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Silver December futures opened at $64.14 per ounce on Friday, September 11, 2026, down 1.2% from Thursday's close. Prices recovered to $64.35 as of 7:11 a.m. ET. Analysts expect the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could lead the Fed to raise rates next week; the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rose to 69.4% from 62.4% the previous day.
Some analysts note that the AI boom and education costs have had an unusually significant impact on inflation, pushing up the overall figure while other sectors largely meet expectations. This has sparked a view that the Fed may hike rates only once before stopping. However, dissenters argue the data merely confirms persistent inflation still above the Fed's target, leaving the decision squarely with the central bank.
Bank of America said investors who piled into European and UK government bonds in recent months may be regretting their decisions after a sharp selloff. A BofA survey showed that despite turning more pessimistic on rate outlooks, respondents increased and held long-duration bond positions since early August. Strategist Ralf Preusser noted the divergence between duration exposure and investor views in euro and sterling bonds hit a record high, with buyer regret evident, helping explain recent selloffs in UK gilts and German Bunds.
Goldman Sachs economist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo said the CPI released on September 11 was broadly in line with expectations, but the survey period predated the latest energy price surge and the spread of commodity gains to metals and agriculture, failing to fully capture recent inflation pressures. She noted little evidence inflation is returning to target in the near term, leaving the Fed with a rate hike option but not forced to act, and advised markets to focus on Walsh's communication, energy prices, and labor data instead.
According to AXIOS, US consumer prices remained high in August as the Iran war triggered an energy shock that further fueled inflation. International oil prices hover around $100 per barrel, up from about $80 in mid-August, and the average US diesel price hit a record $6 per gallon. The report said underlying inflation shows resilience across the broader economy, and the data may strengthen the case for the Fed to raise interest rates next week.
According to the Washington Post, the U.S. Labor Department's CPI report released on Sept. 11 showed that inflation in August was unchanged from the previous month on a year-over-year basis, in line with market expectations. Energy prices rose while rent increases continued to moderate. Housing price gains have slowed recently, and UBS analysts expect the pace of housing cost increases to 'continue to slow for about a year.' Inflation has now exceeded the Fed's 2% annual target for more than five years.
Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the bank will inject capital into the state-owned reinsurance company to address increased insurance payouts caused by drone attacks. The move aims to ease claims pressure; no specific amount was disclosed.
Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina announced the injection of 165 billion rubles into the country's major reinsurance company.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year in August, both above expectations. Headline CPI, driven by higher energy prices, increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. The report indicated little progress in inflation moving toward the Fed's target, with persistent pressures from the Iran war, tariffs, and data center construction. Markets have increased bets on a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, pushing US Treasury yields higher.
Nick Timiraos, known as the 'Fed whisperer,' cited data showing that in August CPI, core services inflation excluding housing rose 0.51% month-over-month, the largest gain since January, and 3% year-over-year. Core goods inflation rose 0.11% MoM and 0.7% YoY, while housing inflation rose 0.26% MoM and 3% YoY.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Sept 11 that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year in August, both above expectations. Higher energy costs pushed the headline CPI up 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Traders now see about a 90% probability of a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting.
Short-term interest rate futures in the US declined after the release of inflation data, as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September.
Bitcoin opened at $76,535.95 on Friday, September 11, 2026, down 2.2% from Thursday, and later traded at $76,758.63. Ethereum opened at $2,437.02, down 1.2%. Markets await key inflation data, with 69.4% of analysts expecting a rate hike next week, a headwind for non-yielding cryptocurrencies.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, before the release of August CPI data, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September is 30.6%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 69.4%. For the October meeting, the market sees a 19.1% chance of no change, a 54.8% chance of a 25-bp hike, and a 26.1% chance of a 50-bp hike.
Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the bank is not considering raising its inflation target.
India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $785.71 billion as of the week ending September 4, setting a new all-time high.
Gold December futures opened at $4,359.40 per troy ounce on Friday, down 1.1% from Thursday's close, the lowest since August 6. The price later edged up to $4,387.10. Ahead of the August CPI report, market expectations for a Fed rate hike next week rose to 69.4% from 62.2% yesterday, which could cap near-term gold gains.
Hopes for a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict have faded, pushing Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel for the first time since July, closing up 6% at nearly $108 on Thursday. Surging energy prices have lifted inflation expectations, driving the US 10-year Treasury yield above 4.9%, approaching 5%. Markets await today's US CPI data and next week's Fed meeting, with pricing implying a greater than 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
Russia's central bank kept its key interest rate at 14% on Friday, resisting pressure from businesses that say borrowing is too expensive for investment. The bank cited rising price pressures and moderate economic growth. Russia's $2.6 trillion economy slowed sharply last year due to high rates, Western sanctions, and other factors, with growth expected to be just above zero in 2026. Companies argue the economy will only grow if the key rate falls below 12%.
The Bank of Russia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 14.00% on September 11, a decision that matched market expectations.
As of September 11, 2026, the highest certificate of deposit (CD) rate is 4.35% APY on an 18-month term, offered by Marcus by Goldman Sachs. The article notes that CD rates have been declining due to three Fed rate cuts in late 2024 and three in 2025, but with no further cuts so far in 2026, some banks still offer competitive rates, with top rates around 4% APY for terms of one year or less.
Global equity funds recorded net outflows of $15.52 billion in the week to Sept 9, the largest since March 18, driven by $32.27 billion in net selling of U.S. equity funds, according to LSEG Lipper data cited by Reuters. European and Asian funds attracted $11.16 billion and $3.03 billion, respectively. Brent crude hit a four-month high of $109.97 a barrel on Friday after breaching $100 on Wednesday, fueling concerns that persistent inflation could prompt major central banks to raise rates.
A survey of 48 economists found only 13 expect a rate hike this month, with most seeing rates on hold through end-2027. Yet market pricing implies a 70% probability of a hike next week. The Conference Board's Yelena Shulyatyeva expects no moves in September, October, or December, but warns that any clear inflation pickup would force the Fed to act.
Speaking at an event in Texas on Sept. 8, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has 'asymmetric information' about what the Bank of Japan and Japanese policymakers will do, so traders should not bet against his plan to bolster the yen. 'I am the house now,' Bessent said. The U.S. bought an estimated billions of yen in July, its first such intervention in 30 years, after the yen hit a four-decade low. As of Sept. 8, the yen had recovered to ¥153.76 per dollar from ¥163 in July.
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