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Polysilicon average transaction prices rise about 10,000 yuan per ton in two months, back above 40,000 yuan
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According to the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the average transaction price of n-type polysilicon (rod silicon) and n-type granular silicon both exceeded 40,000 yuan per ton in the week of September 17-23, up about 10,000 yuan per ton from late July. The price recovery is driven by industry self-discipline initiatives, new national energy efficiency standards, and strong expectations of supply contraction. From October, overall industry operating rates are expected to fall to around 35%. Downstream companies are mainly making just-in-time purchases and moderate inventory replenishment; large-scale centralized procurement has not yet occurred. Analysts from Shanghai Ganglian and the Silicon Branch noted that polysilicon producers are firm on pricing, quoting at full cost as a floor, while downstream wafer companies still hold some inventory. Experts forecast that the effectiveness of production cuts, sustainability of spot transactions, and recovery of end demand will determine future price trends. China Photovoltaic Industry Association consultant Lv Jinbiao expects price transmission in the fourth quarter but warns the industry must maintain low operating rates even after prices return to cost levels.
Source report
Driven by industry self-discipline initiatives and three new national standards on energy consumption and efficiency, the polysilicon market has experienced a notable price recovery. After a nearly two-month hiatus, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Branch (hereinafter referred to as the "Silicon Branch") has resumed publishing weekly polysilicon transaction prices. The average transaction prices for n-type recharging material (rod silicon) and n-type granular silicon have both surpassed 40,000 RMB per ton, representing an increase of approximately 10,000 RMB per ton compared to late July.
According to a Shanghai Securities News reporter's investigation, expectations of supply contraction are the core driver of this price movement. Currently, downstream demand is primarily driven by essential procurement and moderate inventory replenishment, with no large-scale centralized purchasing yet materializing. Industry experts suggest that the effectiveness of production cuts, the sustainability of spot transactions, and the recovery of end-user demand will determine future price trends.
Latest Price Data
On September 23, the Silicon Branch released its weekly polysilicon review. For the week of September 17 to 23:
- n-type recharging material (rod silicon): Average transaction price of 43,000 RMB per ton
- n-type granular silicon: Transaction price range of 40,000 to 41,000 RMB per ton, with an average of 40,300 RMB per ton
This marks the first official disclosure of polysilicon transaction prices by the Silicon Branch since the implementation of three mandatory national standards on energy consumption and efficiency in the photovoltaic industry, along with the "General Rules for Photovoltaic Industry Cost Accounting Models" and other industry policies and self-regulatory measures.
Comparison with Previous Pricing
The Silicon Branch's previous quotation was on July 29. During that week (July 23 to 29):
- n-type recharging material: Average transaction price of 32,000 RMB per ton
- n-type granular silicon: Average transaction price of 31,000 RMB per ton
The latest quotations show a significant increase, with both varieties rising by approximately 10,000 RMB per ton.
Market Analysis
The Silicon Branch attributed the price recovery to the gradual clarification of production adjustment plans by various enterprises, which has further strengthened expectations of supply-side contraction. Starting in October, the overall industry operating rate is expected to decline to approximately 35%.
As a result, some downstream enterprises have begun to replenish inventories. Polysilicon producers are firmly maintaining their price positions, generally quoting based on full cost as a baseline. However, overall, downstream enterprises still hold raw material inventories beyond essential procurement needs, and large-scale centralized purchasing has not yet commenced.
Industry Expert Commentary
Wang Zhichao, a photovoltaic industry analyst at Shanghai Ganglian, noted that September has seen a pattern of strong expectations for production cuts but weak spot transaction volumes, with prices generally moving sideways. Polysilicon producers are showing strong resistance to price reductions and are unwilling to actively lower prices to move inventory. However, downstream wafer manufacturers still maintain certain inventory levels, and recent procurement has largely been completed through futures and spot channels, resulting in a relatively slow pace of spot transactions.
Future Price Outlook
Regarding future price trends for polysilicon, the Silicon Branch believes that as enterprises' production adjustment plans are gradually implemented from October onward, the substantive impact of supply-side contraction will begin to emerge.
Lyu Jinbiao, a consulting expert with the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, suggested that price transmission may be observed in the fourth quarter. However, even after prices recover to cost levels, the industry will still need to maintain low operating rates.
(Source: Shanghai Securities News)
Source
上海证券报Eastern
Part of this Story
Polysilicon prices recover above 40,000 yuan/ton on supply cut expectations and new standards