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Peru central bank cuts 2026 growth forecast to 3.2% on El Niño impact
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On October 18, Peru's Central Reserve Bank Governor Julio Velarde announced a downward revision of the country's 2026 economic growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2%, citing greater-than-expected impacts from the El Niño phenomenon. Speaking during the presentation of the September 2026 inflation report, Velarde noted an increased probability of more intense climate events, leading to a lowered growth projection for the primary sector, particularly fisheries and agriculture. The bank also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% and cut its 2027 growth outlook from 3.2% to 3.0%. The article explains that El Niño refers to persistent abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can cause global climate disruptions. Under global warming, strong El Niño events not only heighten extreme weather risks but also have long-term effects on agricultural production, commodity prices, and global supply chains.
Source report
Lima, March 18 — Julio Velarde, Governor of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, announced on Tuesday that the bank has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Peru downward from 3.4% to 3.2%, citing the greater-than-anticipated impact of the El Niño phenomenon.
During a presentation of the bank's September 2026 inflation report, Velarde noted that the likelihood of more severe climate events has increased. As a result, the central bank has lowered its growth expectations for the primary sector, particularly in fisheries and agriculture.
Velarde also raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% and cut the 2027 economic growth projection from 3.2% to 3.0%.
El Niño refers to the large-scale, sustained warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which often triggers climate anomalies across multiple regions worldwide. In the context of global warming, strong El Niño events not only heighten the risk of extreme weather but also generate long-term effects by disrupting agricultural production, commodity prices, and global supply chains.
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Peru Central Bank Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.2% on Stronger El Niño Impact