Does Myanmar Still Have One Government to Recognize?

The article examines the diplomatic and practical challenges of recognizing a single government in Myanmar, where the military junta, the National Unity Government (NUG), and ethnic armed organizations compete for control. Despite ASEAN's de facto engagement with the junta as the sole government, the reality on the ground is fragmented: the junta administers only a fifth to a third of the country, while warlordism spreads across nearly half. The NUG and ethnic groups run parallel administrations. International mechanisms like the UN Credentials Committee are deadlocked, defaulting to the current occupant. China bypasses the one-government model by making local deals with armed groups. The article argues that the diplomatic framework of recognizing one government per territory is outdated for Myanmar's complex conflict, and that refusing to deal with armed groups does not change the ground reality.