Analyst Cowen Admits Bearish Mistake: Macro Logic All Wrong, Bitcoin Breaks Out

By Woofun AI

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen noted on Thursday that the current market presents a paradoxical scenario: all of his macro-driven bearish signals have been validated, yet Bitcoin continues to strengthen in the opposite direction, breaking the traditional correlation between asset classes.

Macro Deterioration Spreads Across Traditional Markets

Rising oil prices have pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.1%, while the Federal Reserve has been slow to respond with interest rate hikes to curb inflationary pressures. The 2-year Treasury yield, a key indicator of neutral interest rate expectations, surged 20 basis points in a single day to 4.9%. In contrast, the federal funds rate remains at 4%, which Cowen believes represents a full percentage point below the level needed to control inflation.

The combination of rising yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar has stalled the S&P 500 after it peaked in mid-August. Gold and silver have also shown weakness, falling precisely into the vulnerable window Cowen had predicted between mid-September and mid-October.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, both traditional safe-haven and risk assets have suffered under these macro conditions, which overwhelmingly point toward risk aversion.

Bitcoin's Technical Reversal

Despite the macro headwinds, Bitcoin's technical structure has undergone a fundamental shift. Cowen compared the current situation to historical precedents, noting that Bitcoin has only closed above its 50-week moving average on a weekly basis twice before. The 2015 instance was later confirmed as a false breakout—though it was followed by a bull market, Bitcoin initially set new lows before the rally began.

Cowen admitted that he had previously assigned only a 35% probability to Bitcoin having bottomed, a judgment that has temporarily damaged his short-term credibility. However, with Bitcoin now breaking above its May highs, he has revised his view, stating that the market trend has clearly turned bullish.

He emphasized that the weekly close is the key signal for confirming a bottom. If Bitcoin falls back below $83,000, it could trigger the Q4 pullback he originally anticipated—though not necessarily a new low. He cited the 2012 silver market as a cautionary example: even after a failed weekly close, silver ultimately rallied, suggesting that short-term volatility should not obscure the long-term trend.

Conclusion: Price Action Over Macro Theory

Faced with the divergence between macro data and Bitcoin's price action, Cowen concluded that while four of five key indicators suggest caution, Bitcoin points decisively in the opposite direction. "The market doesn't have to be logical," he said, urging traders to prioritize price action over macro theory until Bitcoin's structural trend shows signs of changing.