Republicans book $10 billion in ads as Trump approval slips ahead of midterms

As Donald Trump's approval ratings decline and Republicans face significant losses in the midterm elections, the party is dramatically increasing its advertising spending. Through a sweeping media blitz, Republicans are fighting to maintain control of Congress, with ad expenditures now clearly outpacing those of Democrats.

Ad Spending by the Numbers

According to an analysis of data from AdImpact, a media tracking firm, Republican political committees have booked approximately $1 billion in advertising slots from September 1 through Election Day in early November. By comparison, Democrats have booked roughly $730 million.

These figures include spending by House and Senate candidate committees as well as political action committees (PACs), covering television, radio, streaming, and digital advertising.

Defending Slim Majorities

The surge in ad spending comes as Republicans work to defend their razor-thin majorities in both the House and Senate.

Funding is not only concentrated in key battleground districts expected to determine control of Congress but is also flowing heavily into states and districts traditionally considered safe Republican territory—areas that have now become unexpectedly competitive.

"Money vs. Message"

Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis Wednesday that this year's midterm elections are shaping up as a contest of "money versus message."

She wrote:

"The key question ultimately is whether a deluge of advertising can save Republicans as the Iran war continues to drive up prices and the overall political environment grows increasingly unfavorable for the GOP—or whether Democrats can effectively capitalize on voter discontent with the 'Trump economy,' even in states that have historically leaned heavily Republican."

In recent weeks, Democrats have shown significant improvement in polling across multiple Senate races, making a shift in Senate control suddenly a realistic possibility.

Taylor added:

"Control of the Senate is on a knife's edge."

Candidates Distance Themselves from Trump

As the political environment turns against Republicans, some key GOP candidates have begun to distance themselves from Donald Trump and certain of his policies.

Over the past week, Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, Michigan's Mike Rogers, and Ohio's Jon Husted have all called for a swift end to the Iran war—a position that clearly diverges from the White House.

Rogers said in a video this week:

"We have to bring prices down. The war with Iran has to end, and it has to end soon. Once the war is over, energy costs will drop significantly."

Massive Ad Reservations by Trump-Aligned Groups

To shore up support, Republicans have sharply increased their advertising budgets.

According to AdImpact, Maga Inc—Trump's primary super PAC—along with affiliated organizations, has booked nearly $164 million in midterm election ads.

As of the end of August, Maga Inc held more than $415 million in cash reserves.

A substantial portion of this ad spending is concentrated in states that Trump won by significant margins in 2024.

Ohio: The Top Ad Battlefield

Ohio has become the most expensive congressional election battleground in terms of ad spending. Trump won the state by 11 percentage points in 2024. Now, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is challenging Jon Husted for the seat.

Since September, Republican and Democratic campaigns and PACs have booked nearly $236 million in ads in Ohio.

The cryptocurrency industry's largest super PAC, Fairshake, has also pledged an additional $30 million for ads opposing Brown.

Texas and Michigan

In two other states that Trump won in 2024 but where Democrats now see opportunities—Texas and Michigan—ad spending has also surged.

• Texas: Maga Inc has booked over $16 million in ads to support Trump-endorsed candidate Ken Paxton. Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024.
• Michigan: No Going Back PAC has committed nearly $19 million for ads targeting Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed.

House Races Also Targeted

This political funding network is also active in House races.

• Texas: After the state redrew its congressional map last year at Trump's request, No Going Back has spent $3.7 million supporting a Republican candidate.
• Maine: The Safety and Affordability group has invested $4.6 million in a House district that Trump won by 9 points in 2024.

Trump's Frequent Appearance in Ads

According to AdImpact, Trump himself appears with remarkable frequency in midterm television and mobile ads. Across both Republican and Democratic advertisements, he has appeared nearly 1 million times.

Trump's Approval May Be a Drag

However, Trump's current approval rating of 40% may be hurting Republican candidates.

According to recent polling:

• Nearly two-thirds of registered voters believe the U.S. economy is heading in the wrong direction.
• 57% of respondents said their personal financial situation has worsened under Trump.

Democrats have sought to tie Trump to economic problems and inflation, hoping to leverage these two issues that work against the former president and his party.

Meanwhile, Republican candidates are primarily attacking Democrats on immigration and crime. Recent polls show that voters still trust Republicans more than Democrats on both of these issues.