Contrarian live blog: Democrats ride wave in 2026 midterms, capture Senate and House

Welcome to Election Night, Contrarians! Jen Rubin, Tim Dickinson, and the rest of the Contrarian Crew bring you live updates on the most critical races to watch as America's votes are tallied. Will there be a blue wave? Or will MAGA keep power in Congress? Follow along with us for the 2026 midterms.

🔄 Refresh this page periodically to see the latest update.

Tim Dickinson, 12:13 a.m.

With Peggy Flanagan's called victory in Minnesota, Democrats now control 52 seats in the Senate, which means John Fetterman — the Pennsylvania Democratic senator who has become cozy with MAGA elements — is no longer pivotal to the party's ability to govern. Flanagan's win also builds on the Democrats' historic night of firsts, as she becomes the first Native American woman to hold a Senate seat.

Tim Dickinson, 11:50 p.m.

With Josh Turek's victory in Iowa, Democrats have seized control of the Senate — in addition to flipping the House. Democrats will have the weight and responsibility of governing in opposition to Trump and daring him to veto popular legislation. Senate control also gives Democrats the ability to stop Trump's packing of the courts with MAGA judges. The question remains how big a margin Democrats will control in the upper chamber, with calls still outstanding in Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, and Alaska, among other states.

Jennifer Rubin, 11:25 p.m.

Some big wins come through. Sherrod Brown, Josh Turek, and Adam Hamilton win for Senate, pushing Democrats toward 54 or 55 seats. To take us out tonight, I wanted to share some of Sen. Jon Ossoff's acceptance speech, which was truly inspirational — a fitting capstone for a night not yet over:

"In sweeping and decisive victories, the American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption, and incompetence of the failed lame duck president Donald J. Trump. And if, at times these last two years, amidst the ceaseless onslaught of brutality and indecency, you doubted whether our republic would survive, let tonight's results give you courage that the first light of dawn is on the horizon."

He went on:

"That this moment is an opening not for restoration, but for reformation. And, so, amidst our celebration tonight, we must acknowledge that the underlying crisis gripping our republic remains and that therefore our most vital work lies ahead.

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Because while the wealthy and well-lobbied feast on inside information and official favors, America's forgotten families are treated to systemic corporate disrespect and official indifference, working harder and harder while the treadmill just gets faster and steeper, and the bills get higher and higher."

He is a generational talent who can remind us:

"I know many of you have poured yourselves into this campaign, not for my sake or for the sake of the Democratic party, but because you're so deeply troubled by the pain our fellow human beings are enduring right now — the terror of a child watching ICE take away her mother, the despair of a cancer patient losing coverage mid-treatment. But that ache in your heart, that pit in your stomach, that feeling's what reminds us we're all in this together, that we're not just one United States, we're one united people. E pluribus unum. Out of many, one. And over centuries, despite our sins and through courageous struggle, the flame of American freedom has grown brighter and bolder and given hope to the whole world.

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We've stumbled. We almost lost our way. But, Georgia, for all our troubles, let me assure you tonight that, propelled by this historic and undeniable victory, I have no doubt we will overcome them. And now our task is to reawaken that great national spirit that defeated fascism and established Social Security, that put men on the moon and passed civil rights laws in order to meet the challenges and obligations of our time, because I refuse to accept that my two little girls will grow up in a world as dark and dangerous and cruel as this one threatens to become."

Let's keep that spirit and commitment alive.

Tim Dickinson, 11:23 p.m.

Texas has gone blue in an extraordinary way. Not only has James Talarico won his Senate contest against the comically terrible Ken Paxton, but three-term GOP governor Greg Abbott has conceded to Democrat Gina Hinojosa. This is a political earthquake. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994. It's hard to process what this portends. But if Texas emerges as any kind of swing state in the 2028 election, that's 40 electoral college votes potentially at play. A truly landscape-shifting impact from tonight's Blue Tsunami.

Tim Dickinson, 11:20 p.m.

Sherrod Brown was perfectly poised for a comeback. He comes across as a genuine and decent man, running on a sincere brand of populism that keeps the little guy at the center. He's like the antivenin to Trumpist poison. He's a thoughtful critic of free trade and campaigned hard against taxpayer giveaways to Big Tech data centers. He ousted appointed Sen. Jon Husted, who centered his Trump-endorsed derriere in his closing argument.

Tim Dickinson, 11:02 p.m.

Democrat Amy Acton has won the race for Ohio governor, defeating the billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, who leaned into one of the most despicable closing ads in recent memory. Acton, a doctor who helped manage Ohio's response to the Covid pandemic, ran on her working-class roots against the influence of moneyed elites and will become the first Democrat to run the state since 2011.

Watch her full interview with Jen Rubin here: The Contrarian — "Ohioans Want Change. Billionaires Won't Help."

Vivek Ramaswamy (a man so unpopular Elon Musk kicked him out of DOGE) is running for Ohio Governor. While he's flying around Ohio in his private jet and receiving $10 million donations from billionaires, Dr. Amy Acton is running to fight for everyday Ohioans… Listen now

Jennifer Rubin, 10:47 p.m.

Nepo babies are having a bad night. So far, John Sununu lost for Senate in New Hampshire, Darline Graham lost for Senate in South Carolina, and Tom Kean Jr. lost in New Jersey's 7th. Maybe people don't put much stock in old family names when the current generation does not offer them much.

Tim Dickinson, 10:38 p.m.

Bob Brooks — a fireman and union leader — has won the House seat in Pennsylvania 07, centered on Allentown. Brooks is one of the "working-class wave" Democrats we profiled this fall: candidates whose lived experience gives them a personal stake in the politics of affordability that have defined this election. Brooks talked to us about wanting to change the ratio where 60 percent of Americans are working class, but only 2 percent of congressmembers come from that financial strata.

The Contrarian — "These Working Class Dems Are Running to Help Their Communities"

Democrats are fielding a strong slate of working class candidates. Take it from Bob Brooks, a firefighter who's running for the House in Pennsylvania… Listen now

Jennifer Rubin, 10:34 p.m.

There you have it: The House will have a Democratic majority. The size is still to be determined, but the margin will be LARGE. The Senate is headed for Democratic control. So far, North Carolina and South Carolina have been officially called. The AP has yet to give James Talarico the win in Texas (but several independent analysts have). For now, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, and Iowa — which would all be pickups — are leaning Democratic. Keeping Michigan in Democratic hands means the potential, should Alaska go for Democrats, for a huge margin in the Senate. Should independent Dan Osborn win in Nebraska, Republicans would drop down NINE seats. We are not there yet, but a defeat of this magnitude would be earth-shattering. We'll keep watching, but this is a potential inflection point in U.S. politics.

Jennifer Rubin, 9:29 p.m.

KY-6 is huge, indicative of the big night for Dems. Other huge victories in the offing: Indiana 5, NC-1 and 11, and likely all 4 PA seats (1, 7, 8, and 10). This looks to be the blue tsunami many hoped to achieve. But there are still highly competitive races in Virginia and elsewhere. The SIZE of the wave is yet to be determined.

Tim Dickinson, 9:23 p.m.

Update your bets, ladies and gentlemen. This race from Kentucky horse country signals that the blue wave is materializing. Kentucky 6 leans heavily GOP (R+7), so the fact that it was listed as a tossup by Cook Political Report was a sign of Democrats' good fortune. Zach Dembo has a hell of a resume as a public servant. Raised in Lexington, Dembo is a Stanford grad who worked as an educator in the Mississippi Delta. He later graduated with a Michigan Law degree, signed up for Navy service, including as a JAG, and then worked as a prosecutor for DOJ in the Civil Rights division, before serving as Gov. Andy Beshear's legislative director and later an assistant U.S. attorney. He's a rising star. And his win could point to Democrats taking a victory lap.

Tim Dickinson, 9:13 p.m.

Huge, historic result from Georgia. KLB defeats billionaire Rick "Action" Jackson, who self-funded his own primary bid, beating a Trump-backed contender. I profiled the race in our list of seven governor races to watch. Keisha Lance Bottoms is a former Atlanta mayor and former senior adviser to President Biden. Her victory will be seen as part of a major Black voter backlash to the Supreme Court Callais decision that hollowed out the Voting Rights Act. Jackson, for his part, can return to his sidequest as a money-losing film producer, and lick his political wounds with friend, business partner, and fellow political face-planter Jeb Bush.

The Contrarian — "7 Governor Races to Watch"

If the 2026 midterms develop into a Blue Wave, Democrats not only have an opportunity to capture Congress, but to expand their capacity to govern in states across the nation. Democrats currently hold twenty-four governors' mansions, meaning a solid majority — important for symbolism as much as for blue-state solidarity — is within reach. (Fun fact: Demo… Read more

Jennifer Rubin, 9:11 p.m.

Keisha Lance Bottoms is projected to win the Georgia governor's race. She will be the first African American female governor in U.S. history and the first woman to win statewide in Georgia. This is a victory of historic proportions, a direct blowback to the assault on voting rights as well as the serial outrages (inflation, ICE abuse, healthcare cuts) all Americans have experienced. Americans have decided they want something better.

Tim Dickinson, 9:03 p.m.

The Cooper victory in North Carolina is not a big surprise, but obviously an important flip for Democrats on the march to recapturing the Senate. This is a state where candidate quality made what should have been a tight race on paper into a blowout. After all, it was Republican Sen. Thom Tillis' seat and North Carolina is R+1 statewide. Instead, Cook Political had this race as "Likely D" going into election night. The Democrats had a star: Cooper is a widely respected former governor with an established track record with voters. His opponent Michael Whatley looked impressive on the stat sheet. He has been a bigshot in GOP circles for a long time, adjacent to power. He was a chief of staff to Sen. Elizabeth Dole before becoming the head of the North Carolina GOP and later the national RNC. He clearly knows politics, but as a candidate in his own right he has all the charisma of a wet paper towel. He had Trump's backing and promised to advance Trump's agenda. But Senate Republicans gave up on funding his race at the beginning of October.

Jennifer Rubin, 8:46 p.m.

Republican Ashley Moody held the Senate seat for Republicans in Florida, but it was extremely competitive. The governor's race is neck and neck. This is EXTRAORDINARY for Florida.

Tim Dickinson, 8:35 p.m.

Dr. Annie Andrews winning in South Carolina would be a legitimately jaw-dropping result — and would give Democrats margin for error in their quest to capture the Senate. The complexion of this race changed when Lindsey Graham died unexpectedly in July and was replaced on the ballot by his sister Da…

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