Waller Leans Toward 25bp December Fed Hike, Open to 50bp If Inflation Runs Hot
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a London speech on November 10, 2026, that he leans toward a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, citing inflation that remains too high and calling September's inflation data "bad" with "no silver lining." He said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered if October inflation comes in hotter than expected, warning that a smaller move would risk the Fed's credibility. Markets priced in a better than 80% chance of a quarter-point hike, with CME FedWatch showing a 95.6% probability for the December 9 meeting.
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Cross-source coverage
Common ground
- Waller's trigger is a hedge with no downside, since it lets him sound hawkish if inflation is hot and data-dependent if it is not.
- The coverage wrongly turns one governor's conditional statement into 'the Fed signals,' when it is only one vote out of twelve.
- The gap between Waller's trigger and the committee's own dot plot is the key number nobody reported.
- The Fed's two years of calling inflation 'transitory' created a real overcorrection problem that cannot be ignored.
- The bond market's reaction is a fact worth reporting, but it is a thermometer, not a referee that can name the error.
Points of contention
- Western Agent argues the credibility problem and the policy error are one disease, while Neutral Agent says that framing is a tautology that explains everything and therefore nothing.
- Western Agent says the press should press governors with hard questions, while Neutral Agent says reporters should print falsifiable numbers and let readers judge.
- They disagree on whether the bond market can serve as the real mechanism of accountability, with Western Agent calling it 'stenography with extra steps' and Neutral Agent insisting it belongs in the story.
- Western Agent treats Waller's statement as a signal aimed at the tape, while Neutral Agent says that makes it guidance that deserves scrutiny, not laundering.
Blind spots
- Nobody asked whether 3.1% core inflation is even the right target when the price pressure comes from Strait of Hormuz insurance and AI capex.
- Nobody compared Waller's trigger to the committee's own dot plot, which is the number that should lead the story.
- Nobody asked what happens if core CPI prints 0.2% and Waller's trigger does not fire, which would expose the trigger as unfalsifiable.
- Nobody addressed the sourcing error about Warsh not being on the Fed Board as a sign of broader reporting problems.
WorldAttention’s read
This roundtable agrees that the coverage is overstating one governor's conditional statement as 'the Fed signals,' and that Waller's trigger is a hedge with no downside. The sharpest disagreement is whether the credibility problem and the policy error are one disease or two separate failures, with Western Agent arguing they are entangled and Neutral Agent warning that framing is a tautology. The biggest blind spot is that nobody compared Waller's mouth to the committee's own dot plot, and nobody asked whether the Fed is even fighting the right kind of inflation. The final judgment is that the story should lead with the unfalsifiable nature of Waller's trigger and the gap between his statement and the committee's projection, not with market odds or vague credibility talk.
Reporting timeline
Analyst Says Sticky Inflation Makes 50 Basis Point December Fed Hike Possible
Natixis analyst Christopher Hodge said on November 10 that although U.S. inflation has not reaccelerated, its persistence, combined with recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller, has clearly put a 50 basis point rate hike at the December meeting on the table. Hodge noted that Waller's remarks represent his personal view and do not necessarily reflect the positions of other Fed Board members or Warsh. Still, given the newly released data, Hodge said both inside and outside the FOMC there will be greater pressure on the Fed to take more aggressive action.
Read sourceFed's Waller Signals December Rate Hike, Market Prices In 25 Basis Points
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for a December rate hike and warned that he would back a 50-basis-point increase if inflation continues to accelerate, in order to maintain credibility. Waller stated that the Fed is not overly hawkish and does not want to severely damage the economy or cause a sharp downturn, ruling out hikes of 150 or 200 basis points. His remarks were described as the clearest rate-hike signal from a Fed official to date. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike in December, with CME FedWatch data showing a 95.6% probability for the December 9 meeting, up 18.2 percentage points from a week ago and 25.8 points from a month ago. If realized, the federal funds rate target range would rise to 4.00%-4.25%. Multiple Fed policymakers have publicly emphasized the need for further rate increases since the last meeting.
Read sourceFed's Waller Leans Toward Quarter-Point December Rate Hike, Open to 50 Basis Points
Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller said Tuesday he is leaning toward supporting a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, citing inflation that remains too high. Speaking in London, Waller said that even if the monthly rate of inflation improves in October as he expects, he would favor a quarter-point hike. However, he added that if the October inflation data released Tuesday morning comes in higher than expected, a 50 basis point increase should be considered at the December meeting. Waller warned that hiking only 25 basis points in that scenario would put the Fed's credibility at risk, a risk he said he is not eager to take. The remarks came as US stock indices traded mixed ahead of the key consumer inflation report.
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Fed's Waller Backs 25 Basis Point December Hike, Open to 50 if Core CPI Runs Hot
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on November 10 that the Fed will need to tighten policy further, citing excessively high U.S. inflation and a poor September inflation reading. He expressed particular concern that price increases are broadening. Waller said he would support a 25 basis point rate hike in December even if October CPI improves from September. However, he added that if October core CPI rises by about 0.3% or more, the Fed may need to raise rates by 50 basis points in December. The remarks set a data-dependent condition for the size of the next rate move.
Fed's Waller Leans Toward 25bp December Hike, Open to 50bp If Inflation Runs Hot
Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller said Tuesday he is leaning toward supporting a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, citing persistently high inflation. Speaking in London, Waller said that even if October inflation improves as he expects, he favors a quarter-point increase. However, he warned that if October CPI data comes in hotter than expected, a 50-basis-point hike should be considered, arguing that hiking only 25 basis points would put the Fed's credibility at risk. Waller called September's inflation data 'bad' with 'no silver lining,' noting core PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. He flagged concerns about the breadth of price increases, elevated high-tech goods prices tied to the AI build-out, and energy costs including higher insurance rates for ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are pricing in over an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike.
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