China’s live hog prices edge down 0.5% as holiday slaughtering boosts supply
In the third week of September 2026, China’s national live hog price averaged 11.48 yuan/kg, down 0.5% week-on-week, while pork market prices fell 0.2% to 21.18 yuan/kg. Wholesale pork prices rose 0.7% to 16.40 yuan/kg but remained 16.1% lower year-on-year. Analysts attributed the decline to active pre-holiday slaughtering by farms ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival, while weak consumer demand capped retail prices. The breeding sow herd fell to 37.8 million head by end of Q2, down 6.5% year-on-year.
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China hog prices diverge before holiday; sow herd cuts raise Q4 price outlook questions
According to monitoring by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the third week of September (September 14-20), the national live hog price was 11.48 yuan/kg, down 0.5% week-on-week, while pork wholesale prices edged up 0.7% to 16.40 yuan/kg. Analysts attribute the divergence to active pre-holiday slaughtering by farmers and increased stocking by processors and caterers, though terminal consumption remains weak. On the supply side, the sow herd has been reduced to a recent low of 37.8 million head as of Q2 2026, down 6.5% year-on-year, returning to the 'green reasonable range' per the Ministry. However, Hualian Futures notes that the production cycle means the impact of sow reductions from late 2025 to early 2026 will only affect pig supply from September 2026 onward, while current slaughter remains high. Rising PSY (over 24 heads for leading firms) offsets some capacity cuts. Researcher Zhu Zengyong from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences notes pork's share of meat consumption has fallen from 62% in 2018 to about 58% currently. Analyst Zou Yingji from Zhuochuang Information sees potential for Q4 price increases due to reduced theoretical supply and seasonal demand from curing activities, but cautions that gains may be limited by rising sow numbers from late 2025, PSY improvements, and weakening seasonal demand support.
Read sourceChina's Hog and Pork Prices Fluctuate Narrowly in Third Week of September
According to monitoring by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs across 500 county-level markets and collection points, during the third week of September (September 14-20), the national live hog price averaged 11.48 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% week-on-week. The pork market price at fairs averaged 21.18 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% week-on-week. However, monitoring of 200 wholesale markets showed the national average wholesale pork price was 16.40 yuan per kilogram, up 0.7% week-on-week but still 16.1% lower than the same period last year. Analysts attributed the slight decline in live hog prices to active slaughtering by farmers ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Meanwhile, increased stocking by wholesalers, food processors, and catering enterprises pushed wholesale pork prices up, though overall terminal consumer demand remained weak, leading to a slight drop in retail pork market prices. The report forecasts that hog and pork prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly in the coming week.
China's Hog and Pork Prices Fluctuate Narrowly in Third Week of September
According to monitoring by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs across 500 county markets and collection points, during the third week of September (September 14-20), the national live hog price was 11.48 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% week-on-week. The pork market price at fairs was 21.18 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% week-on-week. Monitoring of 200 wholesale markets showed the national average wholesale pork price was 16.40 yuan per kilogram, up 0.7% week-on-week but 16.1% lower year-on-year. Analysts attributed the slight decline in live hog prices to active slaughtering by farmers ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Increased stockpiling by wholesalers, food processors, and catering enterprises drove wholesale pork prices up, but overall terminal consumer demand provided limited support, leading to a slight decline in pork market prices at fairs. Looking ahead, prices for live hogs and pork are expected to continue fluctuating narrowly in the coming week.
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China Hog Prices Weak Before Holiday; Analysts See Limited Q4 Recovery
According to monitoring by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national live hog price was 11.48 yuan/kg in the third week of September, down 0.5% week-on-week, while pork market prices fell 0.2% to 21.18 yuan/kg. Wholesale pork prices averaged 16.40 yuan/kg, up 0.7% but still 16.1% lower year-on-year. Analysts attribute the pre-holiday weakness to active slaughtering by farms ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. On the supply side, the national breeding sow herd had fallen to 37.8 million head by end of Q2 2026, down 6.5% year-on-year, which could support prices. However, researcher Zhu Zengyong from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences notes that pork's share of total meat consumption has declined from 62% in 2018 to about 58%, reflecting structural demand weakness. Analysts from Zhuochuang Information and Huafu Futures forecast that Q4 demand may increase seasonally due to cooler weather and curing activities, but the effect may be limited by changing consumer habits and a smaller-than-expected reduction in hog supply due to rising PSY (pigs per sow per year). Overall, Q4 price gains are expected to be capped.
Read sourceChina's Hog and Pork Prices Fluctuate Narrowly in Third Week of September
According to monitoring by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs across 500 county-level markets and collection points, during the third week of September (September 14-20), the national live hog price averaged 11.48 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% week-on-week. The pork market price at fairs was 21.18 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% week-on-week. However, monitoring of 200 wholesale markets showed the national pork wholesale price averaged 16.40 yuan per kilogram, up 0.7% week-on-week but down 16.1% year-on-year. Analysts attributed the slight decline in live hog prices to active slaughtering by farmers ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Increased stocking by wholesalers, food processors, and catering enterprises pushed wholesale pork prices up, but overall terminal consumer demand remained weak, leading to a slight decline in retail pork market prices. The report forecasts that hog and pork prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly in the coming week.
Read sourceChina's Live Pig Prices Dip Slightly in Third Week of September as Holiday Supply Increases
According to monitoring by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs across 500 county markets and collection points, during the third week of September (September 14-20), the national live pig price averaged 11.48 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% week-on-week. The pork market price at collection points averaged 21.18 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% week-on-week. Separately, monitoring of 200 wholesale markets showed the national average wholesale pork price was 16.40 yuan per kilogram, up 0.7% week-on-week but 16.1% lower than the same period last year. Analysts attributed the slight decline in live pig prices to active slaughtering and marketing by breeding enterprises ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. The wholesale price increase was linked to demand from wholesalers and food processing and catering businesses preparing for the holiday.
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