China beef wholesale price hits two-year high at 71.59 yuan/kg on supply cuts and tariffs
China's wholesale beef price reached a two-year high of 71.59 yuan per kilogram on September 21, up nearly 6% since early August and 9% year-on-year, according to Ministry of Agriculture data. The rally is driven by a domestic supply contraction after three years of industry losses reduced breeding cow stocks by 15-20%, and by import safeguard measures effective January 2026 imposing a 55% tariff on out-of-quota beef imports. Seasonal demand from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays is adding upward pressure. Analysts expect prices to remain elevated in the short term, with some forecasting the bull cycle could extend into 2027.
IllustrationEditorial responsibility
- No named human review is recorded for this page.
- Reports are grouped by semantic similarity and deterministic rules. Language models may assist titles, summaries, translation and cross-source analysis; the page reads the event directly, while its address stays stable when the title changes.
- Summary covers the current reports
Cross-source coverage
Reporting timeline
China beef prices hit two-year high on supply cuts and import tariffs
China's beef prices have surged to a two-year high, with the national wholesale average reaching 71.59 yuan per kilogram on September 21, up nearly 6% since early August and 9% year-on-year, according to Ministry of Agriculture data. The price rally is driven primarily by supply contraction: China's cattle inventory fell to 95.57 million head by mid-2026, down 4.3% year-on-year, following three years of industry losses that reduced breeding cow stocks by 15-20%. Additionally, China imposed a 55% tariff on imported beef above quotas starting January 1, 2026, further tightening supply. Demand is entering its traditional peak season with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays boosting consumption. Analysts from CITIC Futures and Zhuochuang Information expect prices to remain high in the short term. International consultant Global AgriTrends forecasts a global beef supply downturn through 2028, supporting high prices. However, Nongxiaofeng warns that weak consumer demand may cap upside, while Zhiyan Consulting sees a 'structural adjustment window' rather than a full boom.
Read sourceBeef prices hit two-year high; analyst sees uptrend lasting into 2027
Chinese beef prices have surged to a two-year high, with wholesale prices rising about 6% since early August 2025, according to Ministry of Agriculture data. The price increase is driven by a sharp reduction in domestic cattle supply following three years of industry losses that led to widespread culling of breeding cows. National cattle inventory fell to 95.57 million head by mid-2026, down 4.3% year-on-year. Import restrictions under China's safeguard measures, including tariffs on Australian and Brazilian beef, have further tightened supply. Analysts at ZhuoZhuo Insights forecast the bull cycle will continue into 2027, with wholesale prices expected to remain between 70-80 yuan/kg in September 2025. The report notes that while upstream farmers benefit from improved margins, wholesale distributors face competitive pressure and are cautious about passing on price increases to customers. Seasonal demand from the fourth-quarter consumption peak, including hotpot and festive gatherings, is expected to provide additional support.
Read sourceChina's beef prices hit two-year high; analyst sees uptrend lasting into 2027
Chinese beef wholesale prices have reached a two-year high, rising about 6% since early August to 71.59 yuan per kilogram as of September 21, according to Ministry of Agriculture data. Retail prices have followed, increasing roughly 10 yuan per kilogram. Analysts attribute the surge primarily to a deep reduction in domestic beef cattle breeding capacity after three years of industry losses, which led to widespread culling of breeding cows. National cattle inventory fell to 95.57 million head by mid-2026, down 4.3% year-on-year. Additional factors include China's import safeguard measures implemented in January 2026, which imposed tariffs on beef imports, reducing supply from major sources like Australia and Brazil. Seasonal demand from the fourth-quarter consumption peak, including holiday gatherings and hotpot dining, is also boosting prices. Zhuoxiang Securities analyst Shao Qiaoqiao forecasts beef prices will remain elevated at 70-80 yuan per kilogram through September, with the upward cycle potentially lasting until 2027 as supply gaps persist for over two years due to the lag effect of capacity reduction.
Read sourceShow 3 older updatesHide older updates
China beef prices hit two-year high; analyst sees uptrend lasting into 2027
Chinese beef wholesale prices have risen about 6% since early August 2025, reaching a two-year high of 71.59 yuan per kilogram on September 21, according to Ministry of Agriculture data. Retail prices have followed, rising about 10 yuan per kilogram. Analysts and traders attribute the surge primarily to domestic supply contraction after three years of industry losses that led to heavy culling of breeding cows. National cattle inventory fell to 95.57 million head by mid-2026, down 4.3% year-on-year. Import restrictions under China's safeguard measures, including a 55% tariff on Australian beef after its quota was filled, have further tightened supply. Seasonal demand from autumn and winter consumption, including hotpot and festive gatherings, is adding upward pressure. Analyst Shao Qiaoqiao forecasts beef prices will remain elevated at 70-80 yuan per kg through September 2025, with the bull cycle expected to last until 2027 as supply gaps widen. Wholesalers report cautious pricing amid competitive retail demand.
Read sourceChina beef prices hit 2-year high; analyst sees uptrend lasting into 2027
Beef prices in China have surged to a two-year high, with wholesale prices rising about 6% since early August 2025, according to Ministry of Agriculture data. The national average wholesale price reached 71.59 yuan/kg on September 21, up nearly 9% year-on-year. Analysts attribute the rally primarily to a deep contraction in domestic cattle supply after three years of industry losses (2023-2025), which led to widespread culling of breeding cows. National cattle inventory fell to 95.57 million head by mid-2026, down 4.3% year-on-year. Additional support comes from China's import safeguard measures implemented in January 2026, which impose tariffs on beef imports, and the onset of the traditional consumption peak season in Q4. Analysts at Zhuochuang Information forecast the bull cycle could extend into 2027, with prices expected to remain elevated between 70-80 yuan/kg in September, and potentially rise further in late 2026 to early 2027 as both domestic and import supplies tighten. Wholesalers report cautious price pass-through due to competitive pressures.
China beef prices hit over two-year high at 71.59 yuan per kg, driven by supply cuts and import tariffs
According to a report by East Money citing First Financial and other sources, China's beef prices have surged to a two-year high. As of September 21, the average wholesale price reached 71.59 yuan per kilogram, up nearly 6% since early August and nearly 9% year-on-year. The price increase is primarily attributed to supply contraction: China's cattle inventory fell to 95.57 million head by mid-2026, down 4.3% year-on-year, while a government safeguard measure effective January 2026 imposes a 55% tariff on imported beef exceeding quotas, the largest trade remedy case in China's history. Demand is entering a traditional peak season with Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays boosting consumption. Industry analysts cited in the report expect prices to remain high in the short term due to holiday demand and slow herd recovery. International analyst Brett Stuart forecasts a global structural high-price cycle lasting until at least 2028. However, some domestic agencies like Nongxiaofeng caution that weak terminal consumption may limit upside, while Zhicheng Consulting views the situation as a 'structural adjustment window' rather than a full boom.
Read source