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RBNZ Governor: High Oil Prices May Push Near-Term Inflation Higher; Data to Be Assessed Before October Decision
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr stated on September 22 that persistently high oil prices are expected to push near-term inflation slightly above the assumptions in the central bank's September Monetary Policy Statement. Orr said the RBNZ will assess incoming data and global developments before its next policy decision on October 28, reiterating that the committee remains focused on the inflation outlook. He noted that significant risks to the economic outlook remain, consistent with the RBNZ's recent stance acknowledging both upside inflation risks from energy costs and downside risks to economic activity from softening domestic demand. On growth, Orr indicated that current data suggest the recovery is continuing this quarter, though unevenly across sectors. The remarks portray a central bank balancing near-term inflation driven by oil prices against a recovery that is ongoing but not yet broad-based, meaning the timing and magnitude of any further policy tightening will depend on how these two factors evolve in the coming weeks.
Source report
Source: Jinshi Data Date: September 22
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr stated that persistently high oil prices are expected to push near-term inflation slightly above the assumptions outlined in the central bank's September Monetary Policy Statement.
Orr noted that the Reserve Bank will assess incoming data and global developments ahead of its decision on October 28, reiterating that the committee remains focused on the inflation outlook.
She indicated that significant risks to the economic outlook persist, a stance consistent with the bank's recent communications. This includes acknowledging both:
- Upside risks to inflation related to energy costs
- Downside risks to economic activity stemming from softening domestic demand
On the growth front, Orr said current data suggest the recovery continued in the current quarter, although it remains uneven across different sectors of the economy.
Overall, her remarks depict a central bank balancing two key factors:
- Near-term inflation strength driven by rising oil prices
- A recovery that is still underway but not yet broad-based
This combination implies that any further policy tightening—in terms of both timing and magnitude—will depend on how these two factors evolve in the coming weeks.
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金融界Neutral / independent
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RBNZ Governor: High oil prices may push near-term inflation above September forecast