China Re P&C: Property insurers' annual premiums to exceed 2 trillion yuan by end of 15th Five-Year Plan

The domestic property insurance industry has largely moved away from its previous extensive development model that prioritized scale over profitability, demonstrating a healthy trajectory toward high-quality growth. Meanwhile, global reinsurance premium rates remain adequate.

On September 23, the 2026 China Property Reinsurance Market Seminar was held under the theme "Direct-Reinsurance Integration Drives Innovation, Win-Win for the '15th Five-Year' Transformation." The seminar reviewed the development of the property insurance industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021–2025) and outlined prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026–2030), noting broad development opportunities and anticipating rapid growth in sectors such as technology insurance and energy & power insurance.

Shift Away from "Scale Over Profitability" Model

According to data, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's property insurance industry recorded an average annual premium growth rate of 5.3%, a slowdown compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. However, the industry's overall combined ratio and expense ratio declined significantly, signaling a fundamental shift away from the extensive development model that emphasized scale over profitability.

China Re Property Insurance (China Re P&C) noted that the property insurance industry achieved overall underwriting profitability during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, reversing the underwriting losses seen during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.

This improvement was largely driven by better underwriting performance in auto insurance. Data shows that, in addition to leading insurers achieving underwriting profits in auto insurance, small and medium-sized insurers also posted underwriting profits in their auto insurance businesses overall. Furthermore, the structure of auto insurance claims and expenses improved, with expense ratios declining and loss ratios rising.

In terms of business mix, the share of non-auto insurance premiums has increased year by year. In 2025, non-auto insurance accounted for 46.4% of total premiums, up more than 7 percentage points from 39.3% in 2020. Within non-auto insurance, underwriting performance varied across lines in recent years: agricultural insurance and accident & health insurance achieved underwriting profits, while liability insurance, corporate property & engineering insurance, credit & surety insurance, and marine cargo & special risk insurance experienced underwriting losses in certain years.

Reinsurance Market Trends

In China's property reinsurance market, ceded premiums have maintained steady growth. In 2025, the reinsurance cession ratios for major non-auto lines—including property & engineering, marine, liability, credit, and health insurance—increased. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the overall property reinsurance cession ratio exceeded 10%, continuing its upward trend from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.

At the same time, regulators have guided the insurance and reinsurance industries to play a role as "two reservoirs and three networks," shifting insurance services from "post-loss compensation" to "pre-loss prevention." This approach balances coverage expansion with risk mitigation, effectively supporting the real economy.

Wang Simiao, Chief Officer of the Insurance Association of China, stated that China's property insurance industry has maintained a stable development trajectory in recent years. Since the release of the new "National Ten Articles," the industry's focus on returning to its core risk protection function has become clearer, and its effectiveness in serving the real economy and public welfare has steadily improved.

Super El Niño Intensifies Loss Expectations

Analyzing risk trends, China Re P&C noted that since 2026, losses from typhoons and geological disasters have increased, while safety accidents in certain regions and industries have become more frequent and severe, putting pressure on underwriting profitability.

Looking ahead, the property insurance industry must remain vigilant about:

• Climate risks driven by super El Niño events
• Geopolitical risks arising from geo-economic tensions
• Systemic risks from the explosive growth of AI applications

Given expectations of higher loss volatility, reinsurance companies are expected to strengthen risk controls to address potential fluctuations.

In the international reinsurance market, China Re P&C reported that global reinsurance market size continued to grow in 2026. Influenced by factors such as the U.S.-Iran conflict and super El Niño events, the downward trend in reinsurance premium rates varied across lines, but overall rates remained adequate.

Bright Prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period

As the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins, the seminar also focused on the industry's development trends over the next five years.

China Re P&C believes the property insurance industry has broad prospects during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. National economic and social development plans—including industrial, special, and regional plans—provide new directions for innovative growth in the property insurance sector. Meanwhile, comprehensive governance of non-auto insurance is driving the establishment of a standardized, professional, and refined market system, ushering in a new cycle of high-quality development. Different insurers will leverage their resource advantages to align with industrial and regional development plans, entering a new phase of differentiated business strategies.

China Re P&C forecasts that, guided by the "15th Five-Year Plan," the following insurance lines are expected to experience rapid growth:

• Technology insurance
• Energy & power insurance
• Policy-based catastrophe insurance
• Shipping insurance
• Health insurance
• Agricultural insurance and agriculture-related insurance

Key operational priorities for major insurance lines include:

• Auto insurance: Intelligent connected new energy vehicles will be a key focus, with new energy vehicle insurance remaining an important growth engine.
• Agricultural and agriculture-related insurance: A multi-tiered agricultural insurance system will be the priority.
• Corporate property and engineering insurance: The "six networks" of modern infrastructure will be the operational focus.

China Re P&C estimates that by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, annual premiums for property insurance companies will exceed RMB 2 trillion, with non-auto insurance accounting for more than half of total premiums. Additionally, as regulators continue to promote comprehensive governance of non-auto insurance, the combined ratio for non-auto insurance is expected to fall below 100%.

Wang Zhongyao, General Manager of China Re P&C, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the role of insurance and reinsurance must proactively shift from "capital protection" to "technology service." The industry's positioning must transform from "risk undertaker" to "value creator" embedded in national governance and serving the economy and people's livelihoods.

Zhu Xiaoyun, President of China Reinsurance Group, said that the next decade represents a critical strategic opportunity for China's insurance and reinsurance industries to transform, upgrade, and achieve high-quality development. As core players in the risk protection system, direct insurers and reinsurers should build a closer "risk-sharing, technology-co-developing, value-co-creating" direct-reinsurance relationship—promoting development through integration, driving momentum through innovation, and harnessing collective strength through platforms to embark on a new journey of high-quality development.