China's Three Ministries Jointly Deploy Stable Coal Production and Supply as Spot Price Nears 1,000 Yuan Before Heating Season

Industrial production runs uninterrupted, and urban and rural life remains brightly lit — stable and reliable energy supply is the foundation for smooth economic and social operations. Given China's energy resource endowment, coal remains the "ballast stone" that ensures electricity stability, supports residential energy use, and stabilizes the industrial sector.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the National Mine Safety Administration jointly issued a notice to comprehensively deploy work on stable coal production and supply, laying a solid energy security foundation for the upcoming heating season. By focusing on stabilizing coal supply during this critical time window, the effort not only stabilizes coal market supply and demand but also safeguards the bottom line of people's livelihoods, market expectations, and the fundamentals of economic growth.

Urgency of the Current Push for Stable Coal Production and Supply

There is a strong and immediate need to advance stable coal production and supply. In the operation of the coal market, seasonal patterns and industry practices create a unique demand rhythm. Currently, it is a key transitional period between summer and autumn: the peak summer coal consumption is gradually receding, while the rigid demand for winter heating in northern regions is building up. This is the golden window for winter stockpiling and preparation for the cold season.

The reserve work during this phase directly affects the stability of energy supply throughout the national heating season. It cannot afford delays or lag. If the optimal reserve window is missed, the concentrated rigid demand in winter could lead to tight supply and price fluctuations.

Market Signals and the Need for Price Stability

Market data has already sent clear signals that it is the right time to ensure supply and stabilize prices. Recently, the spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port has approached the 1,000 yuan per ton mark. Although annual long-term contract prices remain stable, providing a certain price buffer, the continued rise in spot prices still puts operational pressure on thermal power and heating enterprises.

Unlike industrial electricity consumption in summer, which can be flexibly adjusted, winter heating in northern regions is a rigid livelihood demand with no room for reduction. Ensuring coal supply is a tough battle for people's livelihoods that must be won.

Stabilizing Expectations, Supply Chains, and the Overall Situation

The key to stabilizing coal is to stabilize expectations, supply chains, and the overall situation. The current high coal prices stem from supply adjustments under normalized safety supervision in major production areas, combined with rising demand for winter stockpiling by end users. If the market forms an expectation of sustained price increases, it could trigger a vicious cycle of hoarding and panic buying, further amplifying the supply-demand imbalance.

By issuing a clear signal to ensure supply at this time, the authorities aim to break market speculation expectations, offset market uncertainty with policy certainty, and allow enterprises to produce with confidence, the market to operate stably, and the public to spend the winter without worry. This achieves stability in coal, electricity, heating, and public confidence.

Precision Supply Under Safety Constraints

This round of coal supply assurance is not about crude production expansion and volume increase. Instead, it is about precise supply that adheres to safety bottom lines and is scientific and orderly. The notice explicitly requires that all supply assurance work must be premised on safe production — this is an insurmountable red line.

Ensuring supply cannot come at the cost of safety, nor can safety be used as an excuse for passive supply assurance. Local authorities must strengthen production monitoring and scheduling, optimize production organization, steadily promote the resumption and full production of coal mines, accelerate the acceptance of mines in joint trial operation, and promote a steady recovery of coal output, achieving a balance between safety and supply assurance.

A Comprehensive Policy Package: Short-Term and Long-Term Measures

To comprehensively strengthen energy security, this policy addresses both immediate and long-term needs, tackling symptoms and root causes simultaneously.

• On the production side: Responsibilities of coal-producing regions and enterprises are being solidified. High-quality production capacity will be revitalized, resumption and full production accelerated, and short-term supply gaps filled to stabilize the current energy supply base.

• On the market regulation side: The core focus is on ensuring thermal coal supply. The signing and履约 of medium- and long-term thermal coal contracts will be strictly implemented, using stable contract prices and volumes to hedge against spot market fluctuations. At the same time, imported coal will be used scientifically as a supplementary and regulatory tool to flexibly adjust domestic supply-demand gaps.

• On the long-term development side: The policy is based on the overall energy security situation. It promotes the construction of coal succession capacity, normalizes capacity reserves, and establishes a flexible capacity release mechanism that can deploy reserve capacity as market conditions dictate.

This comprehensive policy "combination punch" addresses the urgent needs of the present while planning for long-term development — ensuring current supply, retaining backup options, and planning for the future — to continuously enhance the stability and resilience of energy supply.

Conclusion: Coal's Irreplaceable Role in Energy Transition

Energy security is a crucial cornerstone of national security, and stable energy supply is an important support for high-quality development. As the energy transition continues, new energy sources, limited by their intermittent and volatile nature, cannot yet fully cover society's total energy demand. Coal's role in providing a safety net and peak-shaving support remains irreplaceable.

Stabilizing coal supply means securing the "food" for industrial production and the "backbone" for people's livelihood security.

(Source: Economic Daily, Author: Wang Yichen) (Editor: Wu Xiaojuan)