Chinese brokerages advise holding stocks through National Day holiday citing historical gains
Multiple Chinese securities firms, including CITIC Securities, Huajin Securities, and Zhongtai Securities, are advising investors to hold stocks through China's National Day holiday, citing historical "calendar effects" where A-shares have risen in 11 of the last 16 years after the break, with an average gain of 1.53%. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.60% and the Shenzhen Component dropped 2.37% in the week before the holiday. Institutions recommend focusing on technology, semiconductors, and AI sectors while hedging with energy stocks. Risks include high US Treasury yields and Middle East tensions.
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Chinese Brokerages Advise Holding Stocks Over National Day Holiday
As China's National Day holiday approaches, investors are debating whether to hold stocks or cash. On September 28, A-share markets continued their recent consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite falling 1.74% and the Shenzhen Component dropping over 3% by midday. Despite the downturn, multiple brokerages recommend 'holding stocks through the holiday,' citing historical calendar effects. CITIC Securities notes that the current adjustment is driven by seasonal and trading factors, predicting a post-holiday rebound. East Money Securities, after reviewing 20 years of data, finds that the two days before the holiday are often the best buying window, with small-cap stocks showing strong post-holiday performance. Zhongtai Securities advises maintaining a 'tech offense, energy security hedge' portfolio, arguing that the cost of selling tech stocks has diminished and that long-term funds are still accumulating. CITIC Securities sees the third-quarter earnings season as the last offensive window of the year, recommending a focus on tech leaders, resources, and financials. The article attributes all forecasts and conditions to the respective institutions.
Most Institutions Advise Holding Stocks Over Holiday, Tech Remains Medium-Term Main Line
According to a report from Cailianshe published on September 28, as China's National Day holiday approaches, investors are debating whether to hold stocks or cash over the break. The article cites securities strategy reports indicating that markets typically experience shrinking volume and consolidation before long holidays, with capital returning afterward to lift trading activity. Historical data shows a 'National Day holiday effect' in A-shares, where buying before the holiday and selling after often yields gains. Consequently, most institutions recommend 'holding stocks over the holiday' (持股过节). The report also states that technology remains the medium-term main investment theme. The source is Shanghai Securities News, republished on Tencent Stock.
Read sourceHuajin Securities: Short-term Bullish Window Opens, Investors Can Hold Stocks Through Holiday
According to an analysis by Huajin Securities published on East Money, historical data shows that the A-share market has risen in 11 out of the last 16 years during the five trading days after the National Day holiday, with an average gain of 1.53%. The report argues that a short-term bullish window has likely opened, advising investors to hold stocks through the holiday. Key supporting factors include expectations of continued positive policy, manageable external risks (such as limited escalation of US-Iran conflict and smooth US-China summit), sustained loose liquidity, and improving economic and earnings fundamentals. The analysis suggests that tech/growth sectors and some cyclical and consumer sectors are likely to outperform after the holiday, recommending investors to increase positions in sectors like semiconductors, AI hardware, communications, pharmaceuticals (AI and innovative drugs), and new energy. The report cautions that historical experience may not apply in the future and that policies or economic recovery could deviate from expectations.
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Chinese Investors Debate Holding Stocks or Cash Ahead of National Day Holiday
With three trading days left before China's National Day holiday, investors are debating whether to hold stocks or cash. Multiple Chinese securities firms have issued forecasts. Shanghai Securities News reports that historical data from 2006-2025 shows a 'National Day holiday effect' where markets often rise after the break. Analysts advise against further reducing positions, citing potential post-holiday rebounds. Key themes include AI technology stocks continuing to strengthen globally, with A-share tech expected to catch up. Institutions recommend a 'tech offense, energy hedge' portfolio structure, focusing on sectors like semiconductors and AI. However, risks remain from Middle East geopolitical tensions, high US bond yields, and potential Fed rate hikes. The market is described as being in a sentiment repair phase with expectations of a structural, rotational recovery. Specific recommendations include holding positions through the holiday, with attention to three allocation opportunities: AI tech, HALO assets, and non-bank financials with good earnings-valuation matches. The analysis notes current low trading volumes and long-term capital accumulation at market bottoms.
Read sourceChinese Institutions Advise Holding Stocks Through Holiday as Pre-Holiday Selling Pressure Eases
This article from East Money aggregates investment strategies from ten major Chinese financial institutions ahead of the National Day holiday. It notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.60% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.37% and the ChiNext Index fell 2.48%. Most institutions recommend holding stocks through the holiday, arguing that pre-holiday selling pressure has been released and that further position reduction is unnecessary. They cite historical patterns showing the market often rises in the five trading days after the National Day holiday, with an average gain of 1.53% since 2010. Key factors supporting a potential post-holiday rebound include: expectations of stable policy and external events during the holiday, anticipated recovery in trading volume, and the upcoming Q3 earnings season which may favor growth stocks, particularly in the TMT sector. However, risks remain including high US Treasury yields, volatile oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections. The institutions view the current market as undergoing a structural and rotational recovery rather than a new bull trend, with technology stocks seen as a potential leader in Q4.
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