Question tracking
Get a current estimate, save it, and see how it changes with new information.
WorldTracking
The market prices a low probability of Putin leaving office before end-2026 because the next presidential election is scheduled for 2030 and he recently began a new term, indicating political stability.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Trump demanded Ukraine replace its president and stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher US diesel prices; Ukraine and European allies refused, straining US-Ukraine ties, though the conflict's course remains uncertain.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Mistral Large 4's open-weights plan shows European technical competitiveness, but evidence does not show it has substantively challenged US-China dominance; key uncertainty lies in post-release adoption and ecosystem building.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The low probability of Republicans keeping the House reflects Trump's historically low approval, Democratic leads in polls, and GOP primary interference undermining their edge.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
current likelihood for a 50+ bps hike after the October 2026 Fed meeting is very low, but inflation or jobs surprises could quickly reverse expectations; evidence shows the probability of a 25 bps hike in October has risen to about 50%.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
AI agents like Qwen Go performing autonomous transactions may raise consumer protection and liability issues, but current reports provide no specific cases or regulatory statements.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
As of mid-October 2026, Anthropic plans a Nasdaq IPO before the November midterms at a ~$2 trillion valuation, with regulatory probes, credit availability, and market liquidity as key variables.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Anthropic warns small AI models could self-replicate on IoT devices within months, but reports provide no evidence of actual impacts; specific cybersecurity and privacy consequences remain speculative.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
FinanceTracking
current likelihood for >50bp cut after Oct 2026 is very low, reflecting expectations of sticky inflation or resilience, but evidence doesn't establish overconfidence; an unexpectedly larger cut could trigger global asset price ripple effects.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Google launched Fitbit Edge to fill a mid-range band gap, but evidence does not show this is a competitive response to Apple or Samsung.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Amazon's reported ~$7B acquisition of Decart, if completed, would strengthen AWS-Trainium software-hardware synergy and competition with Nvidia, but the deal is not yet confirmed.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Karpathy's cognitive funnel shows ~0.2% professional users use frontier agents, which may skew model optimization toward niche high-demand scenarios, but current evidence does not directly confirm such distortion.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The low probability reflects Cristina's lifetime ban from office due to corruption conviction and Peronist internal divisions, leaving her nomination uncertain.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Anthropic reports a 90-99% reduction in reasoning-token extraction from distillation attacks, but the technical mechanism is not specified, so it is unclear whether it fundamentally blocks distillation or merely raises costs.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 警方调查结果尚不明确，是否构成侮辱罪有待法律裁定；同时，AfD及蒂尔施奈德本人是否会对犹太学生联盟采取法律行动或政治反击，以及该事件是否会影响2026年州议会后续议程，均存在不确定性。
TechnologyTracking
Evidence shows AI agents are becoming significant API documentation readers, driving semantic, machine-readable docs and automated generation, but lacks specific metrics or authoritative surveys.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Anthropic suspended live internet access for internal evaluations and updated safety guardrails, but reports provide no verification of effectiveness and no regulatory guidance, so sufficiency remains unestablished.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
xAI launched The X Subscription bundling Grok, Cursor, and X Premium into five tiers, potentially shifting AI tools from point competition to platform integration, but evidence does not show competitor responses.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Zacharia's unlicensed lawyer claim sparks integrity controversy; White House says license unnecessary; her job prospects remain uncertain.
Watching: 调查结果和职位变动存在不确定性，取决于律师协会的裁决、舆论压力及白宫内部决策。
TechnologyTracking
NVIDIA's Nemotron 3.5 family spans data-center to desktop tiers; enterprises can select models by deployment needs and post-train with NeMo on proprietary data.
Watching: 英伟达未公布各模型的具体性能指标、硬件要求及后训练工具链细节，企业实际选择标准尚不明确。
WorldTracking
Evidence indicates multiple shipping companies suspended or rerouted Hormuz routes and oil prices rose, but specific company announcements and price changes are not detailed.
Watching: 伊朗是否进一步升级袭击、美国及盟友的军事回应、航运公司实际决策均存在不确定性，油价波动幅度难以预测。
TechnologyTracking
YouTube Music introduced AI-generated song labels; industry groups including IFPI and RIAA had proposed broad AI labeling, but no unified standard is established yet.
Latest development: New evidence indicates that in July 2026, a coalition including IFPI, RIAA, and A2IM proposed broad AI labeling on streaming services, and YouTube's labels will combine platform detection tools with music partner analysis.
TechnologyTracking
Anthropic plans an IPO at up to $2 trillion valuation, which would be the largest ever if realized, but pricing is unconfirmed and some analysts call the valuation absurd.
Watching: 营收和盈利数据来自公司向投资者披露，未经独立审计；上市估值和定价尚未确定，市场反应存在变数。
TechnologyTracking
If Gemini 4.0 misses its public release, Google's competitive standing and investor confidence may suffer, but the actual impact depends on subsequent developments.