Bank of Canada warns US tariffs could halve Q4 growth below 1% as inflation stays high
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that new U.S. tariffs could cut Canada's fourth-quarter economic growth to below 1%, roughly half the previous pace, while annual inflation remains at 3%, above the 2% target. He stated that if oil prices stay near $100 per barrel, inflation could rise further, though there is no evidence yet of broader price spillovers. Macklem indicated the central bank faces a narrowing policy space, avoiding rate hikes if inflation remains controllable but ready to act if price pressures persist.
Reference imageEditorial responsibility
- No named human review is recorded for this page.
- Reports are grouped by semantic similarity and deterministic rules. Language models may assist titles, summaries, translation and cross-source analysis; the page reads the event directly, while its address stays stable when the title changes.
- Summary covers the current reports
Cross-source coverage
Reporting timeline
Bank of Canada Governor Warns Tariffs Could Halve Q4 Growth Below 1% as Inflation Stays High
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem issued his strongest stagflation warning yet on Monday, stating that new U.S. tariffs could cut Canada's fourth-quarter economic growth to below 1%, roughly half the previous pace, while annual inflation remains at 3%, above the 2% target. Macklem said the latest tariff escalation may again cause businesses to delay investment and hiring decisions, and that the temporary boost from trade-war adjustments is fading. He warned that if oil prices stay near $100 per barrel, inflation could rise further, though there is no evidence yet of broader price spillovers. The central bank faces a narrowing policy space: Macklem indicated it would avoid raising rates if inflation remains controllable but would not hesitate to act if price pressures persist. The warning marks a significant downgrade to the Bank of Canada's economic outlook, with growth momentum from the second quarter's 3.3% annualized rate already dissipating.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Warns Slow Rate Hikes Could Force Larger, Faster Increases
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that if the central bank moves too slowly in raising interest rates, it may be forced to implement larger and more rapid rate hikes later. The statement, reported by financial data provider Jin10, underscores the Bank of Canada's cautious approach to monetary policy tightening. Macklem's comment highlights the risk of delaying action, which could lead to a more aggressive and potentially disruptive tightening cycle. The remark is attributed directly to the governor and reflects a conditional forecast about the consequences of policy timing. No specific timeline or rate level was mentioned in the excerpt.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Bank Watches Market Views on Rate Outlook
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the central bank is monitoring how financial markets perceive the interest rate outlook. He noted that traders are forming their own judgments about the future path of interest rates. The comment, reported by financial news outlet Jin10, reflects the Bank of Canada's attention to market pricing and expectations as it considers its monetary policy stance. No specific policy direction or timing was indicated in the statement.
Read sourceShow 17 older updatesHide older updates
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Rate Hike Possible to Guide CPI Back to 2%
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the central bank needs to decide whether to raise interest rates in order to guide consumer price index (CPI) inflation back to the 2% target. The remark, reported by financial data provider Jin10, signals that the Bank of Canada is considering further monetary tightening if inflation remains above its target. Macklem's comment underscores the ongoing challenge of balancing inflation control with economic growth, as the central bank evaluates the effectiveness of its current policy stance. The statement does not specify a timeline or magnitude for a potential rate increase, leaving the decision conditional on incoming economic data and inflation trends.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Inflation Forecasts to Guide October Decision
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that inflation forecasts will influence the central bank's monetary policy decision in October. The remark, reported by financial news outlet Jin10, underscores the data-dependent approach of the Bank of Canada as it assesses the trajectory of price pressures. Macklem's comment links the upcoming rate decision directly to the outlook for inflation, suggesting that any changes in inflation projections could shift the policy stance. The statement provides a clear signal to markets that the Bank of Canada is closely monitoring economic indicators, particularly inflation, to determine its next move. No specific inflation figures or policy direction were provided in the brief statement.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Questions Whether Current Rate Is Appropriate or Needs Hike
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the central question for monetary policy is whether the current interest rate level is appropriate or if further rate increases are necessary. The remark, reported by financial news outlet Jin10, signals ongoing uncertainty about the inflation outlook and the path of policy tightening. Macklem did not provide a specific timeline or threshold for a potential hike, leaving the decision data-dependent. The statement comes amid mixed economic signals in Canada, where inflation has moderated but remains above the 2% target, and the labor market has shown signs of cooling. Markets will parse this comment for clues on the Bank of Canada's next move at upcoming meetings.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Focus Will Be on Inflation Forecasts
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the central bank will focus on inflation forecasts going forward. This brief but direct comment, reported by financial news source Jin10, signals the Bank of Canada's continued priority on monitoring and projecting inflation trends as a key guide for monetary policy. The statement does not specify a timeline or any particular inflation threshold, but it reaffirms the central bank's data-dependent approach amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Macklem's remark comes as central banks globally balance inflation control with economic growth concerns. No additional context or details were provided in the original report.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Expects Slight Rise in Inflation in Coming Months
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that he expects inflation to increase slightly over the next few months. The forecast was reported by financial news outlet Jin10. No further details on the magnitude or duration of the expected rise were provided in the brief statement. The comment reflects the central bank's near-term outlook for price pressures in the Canadian economy.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Inflation Forecast Will Guide October Rate Decision
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that inflation forecasts will be a key factor in the central bank's October monetary policy decision, as policymakers must determine whether current interest rates are sufficient or if further hikes are needed to bring consumer price index (CPI) back to the 2% target. Macklem expressed concern that fuel profit margins may take time to return to normal levels, which could make overall inflation more persistent. He also noted that inflation is expected to rise slightly in the coming months. The Bank of Canada has revised down its fourth-quarter annualized growth forecast to 0.75%. Macklem warned that if the bank moves too slowly on rate increases, it may be forced to hike more aggressively later. The remarks underscore the Bank of Canada's data-dependent approach as it balances the risks of inflation persistence against slowing economic growth.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Inflation Forecast Will Guide October Rate Decision
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that inflation forecasts will be a key factor in the central bank's October monetary policy decision, noting that policymakers must decide whether current interest rates are sufficient or if further hikes are needed to guide CPI back to the 2% target. Macklem expressed concern that fuel profit margins may take time to return to normal levels, which could make overall inflation more persistent. He also revised down the bank's fourth-quarter annualized growth forecast to 0.75%. Macklem warned that if the bank moves too slowly on rate increases, it may be forced to raise rates more aggressively later. He expects inflation to rise slightly in the coming months, and emphasized that the October decision will hinge on updated inflation projections.
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Inflation Forecast to Guide October Rate Decision
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that inflation forecasts will be a key factor in the central bank's October monetary policy decision, as policymakers weigh whether current interest rates are sufficient or if further hikes are needed to guide consumer price index (CPI) back to the 2% target. Macklem expressed concern that fuel profit margins may take time to return to normal levels, which could make overall inflation more persistent. He noted that the bank has revised down its fourth-quarter annualized growth forecast to 0.75% and expects inflation to rise slightly in the coming months. Macklem warned that if the bank moves too slowly on rate increases, it may be forced to hike more aggressively later. The remarks underscore the Bank of Canada's data-dependent approach as it navigates sticky inflation and a slowing economy.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Worries Fuel Profit Margin Normalization May Take Time
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem expressed concern that fuel profit margins may take some time to return to normal levels. Speaking in a public setting, Macklem highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the pace of normalization for these margins, which are a component of overall inflation dynamics. The remark suggests that elevated fuel margins could continue to exert upward pressure on consumer prices in the near term, complicating the central bank's efforts to bring inflation back to its target. Macklem did not provide a specific timeline for when margins might normalize, but his statement underscores the Bank of Canada's vigilance regarding persistent cost factors in the economy. The comment comes as the central bank monitors various price components to assess the trajectory of inflation and the appropriate stance of monetary policy.
Read sourceBank of Canada signals hawkish stance, warns oil prices key risk to inflation outlook
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that policymakers do not want to act too slowly on interest rate hikes if inflation pressures prove more persistent. In a speech in Halifax, Nova Scotia, he noted that the risk of sustained high inflation is rising due to the Middle East conflict pushing up energy prices, and monetary policy may need to respond. The central bank held its policy rate at 2.25% in September but emphasized that high oil prices increase upside risks to inflation. Canada's CPI has been around 3%, driven largely by gasoline prices, and the bank expects overall inflation to rise further if oil stays near $100 per barrel. While pass-through to other goods and services remains limited, the bank is increasingly concerned about broader price spillovers. Macklem was less pessimistic about the impact of new US tariffs on Canadian goods, estimating they affect about 5% of Canadian exports and could halve Q4 GDP growth to below 1%. The bank has developed a new forecasting model called 'Prima' to better distinguish temporary from persistent inflation shocks, to be used in the October Monetary Policy Report. The next rate decision is on October 28.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Warns of Risk in Delaying Rate Hikes Too Long
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that there is a risk of delaying interest rate hikes for too long. The central bank noted that a trade war with the United States could cause fourth-quarter economic growth to fall below 1%. High oil prices may push inflation higher, though so far there is no evidence of higher oil prices spreading to other goods and services. Recent natural gas prices are more aligned with oil, which is nearly $40 higher than before. Macklem indicated that if inflation pressures are under control, the bank does not want to raise rates to suppress growth. He also cited growing evidence that many Canadian businesses have begun adapting to U.S. tariff policies. The bank expects labor force growth to be near zero in the coming years.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Weighs Rate Policy Amid Energy Prices and Trade Uncertainty
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that future interest rate policy will depend on how businesses and households respond to two key factors: high energy prices and renewed trade uncertainty. He indicated that central bank officials are prepared to adjust monetary policy based on the development of these major risks. Macklem emphasized a balanced approach, saying that if inflation pressures are under control, the bank does not want to raise rates and stifle economic growth. However, if inflation proves more persistent, the bank does not want to react too slowly. The remarks, reported by Jin10 on September 21, highlight the delicate balancing act facing the Canadian central bank as it navigates conflicting economic forces.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Says Rate Hikes Unlikely If Inflation Pressures Are Controlled
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that if inflation pressures are brought under control, the central bank does not intend to raise interest rates to curb economic growth. The remark, reported by tradealpha, signals a conditional dovish stance, linking future monetary policy tightening to the trajectory of inflation. Macklem's comment suggests that the Bank of Canada is prioritizing inflation containment but is reluctant to use rate hikes as a tool to slow the economy if price pressures subside on their own. This outlook provides insight into the central bank's potential policy path, emphasizing a data-dependent approach where successful inflation control could prevent further tightening measures.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem Says No Evidence Yet of Oil Price Spillover to Other Goods
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that, so far, the central bank has not observed evidence that higher oil prices are spreading to other goods and services in the economy. This comment suggests that, despite recent increases in crude oil costs, the Bank of Canada does not yet see signs of broader inflationary pressure stemming from energy prices. The statement implies that the central bank is monitoring the situation closely but currently views the impact of oil price rises as contained to the energy sector, without triggering a general pass-through to consumer prices. This assessment may influence the Bank of Canada's monetary policy stance, as persistent spillover effects could complicate inflation management. The remark was reported by financial news outlet Jin10.
Read sourceBank of Canada Governor Macklem: Oil near $100 could push inflation up in coming months
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that if oil prices remain near $100 per barrel, the central bank expects inflation to rise slightly in the coming months. The forecast is conditional on sustained high oil prices and reflects the Bank of Canada's assessment of potential upward pressure on consumer prices from energy costs. Macklem's remarks indicate that the central bank is monitoring commodity price developments as a key factor in its inflation outlook, which could influence future monetary policy decisions. The statement was reported by financial news outlet Jin10.
Bank of Canada Signals Hawkish Stance, Warns Against Moving Too Slowly on Rate Hikes
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that policymakers do not want to move too slowly on interest rate hikes if inflation pressures prove more persistent. He highlighted that the risk of sustained high inflation is rising due to the Middle East conflict pushing up energy prices, and monetary policy may need to respond. Macklem noted that Canadian CPI inflation has been around 3%, largely driven by higher gasoline prices, and could rise further if oil stays near $100 per barrel. While the pass-through from energy to other prices remains limited so far, the central bank is increasingly concerned about broader transmission. On trade, Macklem acknowledged that new US tariffs on Canadian goods will hit affected sectors and may delay business investment, but he estimated the direct macroeconomic impact is limited, with affected goods representing about 5% of Canadian exports to the US. However, he warned that the tariffs could roughly halve Canada's fourth-quarter economic growth to below 1%. The Bank of Canada has developed a new forecasting model called 'Prima' to better distinguish temporary inflation shocks from persistent price pressures, which will debut in the October Monetary Policy Report. The next rate decision is scheduled for October 28.
Read sourceBank of Canada Warns Rate Hikes May Be Needed as Gas Prices Risk Broader Inflation
On September 17, the Bank of Canada released meeting minutes warning that interest rate increases might be necessary if elevated gasoline prices persist. The central bank held its policy rate steady at 2.25% at its earlier September meeting, but Governor Tiff Macklem struck a hawkish tone, stating inflation was too high and upside risks had increased. In the minutes, officials expressed concern that while they have not yet seen gasoline price increases spill over into other goods and services, this scenario is becoming increasingly likely if fuel costs remain persistently high. Officials agreed that if higher energy prices spread to other components of the CPI, a monetary policy response may be required to prevent broad-based inflation from taking hold. They noted uncertainty regarding the likelihood and magnitude of pass-through under current economic conditions, but added that higher gasoline prices increase the upside risks to inflation.
Read source