Second-hand home prices in multiple Shanghai districts rise notably, up 8%-20% in some areas

Shanghai's frontline real estate agents are reporting a significant shift in the second-hand housing market, with prices rising steadily and bargaining room shrinking sharply compared to earlier this year.

From 15% Discounts to Almost None

Zhang Shaojun, a senior agent with Lianjia in Shanghai's East Bund area, recalled a scene from early this year when a buyer and seller sat down face-to-face to negotiate.

"The buyer opened with a 15% price cut, and the seller eventually accepted," Zhang said. But in recent months, he noted, such bargaining power has all but disappeared. "Now, even a 5% discount is considered good."

Shi Bing, another veteran agent covering the Shanghai West Railway Station area, added: "After the Spring Festival, it was common to negotiate a discount of around 100,000 to 200,000 yuan on a total price of just over 1 million yuan for older, smaller properties. Now, not only have listing prices risen, but the room for negotiation has nearly vanished."

Official data confirms these on-the-ground observations. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, second-hand home prices in Shanghai have risen month-on-month for seven consecutive months, from February to August.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities described the current market as a "weak recovery with strong differentiation," noting that first-tier cities are leading the recovery, with Shanghai's second-hand housing price rebound being particularly notable.

'A Broad-Based Price Increase Has Arrived'

"The low-priced properties we saw at the beginning of the year are now completely gone," said Zhang Shaojun, now store manager at Lianjia's East Bund branch. He identified the absorption of low-priced inventory as one of the most obvious changes in the recent market.

The East Bund area, located along the Yangpu riverside, is one of the few contiguous development zones within Shanghai's inner ring. With major projects like Meituan's Shanghai Tech Center and Bilibili's headquarters landing in the area, demand has been rising.

According to Zhang, property prices in the East Bund hit a low point between late last year and early this year, stabilized thereafter, began a slow recovery after the Spring Festival, and entered a more pronounced upward trend in the third quarter.

Specific data from the area shows:

• Old public housing: From 35,000–40,000 yuan/sq m at the start of the year to over 45,000 yuan/sq m now
• Second-hand newer developments: From around 80,000 yuan/sq m at the low point to approximately 90,000 yuan/sq m currently

"This is a broad-based increase. Old public housing, newer second-hand homes, and properties near metro stations have all seen price gains of between 8% and 20%," Zhang said.

He also noted a shift in buyer demographics, with more professionals from the software and finance sectors, aged 35–45, purchasing homes primarily for upgrading and replacement needs.

Similar trends are playing out in Shanghai's Putuo District, near the West Railway Station.

Shi Bing, store manager at Lianjia's Shanghai West Station branch, said property prices in his area also bottomed out early this year, began rising slowly after March, and accelerated in July.

"July is usually the peak of summer heat, and we typically see fewer buyers. It's normally a slow season for second-hand homes. But this year, the actual situation far exceeded expectations," Shi said.

The West Station area is dominated by older properties built in the 1980s and 1990s, with relatively low total prices and no outstanding school district advantages. It has long been considered a "price洼地" (low-price area) within the city.

Shi provided specific examples:

• Early this year: A 50-square-meter, mid-floor, walk-up apartment sold for around 1.8–1.9 million yuan
• Recently: Similar units are selling for 2.0–2.2 million yuan, an increase of 200,000–300,000 yuan
• Unit price: Rose from 35,000–38,000 yuan/sq m to over 40,000 yuan/sq m

Supply Tightens as Listings Shrink

The most dramatic change, according to Shi, has been on the supply side. After the Spring Festival, the number of new Shanghai residents and first-time homebuyers visiting properties and completing transactions increased significantly. Some neighborhoods are now seeing "one sold, one less available."

"In the communities we manage, there used to be an average of over 40 listings per neighborhood. Now, there are only about 15 left. There are fewer and fewer homes for clients to see," Shi said.

This supply shortage explains why transaction volumes have actually declined in August and September, he added. "It's not that demand has disappeared. It's that the number of available properties has shrunk."

"Before, it was 'homes looking for buyers.' Now, it's 'buyers looking for homes.' Our current focus is on expanding our listing inventory," Shi said.

According to Lianjia, other Shanghai districts showing notable price increases include Hongkou's North Bund, Putuo's Wanli, Xuhui's Changqiao, Huangpu's Dongjiadu, and Changning's Hongqiao.

Policy Confidence and Market Sentiment

Zhang Shaojun attributed the recent price and negotiation dynamics to improved policy expectations.

"What the real estate market has lacked most in recent years is confidence. Previously, some owners were eager to sell and cut prices because they believed the market would continue to fall. They preferred to sell quickly," Zhang said. "After the Spring Festival this year, the market became more stable, and both owners and buyers have clearly regained confidence."

Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies twice this year:

• February: Relaxed home purchase restrictions for non-Shanghai residents, reducing the required social security or tax payment period for buying homes inside the outer ring to one continuous year. Also raised the maximum housing provident fund loan limit.

• August: Further relaxed provident fund withdrawal policies, reduced the minimum down payment for second homes outside the outer ring from 20% to 15%, and introduced "trade-in" purchase subsidies, housing ticket resettlement, and policies to promote the acquisition of second-hand homes.

These measures have lowered financial and eligibility barriers for buyers and improved market expectations.

From March to June, Shanghai's second-hand market experienced active transactions and gradual price stabilization. As low-priced inventory was absorbed, sellers began adjusting their asking prices.

Zhang described a typical price transmission process: "If a similar unit sold for 5 million yuan, the next seller might try listing at 5.1 million. If it sells quickly, the next seller might raise the price further. That's how prices gradually rise."

For the West Station area, Shi believes changes in the composition of available properties are another key factor.

"On one hand, the good layouts and floors have already been sold. On the other hand, our main customer base is first-time buyers, and this year's policies have been quite supportive of that group," he said.

Lower down payment ratios, provident fund policies, and commercial mortgage rates have collectively reduced the financial burden on some first-time buyers. "Now, with a down payment of just over 300,000 yuan, you can buy a home. That has a noticeable impact on first-time buyers," Shi said.

In the East Bund area, Zhang also highlighted changes in rental yields and industrial development.

"Rents in our area are currently stable, and owners have relatively high expectations for future rental income," he said. As industrial projects along the Yangpu riverside come online, an increase in the local workforce could further support housing demand.

However, Zhang cautioned that the current price increase is not driven by any single factor but is the result of a combination of policy, demand, property mix, and market expectations.

Shanghai Leads, Other Cities Expected to Follow

The trends observed at the brokerage level are corroborated by official data.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai's second-hand residential property prices rose month-on-month by:

• February: +0.2%
• March: +0.4%
• April: +0.7%
• May: +0.6%
• June: +0.4%
• July: +0.3%
• August: +0.3%

This marks seven consecutive months of month-on-month increases. Meanwhile, the year-on-year decline narrowed from 6.2% in March to just 0.8% in August, indicating a significant price recovery.

This trend continued into September. According to online real estate data, Shanghai recorded 1,495 second-hand property (including commercial) transactions on September 19 alone, the highest single-day total since the second half of 2026. As of September 19, total September transactions reached 15,597, up 28% year-on-year.

Lianjia's platform data also shows rising demand. From September 1 to 19, property viewing appointments increased by 13.4% compared to the same period in August, while client inquiries rose by 5.4%.

From a policy perspective, the "828" policy package is seen as a watershed moment for the real estate industry. Moving forward, second-hand housing transactions are expected to play an increasingly prominent role.

At the 16th Real Estate Brand Development Summit Forum, Zhang Qiguang, Vice President and Secretary-General of the China Real Estate Industry Association, noted that the market's stock characteristics are now firmly established. Second-hand home transactions now account for 52% of total transactions, making inventory revitalization—rather than new construction—the main development theme.

Zhu Jin, Chief Analyst of Real Estate, Construction, and REITs at CITIC Construction Investment Securities, believes that policy effects are gradually materializing. China's real estate market is currently in a "weak recovery with strong differentiation." First-tier cities have seen transaction volumes stabilize first, with second-hand home prices rising in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Shanghai has been the most stable, with both new and second-hand homes destocking simultaneously, a sales-to-supply ratio greater than 1, and rents stabilizing and rising.

Zhu described Shanghai's recovery as "K-shaped," with the low-price segment seeing the largest gains, and price increases spreading to higher price brackets since April and May.

He assessed that Shanghai has already stabilized and recovered, with Shenzhen, Beijing, and Guangzhou likely to follow in sequence.

Drawing on international experience, Zhu noted that in past real estate cycles, leading cities typically stabilize first, followed by other cities. For example, the U.S. West Coast housing market stabilized in 2009, while the East Coast did not bottom out until 2012—a three-year gap. In China's case, leading cities like Shanghai are expected to lead the national stabilization and recovery, with upward momentum exceeding the national average.

(Source: Yicai)