A-share market falls on shrinking volume, Shanghai Composite loses 3,900 points

Market Overview

On September 24, the A-share market experienced a full-day volatile adjustment, with all three major indices opening lower and continuing to decline. By the close:

• Shanghai Composite Index: Fell 1.22%
• Shenzhen Component Index: Dropped 2.34%
• ChiNext Index: Declined 2.68%

Sector Performance

Gainers:

• Fujian local stocks saw late-session volatility and gains
• Robotics concept stocks showed counter-trend activity
• Wind power stock Jixun Technology hit the daily limit up

Losers:

• Real estate sector experienced volatile adjustments
• PCB concept stocks weakened

Trading Data

• Over 4,300 stocks declined across the market
• Total trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reached 1.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of 111.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day

Pre-Holiday Trading Dynamics

As the last trading day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the A-share market continued the shrinking-volume decline trend that began on Wednesday. Trading volume further contracted to 1.6691 trillion yuan, returning to the year's "low-volume" range.

The Shanghai Composite Index lost the 3,900-point mark, while other major indices also broke support levels and closed lower.

The "Pre-Holiday Effect"

Objectively speaking, the market under the "pre-holiday effect" was relatively dull, with few worthwhile trading opportunities. However, compared to the consecutive low-volume days of September 14 and 15, the market has shown some rebound effect (higher K-line entities), leaving both bullish and bearish investors uncertain.

Looking ahead to next week—the last three trading days before the National Day holiday—the "pre-holiday risk aversion" mindset may gradually shift to "post-holiday positioning," potentially making the market more optimistic than it is now.

Historical Data Support

According to Wind data backtesting over the nine years from 2017 to 2025 (excluding 2024 data to avoid skewing averages), the Wind All-A Index showed a "first down, then up" bullish structure in the last three trading days before the holiday:

1. Third-to-last day (most dangerous): Excluding 2024 policy interference, only 2 out of 8 years saw gains (25%), with an average decline of 0.68% and a median of -0.48%. This is when pre-holiday risk aversion is most concentrated and volume contraction is most extreme.

1. Last two days (turning positive): The probability of gains rises to 62%, with average returns turning from negative to positive. This is not contradictory to low volume—when selling pressure is exhausted, even small buying volumes (post-holiday positioning + pre-holiday stabilization) can push indices slightly higher.

1. Last day (stable calendar feature): The last day closed higher in 6 out of 9 years (67%), or 5 out of 8 years (62%) excluding 2024, with an average gain of +0.23%. The market tends to end the last trading day before a long holiday in positive territory.

Key Event: China-U.S. Meeting

The most significant event this week—the China-U.S. meeting—is ongoing and will likely become a key topic for weekend discussion.

According to a research report from Kaiyuan Securities, while China-U.S. relations have shifted from a "positive elasticity variable" to a "tail-risk variable" with limited impact on overall A-share risk appetite, any outcome that changes industry earnings expectations could present structural opportunities. Substantive changes in tariff negotiations would benefit export-oriented industries with large U.S. exposure, including:

• Light manufacturing
• Auto parts
• Basic chemicals

Sector Spotlight: Robotics

Aside from defensive sectors like banking and coal, only the robotics concept showed relative counter-trend strength, and even then, only with localized activity.

According to Flush data, while the "wind power equipment" sector showed larger gains, the top three components—Luozhou Shares, Weili Transmission, and Jixun Technology—are related to robotics and bearings, suggesting the movement is linked to the robotics theme.

News Catalyst

Elon Musk, in a recent exclusive interview with CCTV Finance, stated that global humanoid robots could reach 10 billion units in the next 15 years and 100 billion units in the next 20 years.

Analyst View

Orient Securities believes that Tesla's substantive push for robot mass production and Figure's new model will accelerate the application of robot mass production, creating investment opportunities for domestic robotics supply chain companies. The firm expects 2026 to become the first year of mass production for embodied intelligence, with本体 manufacturers' model capabilities and industry know-how accelerating, driving breakthroughs in commercialization.

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all readers!

Disclaimer: Investment involves risk. Independent judgment is essential. This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for buying or selling. Market entry risks are borne by the individual.

Cover image source: Trading software screenshot

Reported by Xiao Ruidong, Edited by Zhao Yun

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