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Peru central bank cuts 2026 growth forecast to 3.2% on stronger-than-expected El Niño impact
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Peru's central bank governor, Julio Velarde, announced on August 18 that the country's 2026 economic growth forecast has been revised downward from 3.4% to 3.2%, citing the impact of the El Niño phenomenon as more severe than previously anticipated. Speaking during a presentation of the September 2026 inflation report, Velarde noted an increased probability of stronger climate events, leading to a lowered growth projection for the primary sector, particularly fisheries and agriculture. Concurrently, the central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% and also downgraded the 2027 growth outlook from 3.2% to 3.0%. The article explains that El Niño refers to the large-scale abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which often triggers climate anomalies across the globe. In the context of global warming, strong El Niño events not only heighten the risk of extreme weather but also generate long-term effects by disrupting agricultural production, commodity prices, and global supply chains.
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Lima, October 18 — Julio Velarde, Governor of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, announced on Thursday that the bank has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Peru downward from 3.4% to 3.2%, citing the greater-than-anticipated impact of the El Niño phenomenon.
During a presentation of the bank's September 2026 inflation report, Velarde noted an increased likelihood of more severe climate events. As a result, the central bank has lowered its growth expectations for the primary sector, particularly affecting fisheries and agriculture.
Velarde also raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% and cut the 2027 economic growth projection from 3.2% to 3.0%.
El Niño refers to the large-scale, sustained warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, often leading to climate anomalies across multiple regions worldwide. In the context of global warming, strong El Niño events not only heighten the risk of extreme weather but also generate long-term effects by disrupting agricultural production, commodity prices, and global supply chains.
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Peru Central Bank Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.2% on Stronger El Niño Impact