Michael Burry Boosts Short Bets on Micron, Nebius, Citing Memory Supply Surge and Price Pressure

Michael Burry, the investor famously portrayed in The Big Short, has significantly increased his bearish positions on semiconductor stocks, driven by his conviction that the memory market supply-demand dynamics are turning.

In a post on Substack, Burry disclosed that he has added to his short positions against Micron Technology, AI infrastructure firm Nebius, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), and Palantir, describing the move as "quite large in size."

The immediate catalyst was a public warning from Acer CEO Jason Chen, who cautioned that memory inventories are accumulating, new supply will gradually hit the market, and price pressure is expected to emerge around the end of 2027.

Despite the disclosure, the targeted stocks rose in short-term trading. Micron shares gained over 2% intraday, SOXX rose approximately 1.5%, and both Nebius and Palantir posted modest gains. This put pressure on Burry's short positions, but he stated that Chen's comments "align with what I believe to be the case."

The Short Thesis: AI Drives HBM Demand, but General Memory Supply Is Rebounding

Burry's core argument is that the recent memory shortage was not driven by structural demand but by a temporary supply-side misallocation. He explained that major manufacturers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—shifted significant production capacity from traditional DRAM to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to meet surging AI data center demand, creating tightness in the general memory market.

However, as these manufacturers gradually restore capacity for general memory, and new supply from multiple global regions comes online, Burry argues that "normal DRAM" output is rising. He believes the supply-demand gap will narrow, eventually putting downward pressure on prices.

Acer CEO Jason Chen's comments provided fresh support for this thesis. Chen noted in an interview that memory inventories are already building, and suppliers from various regions are releasing more capacity to the market, challenging the mainstream view that the current shortage will persist for years. Burry, citing the interview, acknowledged that interpreting the news is "fraught with uncertainty" but said its direction aligns with his own analysis.

Expanding the Short Portfolio: From Nvidia to Micron

Burry's bearish positioning on semiconductors has been building over time. According to disclosures, his firm Scion Asset Management established large put option positions in Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir in the third quarter of 2025, shortly before the fund was closed.

In 2026, Burry continued and expanded the trade in his personal capacity. In late June 2026, he shorted Nvidia, Applied Materials (AMAT), and the iShares Semiconductor ETF, rolling SOXX put options to March 2027. Two days later, he added Micron Technology to his short list, establishing a direct short position at approximately $1,051 per share. He explained that he chose direct shorting over put options because Micron's option premiums were too expensive.

This latest addition represents a further escalation of his bearish stance, signaling a growing conviction that the memory cycle has peaked.

Retail Sentiment Diverges from Burry's View

Market reaction among retail investors suggests skepticism toward Burry's bearish logic. According to Stocktwits data, retail sentiment for both Micron and SOXX was in "bullish" territory on the day of Burry's post. Sentiment for Nebius was also leaning bullish, while only Palantir showed "bearish" retail sentiment.

This divergence highlights the prevailing optimism surrounding AI-related semiconductor stocks, which stands in direct opposition to Burry's bet on oversupply and falling prices. For investors, the key question remains: when will semiconductor capacity expansion actually catch up with demand? That is the central variable underpinning Burry's entire trade.

Risk Disclaimer: Market conditions involve risk, and investment decisions should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not account for individual investors' specific objectives, financial situations, or needs. Readers should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their own circumstances. Investment decisions are made at the investor's own risk.