US Agencies Predict Early Onset of El Nino, Raising Monsoon Concerns for India
US agencies under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have announced that El Nino conditions are likely to emerge within weeks, significantly earlier than previously expected. The probability of El Nino developing during the May-July period has been raised to 82%, up from 61% last month, driven by rapid heating in the Pacific Ocean. This early onset suggests the weather phenomenon could persist throughout most of India's four-month monsoon season, rather than just the latter half. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which had already projected a below-normal monsoon at 92% of the long-period average, warns that an early El Nino will likely negatively impact rainfall. Historically, about 70% of El Nino events since 1980 have correlated with deficient monsoons in India. Furthermore, models indicate this could be one of the strongest events on record, with a 37% chance of evolving into a 'super' El Nino by late year, carrying major implications for global weather patterns.
Editorial responsibility
- No named human review is recorded for this page.
- Reports are grouped by semantic similarity and deterministic rules. Language models may assist titles, summaries, translation and cross-source analysis; the page itself is projected from evidence records.
- Current automated evidence projection