Trump announces all parties approved deal to end Iran conflict

Topics: Conflict | Iran | Israel | Politics & Diplomacy | United States and Canada

JUST IN

The final bell of this bout may be near. The United States and Iran have traded blows in recent days, with the US launching two nights of strikes in southern Iran after Iran downed a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iranian forces responded with attacks against Gulf countries and a US air base in Jordan.

US President Donald Trump threatened further escalation this morning, but then reversed course this afternoon, calling off strikes and saying that all parties had "approved" a deal.

What does this back-and-forth signal about the state of the war and the negotiations? We turned to our experts for answers.

TODAY'S EXPERT REACTION

• William Wechsler (@WillWechsler) — Senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combatting terrorism
• Alex Plitsas (@alexplitsas) — Head of the Counterterrorism Project in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former counterterrorism official in the Office of the Secretary of Defense
• Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley — Distinguished fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, former special assistant for the Middle East and Africa to the US secretary of state, former president of the Middle East Policy Council, and current senior advisor at WestExec Advisors

Trump's Plan

• Trump's goal with this escalation was to force a deal with, as Will puts it, "the rather generous terms" for Iran that have been discussed for several weeks: Iran allows shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for financial incentives, with tougher decisions about Tehran's nuclear program punted to future talks.
• This afternoon, Trump announced on social media that he was calling off tonight's planned strikes and a deal signing would be announced soon, though he did not offer details. "He needed to ensure they knew he would strike if pushed and wouldn't be strung along," Alex says.
• Gina argues that Trump pulled back because "wiser heads got to him." The conditions that "brought Trump to the April truce haven't changed": He does not want an indefinite conflict.

Details of a Deal

• The big question following Trump's turnaround, Alex says, is whether "the military pressure compelled Iran to accept terms it has previously resisted. I've been skeptical that Tehran would change course, but we will find out if and when an agreement is signed and made public."
• But even a deal that stops the immediate fighting is unlikely to address all the underlying issues, Will says. Next, he expects Iranian officials to undertake "yet another diplomatic attempt to stall for time through a cycle of different intermediaries, since from their perspective it's worked so well for them thus far."

The Regional Implications

• Gina points to the growing divide between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the war. The Israeli leader is resisting US pressure to end Israeli strikes in Lebanon that are popular at home, while he sees talks trending toward an unacceptable outcome for Israel: "Iran's government intact while permitting a restricted but continuing nuclear program."
• "A US president frustrated by what he sees as Iranian foot-dragging, an Israeli prime minister marginaliz