German institutes raise 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% on stronger H1
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Several leading German economic research institutes have more than doubled their joint forecast for Germany's 2026 GDP growth to 1.3%, up from a spring prediction of 0.6%, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year. The institutes also raised their 2027 growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9%, but expect growth to slow to 0.4% in 2028. The upward revision for 2026 is attributed to robust exports, manufacturing output, and large-scale public spending, which together offset persistent weakness in investment and consumption. Global demand and the AI industry boom are noted as counterweights to domestic softness. The institutes predict that the recovery will continue into 2027, driven by consumption and housing, but warn that growth momentum will fade by 2028 as a shrinking labor force and declining potential output constrain the economy.
Source report
According to foreign media reports, several leading German economic research institutes have more than doubled their joint growth forecast for the current year, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year. However, the institutes caution that the overall recovery remains moderate.
In a report released on Thursday, the institutes forecast Germany's GDP growth at 1.3% for 2026, up from the 0.6% projected in the spring. The 2027 growth forecast has been raised from 0.9% to 1.1%, while growth in 2028 is expected to slow to 0.4%.
Key Drivers of H1 Performance
- Exports, manufacturing, and large-scale public spending were the primary drivers behind Germany's better-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year.
- Strong global demand and the boom in the AI industry helped offset weakness in investment and consumption.
Outlook for 2027–2028
- In 2027, the economic recovery is expected to continue, supported by the consumer and housing sectors.
- By 2028, growth momentum is projected to fade, as a shrinking labor force and a decline in potential economic growth will continue to constrain output levels.
Source
金吾资讯Neutral / independent