IMF-related activity slowed sharply this period, with a single event: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at an IMF appearance, declined to signal the Fed's next rate move while pledging to contain inflation and warning that AI will deliver a "shock" to the economy. His remarks boosted market expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in October, with investors trimming rate-hike bets; the dollar weakened, gold held gains, and US equities were steady to higher. Compared with the previous period's systemic financial stability warnings, this window's focus narrowed to one central banker's remarks, which left the October decision uncertain.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, at an IMF appearance, declined to signal the October rate path, pledging to contain inflation and warning AI will deliver a "shock" to the economy.
- Warsh's remarks boosted market expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in October, with investors trimming rate-hike bets.
- The dollar weakened, gold held gains, and US equities were steady to higher following his comments.
- Warsh pointed to US economic tailwinds and praised recent global monetary tightening, leaving the October decision uncertain.
