U.S., Iran near fragile ceasefire after Strait of Hormuz attacks

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U.S. and Iran Reportedly Reach New Truce After Weekend Clashes

After a series of attacks targeting civilian ships and military bases over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran may have reached another agreement to de-escalate hostilities. Iran struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday and Saturday. Following U.S. retaliation, Iranian drones targeted American bases in the region.

In the early hours of Monday, an unnamed American official told The New York Times that a new agreement to stop the fighting was in place. Later, President Donald Trump announced a new round of peace talks set to begin Tuesday in Qatar.

Ceasefire Language Blamed for Latest Violence

The latest clashes are being attributed to deliberately vague language in the ceasefire deal the two countries signed earlier this month.

"The memorandum that the two sides agreed to calls for Iran to 'make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels' through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. Crucially, it leaves 'arrangements' and 'best efforts' undefined," reports The New York Times.

Adding to the ambiguity, Oman—which lies on the opposite bank of the strait—has been working with the International Maritime Organization to open a new shipping channel near its shores. Iran, however, believes the ceasefire deal gives it the authority to determine the "arrangements" for vessels transiting the strait, leading it to fire upon a ship using the Oman-adjacent channel.

Disagreement Over Timing and Scope

The dispute may also involve the duration of the ceasefire terms. The current deal requires Iran to refrain from charging tolls on ships passing through Hormuz for 60 days. However, the U.S. appears committed to a permanent restoration of free navigation—the condition that existed before the war began.

If early reports of a renewed ceasefire prove true, that would be good news. However, it is clear that, unlike the geography of the strait itself, the two sides remain far apart in long-term peace talks. The war continues to drag on, despite being deeply unpopular, facing increasing congressional pushback, and yielding few tangible accomplishments.

FedGPT: U.S. Government Tightens Control Over Advanced AI

The federal government is asserting its power to decide who can access the newest versions of advanced AI platforms.

• OpenAI said Friday that the U.S. government would initially approve access to its latest release while the company and the administration work out a longer-term regulatory plan, according to The Washington Post.
• Hours later, the Commerce Department sent a letter to rival AI developer Anthropic, instructing the company to provide its latest model, Mythos 5, only to a restricted list of U.S.-based companies.

In a statement, OpenAI said it did not "believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them." The company added that it is complying with the government's request while rolling out its new Sol, Tera, and Luna models.

After initially adopting a relatively hands-off approach to AI development, the Trump administration appears to be reversing course.

Dean W. Ball (@deanwball) posted on X: "In a matter of weeks, U.S. federal AI policy has gone from implausibly libertarian to increasingly draconian and opaque. Today, over 35 distinct observations, I analyze how we got here and offer the most succinct statement I can about what exactly I propose we should do next."

Scenes from Minneapolis: Businesses Still Feel Under Siege

I recently spent several days in the Twin Cities for a friend's wedding. While the national political conversation has moved on from the ugly scenes that played out there last winter, it is clear that many residents and businesses still feel under siege. In some neighborhoods, it seems like every bar, shop, and restaurant is displaying some version of: "Everyone is welcome here, except the feds."

Some of this is surely virtue signaling. But as someone who believes most political problems could be solved with a robust application of property rights, it is also encouraging. When the feds come knocking, it is necessary. I applaud Minnesotans who know their rights and broadcast that fact.

— Eric Boehm

Quick Hits

• Feed every single anecdote from this Peggy Noonan piece about the World Cup directly into my veins. A sample: "Second, when you live inside something—a country, a way of life—you inevitably stop seeing it. Walk by the same work of art for 30 years, you won't really 'see' it each day. The young European arriving at a Dallas Costco or a California In-N-Out Burger sees a small marvel of organization, scale..."