A-Share Market Shrinks Before Holiday; Shanghai Composite Falls Below 3,900 Points

On September 24, the market experienced a full-day volatile adjustment, with all three major indices opening lower and continuing to decline. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.34%, and the ChiNext Index lost 2.68%.

Market Overview

• Sector performance: Weak rotation among themes; Fujian local stocks saw a late-session surge. Robotics-related stocks, including Jixin Technology, showed activity alongside real estate and PCB sectors.
• Declining stocks: Over 4,300 stocks fell across the market.
• Trading volume: Total turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reached 1.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of 111.6 billion yuan from the previous session.

Pre-Holiday Trading Dynamics

This session marked the last trading day before the Mid-Autumn Festival. The A-share market continued the trend of shrinking volume and declining prices that began on Wednesday, with turnover further contracting to 1.6691 trillion yuan—returning to the year's "low volume" range.

Key observations:

• Over 4,300 individual stocks declined.
• The Shanghai Composite Index lost the 3,900-point mark, and other major indices also broke through key support levels to close lower.

Objectively speaking, the "pre-holiday effect" left the market relatively dull, with few worthwhile trading opportunities. However, compared with the consecutive low-volume sessions on September 14 and 15, the current market—as measured by the Wind All A Index—still shows some recovery gains (with higher candlestick bodies). This leaves both bullish and bearish investors uncertain about the outlook.

Historical Patterns for Pre-Holiday Trading

Looking ahead to the next week—the last three trading days before the National Day holiday—the "pre-holiday risk aversion" mindset may gradually give way to "post-holiday positioning," potentially making the market more optimistic than it is now.

Historical data supports this pattern. According to Wind data backtesting over the nine years from 2017 to 2025 (excluding 2024 data to avoid skewing averages), the All A Index shows a "decline first, then rise" bullish structure in the last three trading days before the holiday:

1. The third-to-last day is the "most dangerous": Excluding 2024's policy interference, only 2 out of 8 years saw gains (25%), with an average decline of 0.68% and a median of -0.48%. This is when pre-holiday risk aversion is most concentrated, volume contraction is most extreme, and funds aggressively reduce positions.

1. The last two days turn significantly bullish: The probability of gains rises to 62%, and the average return turns positive. This is not contradictory to low volume—when selling pressure is exhausted in a low-volume environment, even small buying orders (for post-holiday positioning and pre-holiday stabilization) can push indices slightly higher.

1. "The last day closes in the green" is a stable calendar feature: Over nine years, the last day rose six times (67%); excluding 2024, it was still 5 out of 8 (62%), with an average gain of +0.23%. The market tends to close positively on the final trading day before a long holiday.

Key Event: U.S.-China Meeting

From a news perspective, the most significant event this week—the ongoing U.S.-China meeting—is likely to become a key topic for weekend discussion.

According to a research report from Kaiyuan Securities, although U.S.-China relations have shifted from a "positive elasticity variable" to a "tail-risk variable" with limited impact on boosting overall A-share risk appetite, any concrete outcomes that change industry earnings expectations could create structural opportunities. If substantive changes occur in tariff negotiations, export-oriented industries with significant U.S. exposure—including light manufacturing, auto parts, and basic chemicals—could benefit.

Sector Highlights: Wind Power and Robotics

Stocks that showed strength against the market trend today included:

• Wind power equipment: Luozhou Co., Weili Transmission, and Jixin Technology showed connections to robotics and bearings, explaining their movement alongside robotics-related themes.

News catalyst: Elon Musk recently stated in an exclusive interview with CCTV Finance that humanoid robots could see significant global development over the next 15 years.

Analyst view: Orient Securities noted that Tesla's robot mass production and application are accelerating, creating investment opportunities for domestic robotics supply chain companies. 2026 is expected to become the first year of mass production for embodied intelligence, with本体 manufacturers' model capabilities and industry know-how rapidly improving, accelerating the commercialization process.

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all our readers!

(Source: National Business Daily)