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German Leading Institutes Raise 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.3%
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Several leading German economic research institutes have more than doubled their joint growth forecast for Germany in 2026, raising it to 1.3% from a previous spring prediction of 0.6%, according to a statement released on Thursday. The upward revision follows better-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year, driven primarily by exports, manufacturing, and substantial public spending. Strong global demand and the AI boom helped offset weak investment and consumption. The institutes also raised their 2025 forecast to 1.1% from 0.9%. They project the recovery will continue into 2027, supported by consumption and housing, but will lose momentum in 2028, with growth slowing to 0.4% as a shrinking labor force and declining potential output increasingly constrain the economy.
Source report
Several leading German economic research institutes have more than doubled their joint growth forecast for the current year, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of 2024. However, they caution that the overall recovery remains moderate.
According to a statement released on Thursday:
- 2026 GDP growth is now projected at 1.3%, up from the spring forecast of 0.6%
- 2027 growth forecast has been raised from 0.9% to 1.1%
- 2028 growth is expected to slow to 0.4%
Germany's better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year was driven primarily by exports, manufacturing, and substantial public spending. Strong global demand and the AI boom helped offset weakness in investment and consumer spending.
The institutes expect the recovery to continue into 2027, supported by consumption and housing. However, momentum is projected to fade by 2028, as a shrinking labor force and declining potential growth increasingly constrain output.
Source
金十数据Western