Global Crude Tanker Index BDTI Surges Past 5,250, Up Over 5-Fold Year-to-Date

The U.S.-Iran conflict has severely disrupted global oil shipping routes, leading to rising costs from tanker diversions and other factors. Combined with historically low tanker supply, global oil shipping rates have surged throughout the year.

According to Wind data, as of September 24, 2026, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) had soared to 5,250 points—an increase of over 100% year-to-date and more than five times the level of approximately 850 points seen in early 2025. Notably, the majority of this year's gains have occurred in the past month alone.

CITIC Securities analysts noted that current freight rates have yet to fully reflect the tightness in supply and demand. They suggested that traditional shipping cycle supply-demand analysis frameworks need to be adapted accordingly, and forecast that valuations and profits for leading tanker companies could reach historic highs in 2026.

Soaring Stock Prices Alongside Shipping Rates

In early January 2025, the BDTI hovered at a low of around 800–850 points. It then trended upward gradually, rising from approximately 800 points at the start of 2025 to about 2,500 points by the end of the year.

After entering 2026, the U.S.-Iran conflict became the dominant factor driving global oil shipping rates. In the early stages of the conflict, a global rush to transport crude oil caused a sharp spike in large tanker rates. However, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the BDTI briefly fell to around 1,800 points. Since July, the index has risen steadily, with particularly sharp gains since September. Between September 1 and September 24, the BDTI climbed from 2,676 points to 5,250 points.

Against this backdrop of surging shipping rates, A-share listed companies in the oil transport sector have reported substantial profit growth. Key players such as COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping have recorded significant year-on-year increases in net profit.

• COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation reported first-half revenue of RMB 15.15 billion, up 30.0% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.545 billion, up 143.21%.
• China Merchants Energy Shipping reported first-half revenue of RMB 19.65 billion, up 56.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.96 billion, up 227.57%.

Breaking down the oil shipping segment, institutions estimate that China Merchants Energy Shipping's oil transport revenue in Q2 was approximately RMB 5.52 billion, up 139.2% year-on-year, with net profit of RMB 3.7 billion, up 359.5% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter.

Driven by strong earnings, the stock prices of these companies have also surged. COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation has risen 88% year-to-date, while China Merchants Energy Shipping has climbed over 136.75%, with its market capitalization repeatedly hitting new highs.

Further Upside Potential for Shipping Rates

As shipping rates continue to rise, analysts from leading institutions including CITIC Securities and Guotai Haitong remain optimistic.

In a recent research report, Guotai Haitong noted that over the past month, dark fleet crude oil shipments from the Middle East have grown steadily, with daily exports now reaching 14–16 million barrels per day—estimated at 80–90% of pre-conflict levels. Exports from the U.S. Gulf and West Africa have also increased by 10–20% year-on-year since August. Meanwhile, dark fleet ship-to-ship transfers and Red Sea diversions have led to significant efficiency losses in compliant shipping capacity.

Against this backdrop, improving supply-demand fundamentals and rising shipowner confidence have driven freight rates to record highs. VLCC TCE rates from the U.S. Gulf and West Africa have surged to $400,000–$530,000 per day. One-year VLCC time charter rates have risen to $180,000 per day, while five-year rates have exceeded $60,000 per day, reflecting medium-term optimism in the industry. Guotai Haitong stated that geopolitical factors are strengthening the medium- to long-term outlook for oil shipping, with the potential for sustained high景气 and an upside option from unexpected demand increases.

CITIC Securities also offered an optimistic assessment in a recent report: "While the market is focused on the sustainability of record-high freight rates and whether peak-season rates will rise further, we believe the core issue is the spiral of effective capacity loss and the squeeze on transport from cargo volume surges. Short-term freight rates still have room to rise further, and current rates have not yet fully reflected the tightness in supply and demand."

According to data from Clarksons, for the week ending September 18, 2026, average VLCC and Aframax TCE rates rose 42.3% and 18.5% week-on-week, reaching historic highs of $631,000 per day and $177,000 per day, respectively. VLCC TCE rates within the Gulf exceeded $1 million per day.

CITIC Securities believes that the spiral of effective capacity loss has become a critical marginal variable to monitor. Over 85% of cargo volumes in the Middle East are now routed through various forms of transshipment. Congestion at ports such as Fujairah and Egypt's Ain Sukhna is becoming increasingly pronounced, and stricter shipyard inspections are expected. The situation of "no ships available" could provide important support for further short-term rate increases.

CITIC Securities added that dark fleet operations, diversions, and Gulf STS transfers continue to consume effective capacity. The freight rate surge has spread from specific routes to broader vessel types. Against a backdrop of vessel shortages, million-dollar TCE rates have emerged, and crack spreads exceeding $100 per barrel for some products have intensified the scramble for cargo among commodity traders and Gulf producers. Post-holiday, cargo volumes for October–November are expected to be stronger than in September, and peak-season rate performance is likely to exceed expectations. The firm continues to recommend a paradigm shift in the oil shipping cycle.

(Source: Securities China)