Apple's foldable iPhone Duo faces yield rate issues; scalper pre-order prices exceed 100,000 yuan

Source: Times Weekly

As the launch of the iPhone Duo approaches, production capacity remains below expectations.

Reports indicate that while the iPhone Duo has been officially announced, it still faces significant hurdles before reaching consumers. Contract manufacturers have reportedly asked Apple to choose between prioritizing yield rate or production capacity. According to a previous report by The Interface, Foxconn's assembly yield rate for the iPhone Duo is only around 60%, resulting in limited initial output. Under Apple's current quality standards, it may take six months to a year for the overall yield rate to reach maturity.

Industry Insights on Production Hurdles

A supply chain source told Times Weekly that new-generation technologies inevitably encounter such challenges. Beyond final assembly, core components—including the hinge—are also facing low yield rates and delivery delays, slowing overall progress. However, the low yield rate is not entirely due to unresolved technical issues. Rather, as this is Apple's first mass production of a foldable phone, the production line still requires repeated adjustments to equipment, processes, and parameters during actual operation.

"The fact that it was launched means the major hurdles have been cleared. What's missing is time," the source said.

Ivan Lam, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, agreed that the iPhone Duo's early production ramp-up difficulties are primarily due to yield rate constraints. The new product form presents greater challenges across Apple's entire production chain, including the yield rates of key components. The initial production ramp-up is expected to be more difficult than previous models.

"Production should become smoother by the end of the year or in January or February next year," Lam told Times Weekly.

Multiple Technical Challenges Impacting Mass Production

The market has high expectations for Apple's foldable phone. The iPhone Duo has made significant efforts to eliminate the sense of disconnection when switching between the outer screen, inner screen, and different postures, aiming to make users forget they are using a foldable device.

The iPhone Duo not only uses a unified display ratio for both screens, allowing iOS 27 to automatically adjust the interface when opening, closing, or rotating, but also achieves smooth transitions through animation effects. Apple has also invested heavily in addressing screen crease issues to minimize user experience disruption.

To this end, the iPhone Duo's inner screen uses a custom nano-textured UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass) with enhanced flexibility to reduce crease visibility. However, UTG technology is extremely challenging. The glass thickness typically needs to be controlled between 30μm and 100μm. Thinner glass is more brittle, making it difficult to balance thinness with impact and bending resistance. A delicate balance between "thin" and "strong" must be achieved.

Apple supply chain company Lens Technology (300433.SZ) noted during its first-half 2026 earnings call that for its main business, the company supplies UTG glass, CPI film, UTG glass support plates, and 3D glass covers for the major client's foldable project this year. These products are difficult to process and have significantly increased in value.

The hinge is also considered a key bottleneck for iPhone Duo mass production. To minimize creasing and enable free-stop at any angle, the iPhone Duo's hinge is extremely complex. Apple claims this key module consists of over 100 components, controlling opening and closing while supporting the center of the screen. The hinge cover uses a 3D-printed structure and incorporates titanium plates and ceramic fiber inserts to improve rigidity. However, the complex structural design increases the difficulty of hinge module assembly, limiting both capacity and yield rate.

Beyond key components like UTG glass and the hinge, the assembly of the foldable screen itself presents significant technical challenges. The tolerance between the screen, hinge, and body must be controlled within a very narrow range. Otherwise, it could result in deeper creases, inconsistent opening/closing resistance, local screen depression, or even reduced lifespan.

These multiple technical challenges collectively hinder the iPhone Duo's mass production schedule. A September 3 research report from Mizuho Securities indicated that hinge specifications and screen crease issues are delaying Apple's foldable phone mass production. Apple needs to balance quality standards to advance full-scale production.

Demand Expected to Remain Strong Through Year-End

Due to production delays, many institutions have lowered their shipment forecasts for the iPhone Duo.

Earlier predictions suggested Apple had requested approximately 10 million units of foldable phones from its supply chain. However, industry insiders now generally believe final shipments may fall short of this number.

TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released an industry survey indicating that foldable iPhone assembly shipments in the second half of 2026 would be 7 million to 8 million units, with Q3 shipments of 500,000 to 1 million units.

In comparison, estimated shipments for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max in Q3 are 20 million to 22 million units, significantly higher than the foldable model.

Counterpoint Research also predicts that the initial production ramp-up for Apple's foldable phone will be more constrained by supply than demand. Given limited initial output, sales and delivery may not immediately reach full scale after launch. As a result, Apple's foldable iPhone shipments in 2026 could reach up to 6 million units, giving it a 25% global market share and ranking second, behind Samsung's 38%.

However, Ivan Lam believes the iPhone Duo's difficult production ramp-up is understandable. "Some previous Pro series models also experienced production issues and only became smoother toward the end of the year," he said.

Ming-Chi Kuo similarly noted that similar production issues occurred with the iPhone X, launched in 2017. That product was the first iPhone with an all-screen OLED design and introduced the notch design and Face ID camera system. New technologies increased the manufacturing difficulty of the iPhone X, with estimated Q3 2017 shipments below 1 million units. The situation only improved in late November, with total shipments of about 30 million units in the second half of 2017.

"In comparison, the lower shipments of the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026 are likely due to both higher unit prices and greater manufacturing difficulty," Kuo said.

Given the iPhone Duo's highly distinctive appearance and innovative user experience, Kuo believes demand for Apple's foldable phone will remain strong at least through the end of 2026. This means the product could sell out immediately after pre-orders open, with delivery wait times quickly extending to 4 to 6 weeks or even longer.

"These characteristics are favorable for scalpers to drive up resale prices in the short term. It's not impossible for resale prices to be 50% to 100% higher than the official price," Kuo added.

On September 24, a Times Weekly reporter found that some merchants on second-hand trading platforms like Xianyu had already listed iPhone Duo pre-order assistance services, with the highest price exceeding 100,000 yuan.

Reported by Xie Silin, Zhao Peng | Edited by Guo Ruyi | Operations by Ke

(Source: Times Weekly)