Guangzhou Restaurant's mooncake revenue hits 1.652 billion yuan, stable for three consecutive years

Source: Salt Finance Author: Kuang Xiaoyi Editor: Li Hanzhang Visual: Nuoyan

The Price Trap: Buying Early Doesn't Pay

This Mid-Autumn Festival, Wang Lulu discovered that buying mooncakes too early can also mean losing money.

A fan of Maxim's molten egg custard mooncakes, she compared prices online before the holiday. Seeing most retailers offering the product at around 270 yuan, she considered it reasonable and placed an order. A few days later, while walking past a Hema store in the evening, she found the same gift box had dropped to 199 yuan.

Such price cuts are not uncommon. In the lead-up to this year's Mid-Autumn Festival, many supermarkets and e-commerce platforms rolled out discounts on mooncakes. Brands like Maxim's, Peninsula, and Wing Wah saw some products reduced to 70–90% of their original prices, with some deals becoming even cheaper after stacking coupons. On second-hand trading platforms, mooncake gift boxes from five-star hotels were also being resold at low prices.

Sellers Feel the Pinch

Those selling mooncakes feel the shift more directly.

An anonymous influencer带货博主 (livestreaming sales host) told Salt Finance that their e-commerce store's mooncake sales this year had dropped by 60% compared to last year. In previous years, mooncakes were relatively easy to sell as seasonal items as the festival approached. This year, consumers are noticeably more cautious.

Industry data confirms this trend. According to monitoring data from Kuaixiaopin.com, from August 14 to September 13 this year, mooncake sales at major retail stores fell by 45.17% year-on-year, while gift box sales dropped by 49.04%. Data from Qince Consumer Research shows that the share of gift boxes priced above 500 yuan in regular sales channels has fallen to less than 2%.

On social media, consumers' reasons are straightforward: some find mooncakes too sweet, others are concerned about calories, and many feel that since they only eat them once or twice a year, there's no need to spend extra on elaborate packaging.

Mooncakes, once primarily a vehicle for gift-giving and corporate benefits, are now increasingly forced to answer a more practical question: Are they tasty, and are they worth the price?

The Exception: Guangzhou Restaurant Group

While the overall market struggles, Guangzhou Restaurant Group (603043.SH) has not followed the downward trend.

In 2025, the company's mooncake revenue reached 1.652 billion yuan, maintaining a level of around 1.6 billion yuan for three consecutive years. In the first half of this year, its mooncake revenue grew by 43.75% year-on-year. By the end of July, its mooncake orders on hand had already exceeded 900 million yuan.

When mooncakes are becoming harder to sell and high-priced gift boxes are cooling down, how does this time-honored brand still manage to sell 1.6 billion yuan worth of mooncakes annually?

Premium Mooncakes Struggle, Heritage Brands Thrive

A clear change in this year's mooncake market is not whether consumers are still eating mooncakes, but what kind of mooncakes they are willing to spend money on.

Qince Consumer Research data shows that affordable gift boxes priced between 68 yuan and 200 yuan now account for over 60% of the market. Price points like 79 yuan, 99 yuan, and 139 yuan have become more common. Meanwhile, sales of loose, small-sized, and individually packaged mooncakes are also growing. On the other hand, the share of gift boxes priced above 500 yuan in regular channels has fallen to less than 2%, and sales of gift boxes priced above 1,000 yuan have dropped by 76% year-on-year.

Zhu Danpeng, a food industry analyst, told Salt Finance that the divergence in mooncake consumption this year is more pronounced: one category consists of products with more attractive prices, while the other includes products with new flavors, new concepts, or social buzz. In contrast, traditional gift boxes that are neither low-priced nor innovative face greater sales pressure.

Changing Consumption Scenarios

Behind the price changes, the consumption scenarios for mooncakes are also evolving.

For a long time, mooncakes were largely a gift business. Business exchanges, corporate benefits, and visiting friends and relatives were all important purchase scenarios. For gift-givers, the brand's prestige and the packaging's elegance often directly influenced how much they were willing to spend.

Now, this demand is shrinking.

According to data from iiMedia Research, when consumers buy mooncakes, the proportion for "sharing with family" is 55.9% , and for "personal consumption" is 50.4% , both higher than the 42.5% for "gift-giving."

When mooncakes are more often bought for home consumption, the questions consumers care about become simpler: Is it tasty? Can the whole box be finished? Is the price worth it?

Traditional mooncakes, known for being high in sugar, oil, and calories, are increasingly being rejected by consumers.

Qiuqiu from Beijing said she doesn't really like mooncakes. She finds traditional ones too sweet and greasy. If not for corporate benefits, she would hardly ever buy them. "I only eat them around this time of year, and I wouldn't buy a whole box myself."

Health concerns are also influencing consumer choices.

Zhu Danpeng noted that since around 2022, products labeled as low-sugar, low-fat, or small-sized have gained increasing attention. As consumers become more mindful of weight, nutrition, and ingredients, traditional high-sugar, high-oil mooncakes naturally face greater sales pressure.

Opportunity for Heritage Brands

But consumers becoming more discerning has actually created an opportunity for time-honored brands like Guangzhou Restaurant Group.

Mooncakes are a typical low-frequency consumer good. Ordinary consumers buy them only once or twice a year and rarely research different brands extensively for just a few boxes.

When the price gap isn't huge, familiar brands and consistent flavors remain important factors in consumer decision-making.

This is one reason why Guangzhou Restaurant Group can retain a portion of its consumers.

Xu Xiongjun, an industry analyst, told Salt Finance that Guangzhou Restaurant Group's ability to maintain around 1.6 billion yuan in mooncake revenue stems from its long-established brand recognition in the Cantonese-style mooncake segment, as well as its raw material control, peak-season delivery capacity, and relatively decentralized channel structure.

In the mainstream price range of 80 yuan to 200 yuan, consumers care about price but are also unwilling to bear high trial-and-error costs.

"As consumption becomes more rational, market share will further concentrate on heritage and leading brands," Xu Xiongjun said.

So, the difficulty today is not about "selling mooncakes" per se, but about the previous growth model that relied on high-priced gift boxes and gift-giving demand.

Capacity: The Engine Behind the Sales

Brand recognition explains why consumers are willing to buy Guangzhou Restaurant Group's mooncakes, but selling 1.6 billion yuan worth annually requires solving another problem: Can the concentrated orders before Mid-Autumn Festival be produced and delivered on time?

Mooncakes are a highly seasonal business.

Most orders are concentrated in the period leading up to the festival. Companies need to complete filling production, baking, packaging, quality inspection, and distribution within a limited time. Producing too early eats into the shelf life; producing too late risks missing the sales window.

Xu Xiongjun told Salt Finance that for mooncake companies, the real test of supply chain capability is not whether they have their own factories, but whether they can guarantee output and maintain product quality stability during the peak order period.

At the same time, mooncakes cannot be overproduced.

Xu Xiongjun explained that unlike ordinary food, mooncake sales are highly concentrated before the festival. Once the holiday ends, remaining inventory often needs to be quickly discounted, which can also affect channel pricing. Therefore, calculating how much to produce, when to produce, and when to replenish are all critical decisions.

This is why Guangzhou Restaurant Group has been continuously increasing its food production capacity in recent years.

Unlike some seasonal food companies that rely on commissioned processing to boost peak-season capacity, Guangzhou Restaurant Group emphasizes control over core production processes. In the industry, many companies supplement capacity through OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), but this also increases the need for quality control over production partners.

In 2025, a mooncake product from Lai Yifen, produced by Wufangzhai, drew attention due to consumer complaints about foreign objects. Wufangzhai's annual report also disclosed that some of its mooncakes and pastries are produced through commissioned processing.

Guangzhou Restaurant Group, in contrast, has been steadily increasing the automation level of its own production lines. Currently, the automation rate of its mooncake production lines has reached 80%. From robotic arms applying egg wash and tunnel ovens for baking, to metal detection, AI visual inspection, and intelligent palletizing, more and more processes are automated.

In terms of capacity utilization, these production lines are already operating at high load during peak season.

From 2023 to 2025, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate for Guangzhou Restaurant Group's relevant fundraising categories was 92.97% , 97.13% , and 96.15% , respectively. In 2025, the company's mooncake production-to-sales ratio reached 99.04% .

Beyond meeting its own brand's production needs, this capacity is now also taking on external orders.

This year, some of Pang Donglai's private-label mooncakes were produced by Guangzhou Restaurant Group's subsidiary, Likofu.

Guangzhou Restaurant Group responded that OEM business still accounts for a small proportion of its mooncake operations, but cooperation with external brands also helps the company expand into markets outside Guangdong.

Zhu Danpeng stated that scale, brand, and supply chain completeness are key factors determining a mooncake company's sustainable development. Mooncakes are a typical "reunion economy" product with high gross margins, which is why some mooncake companies can survive and develop on the strength of just one Mid-Autumn Festival peak season.

For Guangzhou Restaurant Group, the 1.6 billion yuan in mooncake revenue comes not only from years of accumulated brand recognition but also from its production, capacity, and channel capabilities.

However, this capability also raises another question: With mooncake revenue having stagnated at around 1.6 billion yuan for three consecutive years, where can Guangzhou Restaurant Group find new growth?

Beyond 1.6 Billion: What Else Can Guangzhou Restaurant Group Sell?

Today, Guangzhou Restaurant Group's revenue no longer comes solely from mooncakes.

In addition to mooncakes, the company operates in catering, frozen foods, and other food products such as preserved meats, pastries, and pot dishes. In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of approximately 5.3 billion yuan, of which mooncake revenue was 1.652 billion yuan, catering revenue was 1.539 billion yuan, frozen food revenue was 1.057 billion yuan, and other food revenue was 1.045 billion yuan.

In terms of revenue scale, the major business segments are relatively balanced. However, looking at gross margins, mooncakes remain the company's most profitable business.

In 2025, Guangzhou Restaurant Group's mooncake gross margin was 53.3% , significantly higher than frozen foods at 27.5% and catering at 14.3% .

Xu Xiongjun describes the company's current business structure as "revenue is relatively balanced, but profit still relies on mooncakes." In his view, catering serves the functions of brand display and consumer experience, frozen foods can increase daily consumption frequency, and mooncakes, due to their high gross margin, still contribute the most profit.

"If profit is long-term dependent on a single seasonal product, the ability to withstand economic cycles is relatively weak," Xu Xiongjun said. While there is synergy between catering, mooncakes, and frozen foods in terms of brand, channels, and supply chain, in the short term, other businesses will find it difficult to replace mooncakes as the profit pillar.

Moreover, mooncake growth itself has begun to slow.

From 2023 to 2025, Guangzhou Restaurant Group's mooncake revenue was 1.669 billion yuan, 1.636 billion yuan, and 1.652 billion yuan, respectively. Staying around 1.6 billion yuan for three consecutive years indicates that the business is stable overall, but significant further growth is becoming increasingly difficult.

New Opportunities: Low-Sugar, Pet Mooncakes, and Cultural Products

Of course, while the overall mooncake market is shrinking, opportunities still exist.

This Mid-Autumn Festival, products like low-sugar and low-GI (glycemic index) mooncakes attracted considerable consumer attention.

Some related products at Sam's Club were temporarily out of stock, including a low-GI mooncake gift box priced at 258 yuan, produced by Guangzhou Restaurant Group's Likofu subsidiary.

Additionally, a box of pet mooncakes priced at 69.9 yuan also made it onto the out-of-stock list.

Wenwen bought a box of Hema's pet mooncakes for her dog this Mid-Autumn Festival for 9.9 yuan. Previously, during the Chinese New Year, she also bought a pet New Year's Eve dinner series for her dog. In Wenwen's view, her dog is a family member, and of course, they should celebrate the holiday together. This was her core reason for purchasing pet mooncakes.

Zhu Danpeng is also optimistic about the development of cultural creative mooncakes. He believes they can help mooncake companies increase differentiation and offer consumers options beyond traditional flavors.

Guangzhou Restaurant Group is also adding similar products. Low-sugar, low-GI, small-sized, new flavors, and cultural collaborations are all directions the company has been exploring in recent years.

However, these products still primarily address consumption demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival. For Guangzhou Restaurant Group, the more important question is: besides mooncakes, which are sold intensively once a year, what other products can be sold year-round?

Frozen Foods: The Next Growth Engine

Frozen foods have already become one such important business.

In 2025, Guangzhou Restaurant Group's frozen food revenue reached 1.057 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 20% of the company's total revenue. In the first half of this year, frozen food revenue further reached 593 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.66% .

Compared to mooncakes, whose sales are highly concentrated before Mid-Autumn Festival, frozen dim sum items like shrimp dumplings, siu mai, and walnut buns can be sold all year round, and consumers purchase them more frequently.

More importantly, this is still a familiar business for Guangzhou Restaurant Group.

From morning tea in a restaurant to shrimp dumplings in a supermarket freezer, it essentially involves replicating the company's accumulated R&D capabilities in Cantonese cuisine and dim sum through industrial production into more consumption scenarios.

Zhu Danpeng believes that Guangzhou Restaurant Group has been steadily laying out its frozen food business, and the next area worth watching is prepared dishes (pre-made meals). As relevant industry standards gradually improve, this will support the company's catering and food manufacturing businesses. In his view, expanding outward and laying out a national market will be an important path for Guangzhou Restaurant Group to break through its own development ceiling.

Expanding Beyond Guangdong

Markets outside Guangdong have also become a direction for Guangzhou Restaurant Group's continued expansion.

In 2025, the company's food manufacturing business achieved revenue of 1.093 billion yuan outside Guangdong Province, a year-on-year increase of 9.37% , outpacing the 3.93% growth within the province.

However, as it enters more markets outside the province, Guangzhou Restaurant Group will face more direct competition.

In Guangdong, the company already enjoys high brand recognition. Entering the national frozen food market, it will need to compete with established players like Sanquan and Anjoy.

Brand recognition, cold chain costs, channel coverage, and the ability of products to adapt to the tastes of consumers in different regions will all affect the growth rate of this business.

Furthermore, the profitability of frozen foods is still significantly lower than that of mooncakes.

In 2025, Guangzhou Restaurant Group's frozen food revenue exceeded 1 billion yuan, but its gross margin was only 27.5% , still far behind mooncakes' 53.3% .

This is the most critical issue in Guangzhou Restaurant Group's current business structure: mooncakes are still the most profitable, but their growth has stabilized; frozen foods and other businesses still have room for growth, but they have not yet reached the profit level of mooncakes.

The Core Question: What to Sell Beyond Mid-Autumn?

For Guangzhou Restaurant Group, the question it needs to answer is no longer just how many more mooncakes it can sell each Mid-Autumn Festival.

After all, there is only one Mid-Autumn Festival a year. Mooncakes can continue to secure profits, but for a time-honored brand to continue growing, it must ultimately answer another question:

What can it sell for the remaining 300-plus days of the year?

Can it build another sufficiently large business beyond the festival season?

(At the request of the interviewees, Wang Lulu and Wenwen are pseudonyms.)