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Guosen Securities: Ctrip's antitrust fine removes uncertainty, international business drives revaluation
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Guosen Securities released a research report maintaining an 'Outperform' rating on Trip.com Group (09961). The report analyzes Trip.com's Q2 2026 results, noting revenue of RMB 15.7 billion (up 6% YoY) and a net loss of RMB 2.4 billion due to a RMB 5.2 billion antitrust fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation. Excluding the fine, net profit was RMB 2.7 billion. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders fell 4.3% to RMB 4.8 billion. International business, particularly Trip.com, is highlighted as a structural growth driver with revenue growth exceeding 50%. The report states the antitrust fine removes a major uncertainty, though near-term domestic revenue growth may slow due to regulatory adjustments. Guosen forecasts 2026-2028 revenue growth of 7.4%/10.8%/10.7% and adjusted net profit of RMB 16.2/17.5/19.1 billion. The broker believes current valuation does not price in overseas business growth, and a USD 5 billion share buyback provides a safety margin. Risks include intensified competition, regulatory policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks.
Source report
Guoxin Securities has released a research report on Trip.com Group (09961), covering the company's Q2 2026 performance.
Key Financial Highlights
- Revenue: RMB 15.7 billion, up 6% year-over-year
- Net Loss: RMB 2.4 billion, primarily due to a RMB 5.2 billion antitrust fine imposed by the State Administration for Market Regulation
- Adjusted Net Profit (excluding fine): RMB 2.7 billion
- Non-GAAP Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: RMB 4.8 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year
- Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 4.6 billion, down 6.5% year-over-year
- Basic Share Count: Down 4.2% year-over-year
- Non-GAAP Diluted EPS: Up 1% year-over-year
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Regulatory adjustments and macroeconomic factors led to divergent growth across business lines, with international operations emerging as a structural highlight.
| Segment | Q2 Revenue | YoY Change | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Accommodation Booking | RMB 6.6 billion | +6% (+8% excluding antitrust penalty impact) | | | Transportation Ticketing | RMB 5.4 billion | -1% | Impacted by high energy prices; railway ticketing affected by regulatory removal of certain value-added services | | Travel & Vacation | RMB 1.2 billion | +8% | Driven by overseas-only growth | | Business Travel Management | RMB 771 million | +11% | |
International Business: The core growth driver, with Trip.com revenue growth maintaining above 50%.
Outlook and Strategic Commentary
- Antitrust Fine: The resolution of the antitrust penalty removes a key uncertainty. The company has proactively removed cooperation models such as "Gold Medal" and adjusted merchant ranking rules on its platform.
- Short-Term Impact: Revenue growth is expected to slow in the near term, with the base effect normalizing from the second half of 2027.
- Long-Term Strategy: The company has clarified its G2 strategic focus on globalization and high quality. New traffic ranking rules and a service-oriented fulfillment advantage in the mid-to-high-end segment are expected to help stabilize market share.
- International Business: Trip.com is positioned as the core engine for future value revaluation.
- AI Application: AI technology has been deployed in areas such as intelligent customer service and itinerary planning, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency gains.
Investment Recommendation
Guoxin Securities has revised its forecasts downward, considering regulatory adjustments and domestic business alignment:
- Revenue Growth Forecast: 7.4% / 10.8% / 10.7% (previously higher)
- 2026 YoY Growth by Segment:
- Domestic: -0.6% (previously +2.5%)
- Outbound: +6.0% (previously +6.7%)
- Overseas-only: +39.1% (previously +39.9%)
- Adjusted Operating Profit: RMB 17.8 / 18.9 / 20.5 billion
- Adjusted Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: RMB 16.2 / 17.5 / 19.1 billion
- Corresponding Valuation: 13x / 12x / 11x
The report notes that current valuations do not yet price in overseas business growth. A USD 5 billion share buyback program is expected to provide a margin of safety. Guoxin maintains an "Outperform" rating.
Risk Factors
- Intensified industry competition
- Regulatory policy uncertainty
- International geopolitical risks
Source
金吾资讯Eastern
Part of this Story
Trip.com Group Q2 2026 Shows Resilience Amid Fine, Pushes Globalization and AI