected to return to 2% until 2029. US stocks fell broadly, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The Turkish stock market plunged over 7%, triggering a circuit breaker, amid internal fund redemption failures and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, exacerbated by the Fed's move. The Dollar Index rose above 100, pressuring emerging market currencies and debt. The article attributes the market reactions to the Fed's signal of 'higher for longer' rates and Turkey's internal financial fragility.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Basis Points; US Stocks Fall, Turkey Stock Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, the first hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The dot plot revealed a more hawkish outlook, with median rate projections for 2026-2028 revised upward and core PCE inflation now expected to return to 2% only by 2029. US stocks fell, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The energy and financial sectors led declines. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5%. In Turkey, the BIST 100 index triggered a circuit breaker after a 6% drop, following a default by funds under Pusula Portföy and new regulatory caps. The Fed's rate hike added pressure on the lira and emerging markets. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28. The article notes that for China, the rate cut room narrows, but the PBOC has conducted reverse repo operations to stabilize liquidity. The analysis concludes that 'higher for longer' is now an official forecast path.
Read sourceFed Hikes Rates 25bps, U.S. Stocks Fall, Turkish Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, the first hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The FOMC voted unanimously. The dot plot revealed median rate projections for 2026 raised to 4.1%, and for 2027 and 2028 each revised up by 50 basis points, with core PCE inflation expected to return to 2% only by 2029. U.S. stocks fell broadly, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The Turkish BIST 100 index fell 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, amid internal fund redemption failures and new regulatory caps. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28. The article attributes the market moves to the Fed's signal of a new tightening cycle and warns of pressure on emerging markets with high external debt.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25bps; US Stocks Fall, Turkish Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, the first hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The dot plot revealed upward revisions to rate forecasts for 2027 and 2028, and the Fed now expects core PCE inflation to return to 2% only by 2029, signaling a new tightening cycle. US stocks fell, with the Dow dropping 631 points and the energy sector leading losses. The Turkish stock market plunged over 7%, triggering a circuit breaker, driven by a combination of domestic fund redemption failures and new regulatory caps on fund holdings, exacerbated by the Fed's hawkish move. The Dollar Index rose above 100, putting pressure on emerging market currencies and debt. The article notes that for China, the Fed's action narrows room for domestic rate cuts and increases pressure on capital flow management, though the yuan remained relatively stable.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Bps, U.S. Stocks Fall, Turkish Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, the first hike since July 2023 and under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The FOMC voted unanimously. The median rate projection for end-2026 was raised to 4.1%, and core PCE inflation is now expected to return to 2% only by 2029. U.S. stocks fell broadly, with the Dow dropping 631 points (1.21%) and the energy sector leading losses at -2.97%. The Turkish BIST 100 index fell 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, amid a technical default by asset manager Pusula Portföy and new regulatory caps on fund holdings. The Dollar Index surged to 100.28, pressuring emerging-market currencies and debt. The article attributes the Fed's move as the start of a new tightening cycle, with markets pricing in a ~50% probability of an October rate hike. The analysis warns that high-debt economies like Turkey, Argentina, and South Africa face the greatest pressure from rising global funding costs.
Read sourceFed Hikes Rates 25 Bps, US Stocks Fall, Turkey Market Circuit Breaker Triggered
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, the first hike since July 2023 and under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The FOMC voted unanimously 12-0. The dot plot revealed a hawkish outlook, with end-2026 rate forecast raised to 4.1% and projections for 2027 and 2028 each revised up by 50 bps. Core PCE inflation is now expected to return to 2% only by 2029. US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping 631 points (1.21%), led by energy (-2.97%) and financials (-1.63%). The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.002%. In Turkey, the BIST 100 index plunged 6%, triggering a circuit breaker, amid a fund redemption crisis at asset manager Pusula Portföy and new regulatory caps. The dollar index surged to 100.28, pressuring emerging markets. The article notes the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25% on September 18, potentially unwinding yen carry trades. For China, the PBOC conducted reverse repo operations to maintain yuan stability at 6.7628.
Read sourceFed Raises Rates 25 Basis Points, US Stocks Fall, Turkey Stock Market Triggers Circuit Breaker
The Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, the first hike since July 2023 and under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision was unanimous. The dot plot revealed a hawkish outlook, with end-2026 rate forecasts raised to 4.1% and projections for 2027 and 2028 each revised up by 50 basis points. Core PCE inflation is now expected to return to 2% only by 2029. US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping 631 points. The energy and financial sectors led declines. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5%. In Turkey, the BIST 100 index fell over 7%, triggering a circuit breaker, exacerbated by a fund redemption crisis at Pusula Portföy and new regulatory caps. The Dollar Index rose to 100.28. The article notes that the Fed's move signals a new tightening cycle, putting pressure on emerging markets with high external debt and fragile financial systems.
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