A-Share Trading Volume Shrinks to 1.65 Trillion Yuan, Shanghai Composite Falls Below 3,900

September 24 — The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment session on Thursday, with all three major indices opening lower and extending losses through the close. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.34%, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.68%.

Sector Performance

• Gainers: Thematic rotations were weak, though Fujian local stocks saw a late-session surge. The robotics concept showed relative strength, with wind power stock Jixin Technology hitting the daily limit up.
• Losers: The real estate sector faced choppy declines, while the PCB (printed circuit board) concept weakened.

Market Breadth and Volume

• Over 4,300 stocks ended the session in negative territory.
• Total turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reached 1.65 trillion yuan, contracting by 111.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

Pre-Holiday Trading Dynamics

As the last trading day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the A-share market continued the trend of declining volume and prices that began on Wednesday. Trading volume further shrank to 1.6691 trillion yuan, falling back into the year's "low-volume" range.

The Shanghai Composite Index lost the 3,900-point mark, while other major indices also broke key support levels and closed lower.

Objectively speaking, the "pre-holiday effect" left the market relatively subdued, with few attractive trading opportunities. However, compared with the consecutive low-volume sessions on September 14 and 15, the current market has shown some rebound effect (as reflected in higher candlestick bodies), leaving both bullish and bearish investors uncertain.

Looking ahead to next week — the last three trading days before the National Day holiday — the "pre-holiday risk-off" mindset may gradually give way to "post-holiday positioning," potentially leading to a more optimistic market tone.

Historical Pattern: Pre-Holiday Trading

According to Wind data backtesting, over the nine years from 2017 to 2025 — even excluding 2024 data to avoid skewing averages — the Wind All-A Index showed a "first-down-then-up" bullish structure in the final three trading days before the National Day holiday:

1. Third-to-last trading day (most risky): Excluding 2024's policy distortions, only 2 out of 8 years saw gains (25%). Average decline: -0.68%; median: -0.48%. This day typically sees the most concentrated release of pre-holiday risk aversion and the most extreme volume contraction, as funds reduce positions.

1. Last two trading days (turning bullish): The probability of gains rises to 62%, with average returns turning positive. This is not contradictory to low volume — after selling pressure exhausts, even modest buying (for post-holiday positioning and pre-holiday stabilization) can push indices slightly higher.

1. Last trading day (stable positive bias): Over nine years, the final day closed higher six times (67%). Excluding 2024, the rate was 5 out of 8 (62%), with an average gain of +0.23%. The market tends to end the pre-holiday session in positive territory.

Key Event: U.S.-China Meeting

The most significant event this week — the ongoing U.S.-China meeting — is expected to become a key focus over the weekend.

According to a research report from Kaiyuan Securities, while U.S.-China relations have shifted from a "positive elasticity variable" to a "tail-risk variable" with limited impact on overall A-share risk appetite, any concrete outcomes that alter industry earnings expectations could present structural opportunities. If substantive changes emerge in tariff negotiations, export-oriented sectors with high U.S. exposure — including light manufacturing, auto parts, and basic chemicals — could benefit.

Sector Spotlight: Robotics

Strictly speaking, aside from defensive sectors like banking and coal, only the robotics concept showed relative strength — and even then, only with localized activity.

According to Flush data, while the "wind power equipment" sector posted larger gains, the top three components — Luozhou Bearing, Weili Transmission, and Jixin Technology — are linked to robotics and bearings, suggesting the move was also tied to the robotics theme.

News Catalyst: Elon Musk recently stated in an exclusive interview with CCTV Finance that the global number of humanoid robots could reach 10 billion within 15 years, and potentially 100 billion within 20 years.

Analyst View: Orient Securities believes that Tesla's substantive push for robot mass production, along with Figure's new model, could accelerate the commercialization of robotics. The firm expects 2026 to become the first year of mass production for embodied intelligence, with manufacturers' model capabilities and scenario know-how rapidly improving — driving accelerated commercialization across the industry.

Cover image source: National Business Daily Media Library