China thermal coal surges 47% in 2024, nears 1,000 yuan threshold
China's domestic thermal coal price has surged nearly 47% since January 2024, reaching 987 yuan per ton by September 23, after briefly touching 1,002 yuan on September 9-10. The rally is driven by persistently low domestic production—January-August output fell 100 million tons year-on-year due to mine accidents and strict safety inspections in Shanxi—and declining port inventories, which dropped from 28 million tons in July to around 24 million tons. Import growth slowed sharply, with August imports down 1.5% year-on-year due to Indonesian drought and quota delays. Analysts expect prices could reclaim 1,000 yuan if restocking demand emerges, but October outlooks diverge on whether policy measures to boost supply will cap gains.
IllustrationEditorial responsibility
- No named human review is recorded for this page.
- Reports are grouped by semantic similarity and deterministic rules. Language models may assist titles, summaries, translation and cross-source analysis; the page reads the event directly, while its address stays stable when the title changes.
- Summary covers the current reports
Cross-source coverage
Reporting timeline
China thermal coal surges 47% in 2024, nears 1,000 yuan; analysts say breaching threshold not difficult
China's domestic thermal coal market has seen a significant price surge in September 2024, with the benchmark 5,500 kcal grade at Qinhuangdao port reaching 987 yuan per ton as of September 23, up 85 yuan from the start of the month and nearly 47% from the beginning of the year. Analysts attribute the rally primarily to persistently low production levels, with January-August output down by 100 million tons year-on-year due to mine accidents and strict safety inspections in Shanxi. Port inventories have fallen from 28 million tons in late July to around 24 million tons, tightening supply. Import growth has also slowed, with August imports down 1.5% year-on-year due to Indonesian quota delays and drought. While downstream power plants are resistant to high prices and rely on long-term contracts, analysts expect prices could stabilize above 1,000 yuan if restocking demand materializes. However, October outlooks diverge: some forecast high volatility with a possible early strength followed by a decline as winter stockpiling ends and policy measures boost supply, while others see continued upward pressure from incomplete production recovery and increased pre-winter buying.
Read sourceChina thermal coal surges 47% in 2024, nears 1,000 yuan; analysts say breaching threshold not difficult
Chinese thermal coal prices have surged nearly 47% since the start of 2024, reaching 987 yuan per ton in early September and briefly touching 1,002 yuan on September 9-10. Analysts cited in the article, published by East Money via Huaxia Times, attribute the rally to tight supply conditions, including strict safety inspections in Shanxi, slow mine restarts, low port inventories, and reduced imports from Indonesia due to drought and quota delays. Demand remains weak during the off-season, but analysts expect prices to reclaim the 1,000-yuan level once restocking demand emerges. First Futures analyst Zeng Xiang said breaching 1,000 yuan is not difficult if restocking demand is released. Zhuochuang analyst Ren Huiyun forecast high volatility with a possible initial rise followed by a fall in October, as winter stockpiling supports prices but policy measures to boost supply may cap gains. Downstream power plants are resisting high prices, relying on long-term contracts. The article notes that the National Development and Reform Commission and other agencies have issued policies to stabilize coal output and transport, which could improve supply. The outlook for October is divided, with some analysts expecting stronger prices due to restocking and others warning of a potential pullback as supply improves.
China thermal coal surges 47% in 2024, nears 1,000 yuan; analysts see easy breach
China's domestic thermal coal market has seen a sharp price rally in September 2024, with the benchmark 5,500 kcal grade at Qinhuangdao port reaching 987 yuan per ton on September 23, up 85 yuan from the start of the month and nearly 47% above the January level of 682 yuan. Analysts attribute the rise primarily to persistently low production, with January-August output down 100 million tons year-on-year due to mine accidents and strict safety inspections in Shanxi. Port inventories have fallen from 28 million tons in late July to around 24 million tons, tightening spot supply. Import growth has also slowed, with August imports down 1.5% year-on-year due to Indonesian quota delays and drought. While downstream power plants are resistant to high prices and rely on long-term contracts, traders are bullish ahead of pre-holiday restocking and the upcoming Daqin railway maintenance. Analysts from YiDe Futures and Zhuochuang Information forecast that prices could easily re-cross the 1,000 yuan threshold if restocking demand picks up, but caution that government measures to boost supply and weak seasonal demand may cap further gains, leading to high volatility in October.
Read sourceShow 2 older updatesHide older updates
China thermal coal nears 1,000 yuan per ton, analysts say breaching level not difficult
China's thermal coal prices have surged nearly 47% since the start of 2024, reaching 987 yuan per ton by September 23, after briefly touching 1,002 yuan earlier in the month. Analysts attribute the rally to persistently low domestic production, with output in July and August hitting five-year lows due to mine safety inspections and slow复产 in Shanxi. Social coal inventories have declined sharply, with major Bohai Rim port stocks falling from 28 million tons in July to around 24 million tons. Imported coal supply has also tightened, with August imports down 1.5% year-on-year due to Indonesian drought and permit delays. Analysts from the industry hold differing views on October: Ren Huiyun predicts high volatility with a possible early strength followed by a decline as winter restocking ends and policy measures boost supply; Zeng Xiang expects prices to remain firm as downstream restocking intensifies despite slow production recovery. Downstream power generators are under pressure from rising costs and falling electricity prices, with major firms like Huaneng International and Huadian International reporting significant profit declines in the first half of 2024.
Read sourceChina thermal coal surges 47% in 2024, nears 1,000 yuan; analysts say breaching threshold not difficult
As of September, domestic thermal coal in China is priced at 987 yuan per ton, up 85 yuan from the start of the month, highlighting a seasonal off-peak price surge. The commodity briefly touched 1,002 yuan on September 9-10, and has risen nearly 47% from 682 yuan at the beginning of the year. Analysts from First Futures and Zhuochuang Information attribute the strength to tight supply-demand dynamics: mine output remains low due to strict safety inspections and slow复产 progress in Shanxi, while port inventories are declining and import growth has slowed sharply—August imports fell 1.5% year-on-year versus July's 20.3% growth—due to Indonesia's drought and quota delays. Higher pithead prices and pre-holiday restocking expectations have strengthened trader holding sentiment. Downstream thermal power plants are under cost pressure, with cautious purchasing and resistance to high prices. Looking ahead to October, analysts diverge: Zhuochuang expects high-range volatility with a possible initial rise then fall, as winter stockpiling supports but policy-driven supply improvements may cap gains; First Futures sees a stronger probability of price increases as production recovery remains incomplete and downstream restocking intensifies. Policy measures include the National Development and Reform Commission's September directives on Xinjiang coal transport and a joint ministry notice on safe and stable coal production.