Guosen Securities: AI short dramas emerge as attention-economy market; Douyin adds about 25,000 AI simulated-human dramas monthly
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Guosen Securities released an AI industry report on AI short dramas, arguing that improving model capabilities are pushing the format toward simulated live-action and industrialized production. On Douyin, AI simulated-human dramas add about 25,000 titles monthly, and AI drama/animation penetration reaches 90% on leading short-drama apps, with per-title costs falling to 30,000-50,000 yuan. China's short-drama deduplicated users total 851 million, with strong head effects on Hongguo and WeChat ecosystems. On Douyin, only 4.4% of native short dramas exceed 10 million views, so profitability depends on hit rates. Overseas, Asia drives downloads while North America shows stronger payment. The report suggests watching traffic gateways, distribution platforms, and production companies with quality IP, mature AI workflows, and stable hit rates.
Source report
Source: Guosen Securities — AI Industry Special Report (24) Date: October 25, 2026
Overview
According to a research report by Guosen Securities, improvements in model capabilities are driving AI short dramas toward simulated live-action quality and industrialized production.
Key Data Points
- Douyin: AI-simulated live-action dramas see 25,000 new titles added monthly.
- Leading short drama apps: AI drama/animated drama penetration rate reaches 90%.
- Cost: Per-title production cost has dropped to RMB 30,000–50,000.
- Domestic market: Deduplicated short drama users total 851 million, with strong head effects on Hongguo and within the WeChat ecosystem.
- Douyin native short dramas: Only 4.4% exceed 10 million views, with profitability dependent on hit rates.
- Overseas market: Asia drives downloads, while North America shows stronger willingness to pay.
Recommendations
The report suggests paying attention to:
- Traffic entry points and distribution platforms
- Production companies with quality IP, mature AI workflows, and stable hit rates
Source
research_reportNeutral / independent