A-share robot concept stocks surge after Musk forecasts 10 billion humanoid robots in 10 years

September 24 — The A-share robot concept sector (stock code: 885517) saw active trading in early morning sessions before retreating slightly by midday.

Xiangyang Bearing (000678.SZ) hit the daily limit up just six minutes after market open, with over 150,000 buy orders locked at the涨停板. The stock is currently trading at RMB 9.68 per share, giving it a total market capitalization of RMB 4.4 billion. Some retail investors were quick to celebrate online, calling it a "Mid-Autumn Festival gift."

Zhongma Transmission (603767) also hit the daily limit up, while other related stocks followed the upward trend, including:

• Changsheng Bearing (300718)
• Mould Technology (000700)
• Mingzhi Electric (603728)
• Wuzhou Xinchun (603667)
• Ningbo Dongli (002164)
• Wanxiang Qianchao (000559)
• Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050)

Market Catalyst: Musk's 10-Year Humanoid Robot Prediction

On September 23, Elon Musk gave a bold forecast during an exclusive interview with CCTV Finance:

• At least 1 billion humanoid robots within 10 years (or less)
• Possibly 10 billion within 15 years
• Potentially 100 billion within 20 years

Musk also described application scenarios where everyone could own a personal robot for elderly care, childcare, or one-on-one tutoring, and where a single person could control hundreds or thousands of physical robots and digital agents.

Tesla's Production Push in China

Notably, a Tesla (TSLA) team arrived in Ningbo on September 16 and began a new round of production site audits for its robotics business on September 17. This audit is expected to substantially advance the mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot, with relevant orders already placed with supply chain companies.

Overseas Developments

In mid-September, humanoid robot company Figure released its latest neural network model, Helix 2.5. Robots equipped with the new model demonstrated the ability to perform zero-shot whole-body autonomous operations in unfamiliar environments without any additional training, along with clear self-correction capabilities.

Analyst Views

Oriental Securities (HK3958) believes that Tesla's substantive push toward robot mass production and Figure's new model will accelerate the commercialization of robotics, creating investment opportunities for domestic robotics supply chain companies. The firm expects 2026 to be the first year of mass production for embodied intelligence, with本体 manufacturers' model capabilities and scenario know-how rapidly improving.

Wanlian Securities notes that the humanoid robot industry is at a "dawn moment" transitioning from technological breakthroughs to large-scale commercialization. On the supply side, Tesla, Unitree Technology (688836), Zhiyuan Robotics, and UBTECH (HK9880) are steadily advancing mass production. On the demand side, aging populations and rising labor costs provide long-term drivers. With policy and capital support, and AI large models continuously empowering robots, humanoid robots are expected to form a new industry, gradually moving from B2B to B2C markets.

Guoyuan Securities (000728) states that the humanoid robot industry is shifting from functional demonstrations to large-scale deployment and continuous operation. Key evaluation metrics for commercialization will include product reliability, task success rates, deployment cycles (883436), and unit operating costs. The firm recommends focusing on:

• Complete machine companies with batch manufacturing, scenario delivery, and continuous operation capabilities
• Core component suppliers that have entered top-tier customer supply chains, completed product validation, and achieved volume delivery capabilities

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