Bundeswehr raises Russian sabotage threat level to second-highest

VIENNA — Germany's military, the Bundeswehr, has raised its assessment of the Russian sabotage threat to its second-highest level, warning that German forces themselves could face attacks at home, according to a classified internal analysis reported by public broadcaster WDR and newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung on Oct. 21.

Broader Threat Assessment

The report's findings point to a potentially broader threat than German military security specialists had previously anticipated. Their concerns had centered on installations training Ukrainian troops, alongside naval bases and shipyards. The new assessment says authorities can no longer geographically confine specific sites deemed vulnerable, warning instead of an all-around deterioration in the security situation, with concrete actions possible in the near term.

Wunstorf Drone Incident

The reassessment follows the discovery of an apparently crashed drone near Wunstorf air base in northern Germany in September. Investigators found a can containing explosives a few meters away, according to the report. They suspect the aircraft may have targeted military planes rather than civilian cargo aircraft.

WDR and Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that investigators believe the Wunstorf drone had lain near the base for about two years, citing technical analysis by Germany's Federal Criminal Police Office. Its construction resembled an explosives-equipped drone used in a failed attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in early August, the outlets reported, though it would have significantly predated the Leipzig incident.

Distinction Between Incidents

The military analysis draws a distinction between the two incidents:

• Leipzig: Presented an indirect threat to German forces, targeting Ukrainian aircraft instead.
• Wunstorf: Likely involved the Bundeswehr itself as the target.

The assessment describes Russia as almost certainly possessing the capability, and very likely an increased motivation, to act against German forces and facilities, as well as Ukrainian partners in Germany.

It also concludes that Russia's use of drones as weapons crossed a previously anticipated "red line" involving an intention to cause physical damage or potentially lethal effects.

The German government has publicly attributed the Leipzig drone attack to Russia following a month-long investigation.

Strategic Objectives

The analysis links the suspected campaign to efforts to weaken political and public support for Ukraine in Germany. At the operational level, it assesses that Moscow seeks to disrupt equipment deliveries and training, undermining Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

Military Response

An Operational Command spokesperson told WDR that the Bundeswehr currently considers the sabotage risk "substantial" because of the increased threat. This places it at the second-highest level of the military's risk assessment scale, SZ reported.

The military is strengthening protective measures at its installations to safeguard personnel and facilities, the spokesperson said.

The warning follows suspicious drone flights over sites associated with Germany's Arrow 3 missile-defense system and Patriot maintenance facilities. German security authorities suspect Russian involvement in those and other surveillance incidents, WDR reported.

Russian Denials

Russia has consistently denied involvement in sabotage and hybrid attacks, and has blamed Germany for staging incidents to whip up anti-Russian sentiment. Moscow's ambassador to Berlin previously dismissed Germany's allegations over Leipzig as "absurd" and described the incident as a "provocation."

About the Author

Linus Höller

Linus Höller is Defense News' Europe correspondent and OSINT investigator. He reports on the arms deals, sanctions, and geopolitics shaping Europe and the world. He holds master's degrees in WMD nonproliferation, terrorism studies, and international relations, and works in four languages: English, German, Russian, and Spanish.

Share:

More In Europe