China Re P&C: P&C insurance industry shifts from scale to profitability, premiums may exceed 2 trillion yuan by end of '15th Five-Year'

The extensive, "scale-over-profit" development model in China's domestic property insurance industry has been fundamentally reversed, with the sector now demonstrating sound high-quality growth. Global reinsurance premium rates remain adequate.

On September 23, the 2026 China Property Reinsurance Market Symposium was held under the theme "Direct-Reinsurance Integration Drives Innovation, Win-Win for the '15th Five-Year' Transformation." The symposium reviewed the development of the property insurance industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021–2025) and outlined prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026–2030), noting broad development prospects and anticipating high growth in areas such as technology insurance and energy & power insurance.

Extensive "Scale-over-Profit" Development Fundamentally Reversed

According to data, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual compound growth rate of premiums in China's property insurance industry was 5.3%, a slowdown compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. However, the industry's overall combined ratio and expense ratio declined significantly, marking a fundamental reversal of the extensive "scale-over-profit" development model.

China Re Property & Casualty noted that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the property insurance industry achieved overall underwriting profitability, reversing the underwriting losses seen during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.

This overall underwriting profitability was largely driven by improved performance in auto insurance. Data shows that, in addition to underwriting profits from leading insurers, small and medium-sized insurers also achieved underwriting profitability in their auto insurance businesses overall. Meanwhile, the structure of auto insurance claims and expenses improved, with expense ratios declining and loss ratios rising.

In terms of business structure, the share of non-auto insurance premiums has increased year by year. In 2025, non-auto insurance accounted for 46.4% of total premiums, up more than 7 percentage points from 39.3% in 2020. Within non-auto insurance, underwriting performance has varied across different lines in recent years. Agricultural insurance and accident & health insurance have achieved underwriting profits, while liability insurance, corporate property & engineering insurance, credit & surety insurance, and marine cargo & special risk insurance have experienced underwriting losses in certain years.

In China's property reinsurance market, premiums ceded to reinsurance have maintained steady growth. In 2025, the reinsurance cession ratio for major non-auto lines—including property & engineering, marine, liability, credit, and health insurance—increased. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the overall property reinsurance cession ratio exceeded 10%, continuing to rise from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.

At the same time, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, regulators guided the insurance and reinsurance industries to play the role of "two instruments and three networks," shifting insurance services from "post-loss compensation" to "pre-loss prevention," balancing coverage expansion with risk reduction, and effectively serving the real economy.

Wang Simiao, Chief Officer of the Insurance Association of China, stated that in recent years, China's property insurance industry has maintained a steady development trend. In particular, since the release of the new "National Ten Articles," the industry's direction toward returning to the core function of risk protection has become clearer, and the quality and efficiency of serving the real economy and people's livelihoods have continuously improved.

Severe El Niño Events Heighten Loss Expectations

Regarding risk trends, China Re Property & Casualty analyzed that since 2026, losses from typhoons and geological disasters have intensified, and safety accidents in certain regions and industries have become more frequent, putting pressure on industry underwriting profits.

Looking ahead, the property insurance industry must remain vigilant about climate risks from severe El Niño events, geopolitical risks from economic confrontation, and systemic risks from the explosive development of AI applications. Given expectations of higher loss volatility, reinsurance companies are expected to continue strengthening risk controls to address potential loss fluctuations.

In the international reinsurance market, China Re Property & Casualty noted that in 2026, the global reinsurance market continues to grow. Influenced by factors such as the U.S.-Iran conflict and severe El Niño events, the downward trend in reinsurance premium rates varies across lines, but overall rates remain adequate.

Broad Prospects for Property Insurance in the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period

As the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period begins, the symposium also focused on the industry's development trends over the next five years.

China Re Property & Casualty believes that the property insurance industry has broad development prospects during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. National economic and social development plans—including industrial, special, and regional plans—point to new directions for innovative development in the property insurance industry. Meanwhile, comprehensive governance of non-auto insurance is driving the establishment of a standardized, professional, and refined market system, ushering in a new cycle of high-quality development. Different insurers will focus on their resource endowments, align with industrial and regional development plans, and enter a new phase of differentiated business operations.

China Re Property & Casualty expects that, guided by the "15th Five-Year Plan," lines such as technology insurance, energy & power insurance, policy-based catastrophe insurance, shipping insurance, health insurance, agricultural insurance, and agriculture-related insurance are likely to see rapid growth.

Key operational priorities for major lines include:

• Auto insurance: Intelligent connected new energy vehicles will be a key focus, with new energy vehicle insurance remaining an important growth engine.
• Agricultural and agriculture-related insurance: A multi-tiered agricultural insurance system will be the priority.
• Corporate property and engineering insurance: The "six networks" of modern infrastructure will be the operational focus.

China Re Property & Casualty projects that by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, annual premiums for property insurance companies will exceed RMB 2 trillion, with non-auto insurance accounting for more than half of total premiums. At the same time, as regulators continue to promote comprehensive governance of non-auto insurance, the combined ratio for non-auto insurance is expected to fall below 100%.

Wang Zhongyao, General Manager of China Re Property & Casualty, stated that looking toward the "15th Five-Year Plan," the role of the insurance and reinsurance industries needs to actively shift from "capital protection" to "technical service," and the industry's positioning needs to transform from "risk undertaker" to "value creator" embedded in national governance and serving the economy and people's livelihoods.

Zhu Xiaoyun, President of China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation, stated that the next decade represents a critical strategic opportunity for China's insurance and reinsurance industries to transform, upgrade, and achieve high-quality development. As core entities in the risk protection system, direct insurers and reinsurers should build a closer "risk-sharing, technology-co-developing, value-co-creating" direct-reinsurance relationship, promoting development through integration, driving momentum through innovation, and pooling strength through platforms to embark on a new journey of high-quality development.