Bitcoin Defies Bearish Macro Signals as Analyst Cowen Reverses to Bullish Outlook
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen acknowledged on Thursday that his bearish macroeconomic outlook has been validated across traditional markets—with rising oil prices pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.1% and the S&P 500 stalling—yet Bitcoin has broken above its May high, reversing its technical structure. Cowen, who had assigned only a 35% probability to Bitcoin bottoming, now views the trend as clearly bullish, advising traders to prioritize price action over macroeconomic theory.
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Analyst Benjamin Cowen Admits Bitcoin Forecast Error as Macro Indicators Fail to Predict Rally
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen acknowledged on Thursday that his bearish macroeconomic outlook has been contradicted by Bitcoin's recent price strength. Cowen noted that traditional macro indicators are deteriorating: rising oil prices have pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.1%, the 2-year yield surged 20 basis points to 4.9% while the federal funds rate remains at 4%, and the S&P 500 stalled after an August peak. Gold and silver also weakened, falling into Cowen's predicted vulnerable period from mid-September to mid-October. Despite these risk-off signals, Bitcoin has broken above its May high, reversing its technical structure. Cowen had previously assigned only a 35% probability to Bitcoin bottoming, but now concedes the trend has turned bullish. He emphasized that weekly closes above the 50-week moving average are key confirmation signals, warning that a drop below $83,000 could trigger a Q4 pullback but not necessarily a new low. Citing the 2012 silver case, he cautioned that short-term volatility should not obscure long-term trends. Cowen concluded that while four macro indicators suggest caution, Bitcoin points in the opposite direction, advising traders to prioritize price action over macroeconomic theory.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen Admits Bitcoin Forecast Error as Macro Indicators All Point Bearish
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen acknowledged on Thursday that his bearish macroeconomic outlook has been validated across traditional markets, yet Bitcoin has defied expectations by breaking out to the upside. Cowen noted that rising oil prices have pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.1%, while the 2-year yield surged 20 basis points to 4.9%, far above the federal funds rate of 4%. This yield spike, combined with a strong dollar, has stalled the S&P 500 since mid-August and weakened gold and silver, falling within Cowen's predicted weak period from mid-September to mid-October. Despite these risk-off signals, Bitcoin's technical structure has reversed. Cowen compared the current situation to 2015, when a similar weekly close above the 50-week moving average initially appeared false but preceded a bull market. He had previously assigned only a 35% probability to Bitcoin bottoming, but now, with the price breaking above its May high, he has turned bullish. He emphasized that a weekly close is key to confirming a bottom, and a drop below $83,000 could trigger a Q4 pullback without necessarily making new lows. Cowen concluded that while four macro indicators suggest caution, Bitcoin points in the opposite direction, advising traders to prioritize price action over macroeconomic theory.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen Admits Bitcoin Defies His Bearish Macro Forecast, Turns Bullish
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, as reported by Woofun AI via Zhitong Finance, acknowledged on Thursday that while his bearish macroeconomic predictions have been validated across traditional markets, Bitcoin has unexpectedly broken out, defying conventional asset correlations. Cowen noted that rising oil prices have pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.1%, and the 2-year yield surged 20 basis points to 4.9%, while the federal funds rate remains at 4%, indicating policy is 100 basis points behind inflation control. This macro pressure has stalled the S&P 500 since mid-August and weakened gold and silver, falling into Cowen's predicted weak period from mid-September to mid-October. However, Bitcoin's technical structure has reversed. Cowen compared the current situation to historical cases where Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average only twice before, with 2015's breakout later proving false despite an eventual bull run. He admitted his earlier 35% probability for a Bitcoin bottom has hurt his short-term credibility. Now, with Bitcoin breaking above its May high, Cowen revised his view to clearly bullish, emphasizing that weekly closes are key for confirming a bottom. He warned that a drop below $83,000 could trigger his expected Q4 pullback but not necessarily a new low, citing 2012 silver as a cautionary example where a failed weekly close still led to an uptrend. Cowen concluded that while four macro indicators suggest caution, Bitcoin points in the opposite direction, stating 'markets don't have to be logical' and urging traders to prioritize price action over macro theory.
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Analyst Benjamin Cowen Admits Bearish Error as Bitcoin Breaks Out Despite Deteriorating Macro
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen acknowledged a forecasting error on Thursday, noting that while his bearish macroeconomic thesis has been validated across traditional markets, Bitcoin has unexpectedly broken out to the upside. Cowen pointed to rising oil prices pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.1%, a 20-basis-point spike in the 2-year yield to 4.9%, and a federal funds rate at 4%—which he argues is a full percentage point below the level needed to control inflation. These factors, combined with a strong dollar, have stalled the S&P 500 since mid-August and weakened gold and silver, falling within Cowen's predicted weak period from mid-September to mid-October. However, Bitcoin's technical structure has reversed. Cowen compared the current situation to historical instances where Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for only two weeks, noting that a 2015 instance proved to be a false breakout. He had previously assigned only a 35% probability to Bitcoin bottoming, but now, with the price exceeding its May high, he has turned bullish. Cowen emphasized that a weekly close is key to confirming a bottom, and a drop below $83,000 could trigger a Q4 pullback without necessarily making a new low. He cited the 2012 silver case as a warning that short-term volatility should not obscure long-term trends. Cowen concluded that while four macro indicators suggest caution, Bitcoin points in the opposite direction, advising traders to prioritize price action over macroeconomic theory.
Read sourceAnalyst Benjamin Cowen Admits Bearish Error as Bitcoin Breaks Out Despite Macro Headwinds
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen acknowledged on Thursday that his bearish macroeconomic outlook has been validated across traditional markets, yet Bitcoin has defied expectations by breaking out to the upside. Cowen noted that rising oil prices have pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.1%, while the 2-year yield surged 20 basis points to 4.9%, far above the federal funds rate of 4%. These conditions have stalled the S&P 500 since mid-August and weakened gold and silver, aligning with Cowen's forecast for a weak period from mid-September to mid-October. However, Bitcoin's technical structure has reversed, with the price breaking above its May high. Cowen had previously assigned only a 35% probability to a Bitcoin bottom, but now views the trend as clearly bullish. He emphasized that a weekly close above the 50-week moving average is key to confirming a bottom, and warned that a drop below $83,000 could trigger a Q4 pullback without necessarily making a new low. Citing the 2012 silver example, he cautioned that short-term volatility should not obscure the long-term trend. Cowen concluded that while four macro indicators suggest caution, Bitcoin points in the opposite direction, and traders should prioritize price action over macroeconomic theory.
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