Hong Kong projects labor shortage of about 130,000 by 2028, with clerical surplus of 25,000-30,000

Hong Kong, 22 September — The Labour and Welfare Bureau today released its latest "Manpower Projection Mid-term Update" report, showing that the city's overall labour shortage has eased thanks to various talent attraction and labour import measures implemented over the past three years.

According to the report, the projected manpower shortfall by 2028 has narrowed from approximately 180,000 in the previous forecast to around 130,000. However, most key industries continue to face tight labour conditions, particularly in innovation and technology, aviation, construction, urban operations, and healthcare.

Government Response to AI-Driven Job Transformation

Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Mr. Chris Sun, stated: "This mid-term update reflects that our talent attraction and labour import policies have effectively stabilised the workforce, alleviating the overall manpower shortage. However, demand in certain sectors remains strong."

He added: "In response to job restructuring driven by artificial intelligence (AI), the government will continue to work with various sectors to develop targeted measures. In addition to strengthening retraining mechanisms and offering flexible skills conversion courses for middle-aged and older employees, we will also enhance employment support for young graduates and explore ways to encourage on-the-job retraining for both employers and employees. The government will adopt a multi-pronged approach to help workers at all levels equip themselves for the new AI era."

Key Findings: Shortage Eases, Critical Sectors Still Strained

Looking ahead to 2028, the overall manpower shortage is projected to narrow from the previous estimate of 180,000 to approximately 130,000. Economic transformation and the adoption of AI have slowed the growth in labour demand, while imported talent and workers have helped supplement the workforce. Nevertheless, most critical sectors — especially innovation and technology, aviation, construction, urban operations, and healthcare — remain understaffed.

By occupational group, the manpower shortage over the next three years is expected to be concentrated among "skilled trades workers" and "service and sales workers," accounting for about 60% of the total gap. These roles, which rely on interpersonal interaction and complex craftsmanship, are less susceptible to AI replacement but face shortages due to an ageing workforce and difficulty attracting new entrants.

Conversely, as businesses expand AI use to handle routine administrative tasks, "clerical support workers" are expected to see a surplus of approximately 25,000 to 30,000 by 2028.

Imported Labour Mitigates Ageing Population Impact

Between 2023 and 2025, Hong Kong's overall labour force (excluding foreign domestic helpers) declined slightly from 3.50 million to 3.47 million. During this period, structural factors such as population ageing led to a significant reduction in the local labour force, even after accounting for new arrivals via the One-way Permit Scheme and fresh graduates.

Fortunately, various talent attraction and labour import measures provided timely supplementation, offsetting part of the decline. Without this imported workforce, the total labour force in 2025 is estimated to have been only 3.35 million.

Looking ahead to 2028, as the ageing trend continues, the overall labour force is projected to gradually decline to 3.40 million, even with new labour inflows. Without the supplementary measures, Hong Kong's labour force would fall further to approximately 3.21 million, and the overall manpower shortage would widen significantly to 300,000.

Proactive Response to AI-Driven Job Restructuring and Transformation

The report further analyses the profound impact of AI on the labour market. Research indicates that AI applications are expected to boost productivity in relevant roles by 20% to 30%. Currently, businesses are managing the transition through natural attrition, with a low risk of large-scale layoffs in the short term. However, 20% to 30% of jobs — primarily clerical positions — will face restructuring.

AI is expected to have the greatest impact on two groups:

• Fresh graduates, whose suitable job openings have dropped by about 60% compared to 2022, as entry-level roles are replaced.
• Approximately 70,000 middle-aged (aged 45–54) clerical support workers without tertiary education, who face pressure to transition.

At the same time, demand for emerging AI specialists continues to grow, particularly for "composite talents" with AI application skills and cross-disciplinary capabilities.

In response to the technological wave, the workforce must actively upgrade and transform. Mastering "human-machine collaboration" will become a basic skill, while soft skills that AI cannot replace — such as interpersonal communication, critical thinking, and problem-solving — remain core to competitiveness. The government will continue to promote "AI for All" and support lifelong learning to ensure the workforce's skills align with Hong Kong's future economic needs.

Background

The government conducts regular manpower projections to assess overall labour supply and demand trends from a macro perspective. The previous projection was released in 2024, evaluating Hong Kong's overall manpower trends and examining the labour situation across 17 selected industries for 2023 and 2028. Given the rapid adoption of AI and the fast-changing economic environment, the Labour and Welfare Bureau launched the mid-term update in 2025 to stay attuned to market dynamics and respond swiftly with policy adjustments.

Source: Southern Metropolis Daily (nddaily)