Wire flash
Analyst flags Anthropic growth deceleration in Q3 data not reported in draft S-1
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An analyst post cautions that two views of Anthropic's data tell different stories. One view, from @altcap, excludes Q3 and shows a rising trend; the other, extended into Q3 by @billylo using public data, shows deceleration relative to that rise. The post argues Q2 marked the peak of "tokenmaxxing" and that Q3 begins a post-tokenmaxxing regime with growth decelerating. It contends a realistic picture of Anthropic's prospects requires examining these data, and notes that the draft S-1 did not report them. The claims are attributed to the cited accounts and presented as commentary rather than a company announcement.
Source report
Note: Two views of Anthropic are circulating — one without Q3 data (from @altcap), and another extended into Q3 based on public data (by @billylo).
The Two Views
- Without Q3 (@altcap): Shows a rising trend.
- With Q3 (@billylo): Shows a deceleration relative to that rise.
Key Takeaway
Q2 marked the peak of "tokenmaxxing." Q3 represents the dawn of a new post-tokenmaxxing regime, with growth decelerating.
Why It Matters
A realistic picture of Anthropic's prospects is impossible without examining this data — yet the draft S-1 did not report it.
Source
GaryMarcusNeutral / independent